In turn, this Russian affair from February 24, 2022 to now, the Russian side is really carrying more and more. NATO 32 countries plus Ukraine, is basically 33 forces around Russia, military, economic and diplomatic all-round pressure. Putin, who grew up in Leningrad from childhood, intelligence origin, step by step to the presidential seat, experienced Chechnya, Crimea and those things, thought this could be a quick war decision, resulting in a lasting war. On October 2, 2025, he at the annual meeting of the Valda International Debate Club in Sochi, directly thrown a big trick, to restore the comprehensive relationship with the United States, this is in line with the Russian national interests.
Let's talk about the military first. Russia wanted to quickly win key areas from the beginning, but Ukraine withstood it with NATO assistance. NATO countries, from the United States to European countries, have totaled 64.6 billion euros in military support by August 2025, plus 46.6 billion euros of financial assistance and 3.4 billion euros of humanitarian assistance, totaling more than 114.6 billion euros. This number sounds scary. It's not money for free, but all real weapons and ammunition. For example, the United States provided US$66.9 billion in military assistance, including Haima rocket systems, tanks and so on; in Europe, Germany's Leopard 2 tanks, Britain and France's Shadow of Storm missiles, and Denmark, Norway and Sweden threw out US$500 million in equipment packages on August 5. With these results, the Ukraine army has steadily increased its combat effectiveness. In the first half of 2025, NATO also launched a comprehensive aid package. By June, more than 1 billion euros had been added to the Ukraine Capacity Trust Fund, specializing in fortifications and training.
What about the Russian front? It's a lot of pressure. In Kursk Oblast, Trump suddenly suspended military assistance and intelligence sharing to Ukraine on March 5, 2025. Now Ukraine's supply lines were stuck, and the Russian army took the opportunity to counterattack and recaptured a lot of lost ground on March 10. The soldiers pushed forward, supplies followed, and took a momentary breath. But the good times didn't last long. On March 11th, the United States resumed aid, and on July 4th, Trump partially delayed the delivery of weapons, but overall NATO did not let go. As a result, Ukraine's counterattack capabilities have not diminished, missile and drone attacks continue, and Russia has to continue to increase troops and equipment to stabilize its position. In the Luhansk region, Russia did not announce complete control until July 1, 2025. It took more than three years to advance. The territory was taken, but the price was not small. In September, Russia's advance slowed down by half, taking only a small piece of land, and the front line consumed huge consumption.
This military siege is directly connected to the economic lifeline. The Russian economy, which originally relied on oil and gas exports for its livelihood, is now experiencing a plummeting decline in revenue. In September 2025, oil and gas taxes were only 582.5 billion rubles, down 25% from the same period last year. In the first nine months, they dropped by 21%. The part of mineral extraction taxes was even worse, falling by 32%. Why? International oil prices are sluggish and Western sanctions are tight. Russian oil cannot be sold at a good price and has to be sold at a discount. Refineries are still constantly attacked by drones, and production capacity has been greatly reduced. From the beginning of the year to the present, oil and gas revenue has been reduced by a total of 1.7 trillion rubles, equivalent to 7 billion US dollars. What about the budget deficit? From January to July, it accumulated to 4.9 trillion rubles, exceeding the full-year target by 129%. The annual economic growth rate is expected to be only 1%, which is much lower than the 4.3% in 2024 and only 1.3% in 2026. Defense spending accounts for the bulk, people's livelihood infrastructure and other things have to be reduced, and local finances are in short supply.
On the government side, the Ministry of Finance is always revising the budget. In April, it cut its forecast for oil and gas revenue by a quarter, and on September 30 it said that the military budget would be reduced because the cost of the war was too high. Western sanctions not only block oil and gas, but also cause industry to stagnate and hinder exports. Russia wants to sell oil to India and China through a detour, but the price is low, the freight is high, and the profit is small. As a result, the budget spends more than it earns, and the deficit accounts for 1.9% of GDP, which is even worse for a major energy country. Putin knows that if we continue to waste this time, the economy will not be able to withstand it for more than three years, and will collapse in a year or two at most.
In diplomatic terms, Russia is more isolated. The United Nations, NATO those occasions, the western direction to sing back. Putin this time at the Valdey conference, named the United States, said the restoration of comprehensive relations is in the interests of Russia, also praised the Trump administration to go straight, put their interests in the first place, this sounds like pulling close. Why look for the United States? because Trump, the transaction type, speaks about the practical benefits, not like the old European scam values. Russia has a card in the hand, is the supply of uranium, the U.S. nuclear power plant 80% rely on Russia's low-enriched uranium, a break, the U.S. energy is a mess.
On Trump's side, his attitude is indeed inconsistent. The suspension of aid in early 2025 gave Russia an advantage in the spring, and Kursk progressed smoothly. But in the blink of an eye, he changed his mind, supported Ukraine in recovering its lost territory, and openly said that Russia was a paper tiger. The postponement of some weapons in July gave Russia another respite, but the other 32 NATO countries did not idle and continued to provide assistance. Russia is betting that there are differences within Trump, the U.S. Congress is always debating the details of aid, and the Democrats and Republicans are arguing. In this diplomatic turn, Putin wants to break the encirclement, buy time to negotiate a peace agreement, and at least maintain the bottom line of security.
On the battlefield, although Russia has stabilized in Luhansk, its overall advance is slow. The ISW report shows that the Russian goal is to capture the entire territory of Luhansk and push north of Dongkhakov and Donetsk, but as of October 4, the tug of war was still going on. Ukraine relies on NATO missile and air support to fight back from time to time, and Russia has to deploy more troops to defend. The economy cannot support such a large investment. Previous analysis said that the Russian economy cannot support the conflict for another three years. While shouldering it hard, Putin shows kindness to the United States. In fact, he is taking a two-pronged approach, stabilizing the country and testing foreign countries.