[Military and Military Subplane] Author: Le Le

Just a few days after Iran announced that it was ¡°ready to receive the Su-35¡±, an informal list of ¡°Russian fighter aircraft export summaries¡± appeared on the Internet. The number of orders for the Su-34, Su-35 and Su-57 were listed, which seemed to be full.

Algeria's purchase of 14 Su-34s and 12 Su-57s is data consistent with previous signs. Among them, the former is the only order to see the actual model now (that is, the desert-painted Su-34, which Russia definitely does not need). This design), the latter has been double confirmed by Russia and Algeria. Iran's purchase of Su-35s has also been confirmed by Iran. 48 aircraft sounds like a lot, but news that the two parties signed a contract came out in 2022. After Israel's first air strike against Iran in 2024, the latter will purchase additional Su-35s to expand The idea of air defense capabilities. Coupled with the stimulation of this year's Israel-Iraq conflict, 48 aircraft may not really be the end.

The order for Ethiopia's six Su-35s is a bit uncertain. This African country does traditionally like Russian-made fighter jets, but its limited economic strength is not enough to bear the cost of using the Su-35. It would be more like replacing it with six second-hand Su-30s. In addition, orders for MiG-29, which have been confirmed by Iran, do not appear on this list. The Su-35SE, which once appeared in Algeria, should also be a military procurement that is far more promising than Ethiopia. It has also not been marked, slightly reducing the authenticity of the entire list. The most important thing is that even if these arms purchases are implemented, they will not be enough to solve the most fatal problem in the Russian aviation industry.

Since the day of its establishment, the entire Russian aviation industry has been in a state of chaos, with a serious lack of internal blood-making capabilities. It is clear that Russia is very dependent on external orders to promote technological progress, once the order is lost, the long-term decline. The success of the Su-35 is built in the Su-30 series best-selling worldwide, only India's Su-30MKI subsidiary exports more than 400 aircraft on the basis. Now even with Iran's 48 Su-35, the Su-35 series export scale is still very far from 100 aircraft, not enough to promote the Su-57 maturity. Algeria's purchase of 12 Su-57 aircraft, it seems to prove the performance is remarkable, but the actual delivery speed is slow, unclear, not enough to ease the negative impact of the

To put it bluntly, orders for the Su-34 and Su-35 can only allow the Russian aviation industry to continue to survive, and the maturity of the Su-57 can determine the future. Throughout the world, only India is likely to solve this problem. Just like the Su-30MKI back then, the current Su-57 first needs to be injected with R&D resources to try to solve problems technically, and then rely on large-scale mass production to verify technology before it is completely mature. If AVIC does not rise, China will be another choice, but when the J-36 and J-50 have both taken off one after another, the Su-57 is not attractive to China at all. This is why Russia spared no expense to sell almost all its core technologies when grabbing orders from India.

In comparison, the export performance of the Chinese aviation industry now, although not as Russian counterparts, but the internal blood-making capacity is very strong, and itself has a large enough civilian market support, more opened the window to radiate to the Middle East by Pakistan. Even if the J-10CE because of the time of appearance too late, the J-35 is also limited by various factors, in the end did not get the results expected from the outside world, at least in fifteen years there will not be a major crisis, and until six generations of aircraft alone globally, that is another scenario. And if Russia can not take the Indian list, five years later should consider what to do. In one word, the Chinese aviation industry can only rely on itself to survive, and live fruitfully. and Russia must explore a very spectacular export market, otherwise it will fall to the

In fact, it is meaningless to compare the J-10CE with the Su-35, because the former has entered the export market for less than five years, while the latter has been deeply involved for more than fifteen years. It is reasonable to compare the J-35 with the Su-57, but Pakistan, which can't wait for a long time, and India, which is still undetermined, have actually shown the reality to the fullest.