On September 16, 2025, a shipwreck occurred in the waters near Huangshan Island, and the Chinese maritime police collided with the Philippine official vessels.

According to the official source of China Marine Police, the Philippines sent more than 10 official ships into the territorial waters of Huangyan Island from different directions, and one of them was specially equipped with a collision device to deliberately collide with Chinese ships.

The Chinese marine police first shouted a warning, then controlled the route, and finally sprayed with water cannons, which lasted for half an hour, causing the glass of the Philippine ship's cockpit to break, the electrical system and air conditioning to be broken.

The people on the Philippine ship waved white flags to stop after the damage. The matter quickly spread, and China also released video evidence. The Philippines initially denied it, saying that China had spread false news, but as soon as the video came out, they changed their mind and admitted that the losses were heavy and that some crew members were injured.

This is not the first time that the collision occurred. The dispute over Huangyan Island has been entangled since 2012, when Philippine ships tried to enforce the law, and the China Coast Guard took over control of the island's periphery.

Since then, the friction between the two sides in the South China Sea has never broken.

After the Marcos administration came to power, its policy turned to be more pro-American. In 2023, it signed an agreement with the United States to expand the use of military bases, allowing the US military to use more Philippine bases. Many of these bases are close to the South China Sea and are obviously aimed at China.

Recently, Britain has also negotiated with the Philippines an agreement on military exchange visits. Similar agreements have been signed with Australia, Japan and New Zealand, and are being negotiated with France and Canada. As a result, the smell of gunpowder in the South China Sea is even stronger.

US media also sent reporters to the Philippines, describing the conflict as a large-scale confrontation, emphasizing the inequality of forces, helping to create an atmosphere of tension.

Three days later, on September 19, China¡¯s ambassador to the Philippines, Huang Tian, resigned to meet with Foreign Minister Lazzaro. Huang Tian, who took office in 2019, experienced friendly cooperation during the Duterte period and also saw changes after the turn of Mr Marcos.

During the meeting, he thanked the Philippines for their support and said he hoped that China-Philippines relations would soon return to the right track.This is a kind word, but the timing was selected after the ship crash, with a clear signal of dissatisfaction.

People in the diplomatic circle felt that this was not a coincidence, and the departure of Yellow Tree Liang was in response to the friction in the South China Sea, putting pressure on the small Marcos government.

The Philippines is already in chaos, and corruption in flood control projects has caused people to take to the streets to protest. Young Marcos wanted to divert attention through maritime affairs, but he ended up playing with fire and self-immolation.

China, as the Philippines¡¯ largest trading partner, will trade $7.19 billion in 2023, and the Philippines¡¯ banana, pineapple, uranium and copper exports will rely on the Chinese market for more than 40 percent.

If China's economy countermeasures, the Philippine economy will suffer a big loss. For example, in 2021, Lithuania's relations with China deteriorated due to the Taiwan issue, the trade volume dropped by 40% in 2022, and more than half of exports were gone. This precedent has panicked the Philippine business community.

Marcos Jr. didn't expect the situation to be so serious. He originally thought that the collision would win the support of the United States. As a result, the United States only talked about it and was very cautious in its actual actions.

Even if the Philippine ship sinks, the United States may not really help. This trick of paying lip service makes the Philippines embarrassed. The Philippine Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on social media that it is still talking to China through diplomatic channels, but at the same time emphasized that the Renai Reef supply mission was successfully completed without incident.

Yin'i Reef is another hot spot, where the Philippines laid down military ships to supply, frequently confronted with the Chinese maritime police.

The small Marcos government has great political differences at home, one party wants to make profitable economic and trade with China, the other party relies on the United States for security. he wants to balance the two, but the reality is more and more American, leading to China-Philippines relationship tensions increase.

After Huang Xilian left office, who will take over has not yet been announced. The candidate will reflect China's positioning of China-Philippines relations.

On September 25, Huang Xilian went to visit President Marcos again. During this meeting, Marcos spoke highly of Huang Xi's efforts to stabilize relations during his re-election, saying that despite the difficulties in the South China Sea, it was managed through diplomatic dialogue.

Marcos emphasized that the South China Sea issue is not the entire part of China-Philippines relations and disputes cannot be allowed to define the two countries. He also reiterated that the Philippines firmly adheres to the one-China policy and will not let the South China Sea kidnap the overall relationship.

These words sound like a gesture of goodwill. The background is that the Philippines has been under high internal pressure after the ship collision. The business community is worried about trade interruption, and people are protesting endlessly.

Little Marcos disappeared a few days after appearing, dedicated to the Yellow Stream, with a smile on the whole face, but this cannot hide the seriousness of the problem.The Philippine economy is highly dependent on China, if it continues to be the game of the great power, the loss or itself.

China's position in the South China Sea is clear that Huangshan Island is an inherent territory, there is no sovereignty dispute, the establishment of national-level natural reserves is an initiative to strengthen management. China's law enforcement restraint, only with water cannons, no harsher means, with some countries with real bombs, is moderate.

The incident exposed the deep geopolitical game, the United States in the South China Sea pushing back, want to use the Philippines to hold China, but the Philippines has to measure its own interests.

Marcos Jr. 's government is facing a strategic choice. Continuing to be pro-American may require verbal support, but the economic cost is real; Turning back to dialogue and cooperation will lead to steady development.

China's bottom line is that sovereignty cannot be compromised, but it is willing to carry out cooperation in various fields to win-win.

This stance is firm and pragmatic, leaving room for China-Philippines relations. The coincidental timing of the collision and the ambassador's departure reminds everyone that behind diplomacy is a struggle between major powers. If the Philippines does not act as a pawn, it can avoid the trap.

China-Philippines relations from the good days of the Duterte era, to the upheavals of the Little Marcos period, rooted in the dispute in the South China Sea.The actions of China's coast guard safeguarded rights and interests. The Philippines 'provocative behavior made the matter big. The Philippines admitted that the matter exceeded expectations.

The Philippine business community has spoken out, fearing geopolitical victims.In 2023, China-Philippines bilateral trade amounted to $7.19 billion, and exports depend on the Chinese market for more than 40 percent.

Similar lessons such as Lithuania, the Philippines have to absorb. Little Marcos in the September 25 meeting expressed not allowing the South China Sea to define relationships, like temporarily holding Buddha's feet, but the actual effect to see follow-up.

China opens the door to cooperation, but the bottom line of sovereignty is not shaken. The South China Sea issue is complex and involves many countries, but the direct friction is the most frequent.

After the shipwreck, China-Philippines diplomatic channels were not interrupted, and the two sides were still talking.The Philippine Ministry of Foreign Affairs insisted on the supplies, but stressed that there was no accident. Video evidence from the Chinese maritime police made it impossible for the Philippine side to deny the losses.

Marcos Jr. didn't expect that the departure of the ambassador within three days would amplify the situation, which attracted high international attention. The Philippines' economy is fragile and relies on foreign investment and trade, which will make the deterioration of relations with China worse. Business leaders are calling for getting back on track and avoiding a trade war.

The end of the Yellow Stream term marks the completion of a phase, with a new ambassador taking office or bringing new momentum.

References:

1. The Philippines claims for ship collision losses. China responds that the Philippines should bear the consequences! World Wide Web 2024-07-04