The Iranian nuclear issue once made the world nervous, but looking at East Asia, Japan's nuclear material hoarding and trends are the focus for China, the United States and Russia to tighten their security lines at the same time.
Why can the position of the three major countries be highly consistent as long as it involves Japan's nuclear weapons?
Japan's nuclear material reserves and its nuclear wastewater problem
Japan has always lived as a "victim", stressing that it is the only country that has suffered a nuclear strike, but avoids it lightly, never mentioning what it was for.
Moreover, we checked Authoritative report of the International Atomic Energy AgencyDiscover the existing Japan. 47 tons of uranium, can be manufactured 6000 nuclear warheads, second in the world, after the United States and Russia.
These nuclear materials, namely, are accumulated for nuclear power generation, but in reality, such reserves in any country are enough to arouse external alert.
China has always stressed that Japan should strictly fulfill its international non-proliferation obligations. andThe Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons has long been binding on Japan.
For decades, Japan has continuously promoted nuclear power projects, and uranium reserves have increased year by year. This insistence, people have to think a lot: what Japan really wants is only nuclear power?
Japanese officials have repeatedly reiterated the "three non-nuclear principles" of "not possessing, not manufacturing and not introducing nuclear weapons". But what are the facts?
Declassified archives and international media disclosuresAs early as the Cold War, Japan and the United States reached a secret treaty to allow the U.S. military to carry nuclear weapons into the port. These historical details make the "no-nuclear three principles" more like a paper slogan.
In reality, Japan’s right-wing forces are constantly pushing for the “nuclear sharing” issue, demanding the U.S. military to deploy nuclear weapons in Japan.In 2021, the self-government party openly proposed, and in 2024, the party’s top officials even advocated the formal discussion of the introduction of U.S. nuclear weapons.
These actions have far exceeded the original policy bottom line. For China, this is by no means a fuss.
The Fukushima nuclear accidentLater, Japan's nuclear safety management capabilities have become the object of global doubts. Japan has discharged into the ocean for more than three years 100,000 tons of nuclear sewage, and it is still produced every day 70 tons of waste water。 Although the International Atomic Energy Agency recognizes Japanese data, China and South Korea have clearly expressed concerns。
Even if nuclear power plants are like this, if Japan does have nuclear weapons in the future, the risk of chaotic management will inevitably double. Once 47 tons of plutonium are lost, the hidden dangers of terrorism and nuclear proliferation will accelerate. As long as there is a slight omission, not only China, but also the entire Asia-Pacific and even the world will bear the consequences.
If Japan really crosses the nuclear threshold, the East Asian arms race is bound to escalate. South Korea has already called for the development of independent nuclear weapons from all walks of life; North Korea has always taken nuclear self-protection as its core strategy. Once Japan has nuclear weapons, it is only a matter of time before South Korea and North Korea follow suit. This is no longer a theoretical deduction, but a chain reaction of reality.
An India-Pakistan-style nuclear confrontation, which has brought long-term tension to South Asia. Once East Asia falls into a similar dilemma, the security situation in the whole region will become extremely fragile. For China, we should not only face the direct threat from Japan, but also guard against the systemic risks brought by regional nuclear proliferation.
China and Russia's nuclear attitude to Japan, Japan should never hold nuclear weapons
The U.S. attitude on Japan's nuclear issue has been full of contradictions.On the surface, the U.S. provides Japan with a "nuclear umbrella" that promises to defend against threats. U.S. Department of Defense Official ReportThe Pentagon has long been worried that Japan will "run out of control" and once it possesses independent nuclear weapons, it may bring uncontrollable risks to US troops stationed in Japan.
Moreover, it was the United States who bombed Japan with an atomic bomb. Although Japan now appears to be very obedient on the surface, it is uncertain whether Japan will retaliate against the United States in the future when it holds nuclear weapons.
The U.S. is monitoring the flow of Japan’s nuclear materials while tacitly promising its development of civilian nuclear energy, in fact balancing Japanese control with regional strategic interests. But this balance is very fragile. History’s lessons tell the U.S. that once allies become nuclear powers, the power of speech is greatly weakened.
Russia is unambiguous about Japan's nuclear movements. Putin has three times publicly stressed that "Japan must never cross the red line without nuclear weapons."。Russia's Far East oil and gas base is extremely close to Japan, and Russia cannot tolerate any nuclear threat.
In order to prevent Japan from increasing its nuclear capabilities, Russia has long deployed a new type of missile defense system on the Chiang Mai Islands. Russia’s approach is straightforward: as long as Japan has a shift, military means will follow.
Our China's concern about Japan's nuclear issue is not only about geographical security, but also stems from profound historical memories. The history of Japan's aggression decades ago and the Nanjing Massacre has long been written into the fundamental understanding of bilateral relationsThe accumulation of uranium materials and the rise of right-wing forces have forced China to strengthen its awareness of prevention.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has stated on many occasions that once Japan crosses the line on the nuclear issue, China will definitely take effective measures to protect national security. At the United Nations and other occasions, China, together with the United States and Russia, continues to urge the international community to strengthen verification and supervision of Japan's nuclear materials.
Although Japan has a lot of nuclear materials, it is actually not easy to actually manufacture and deploy nuclear weapons. According to the Basic Law on Atomic Energy andThe Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons states that if Japan openly turns to military use, the international community will inevitably initiate sanctions procedures.
All Japan's nuclear facilities are strictly supervised by the International Atomic Energy Agency.Once the technology transfer is discovered, it will not only be "watched" by the three great powers, but also lose economic and diplomatic space.The Japanese society is not a piece of iron on nuclear weapons, the constitutional amendment is very difficult, and the reality is not a little resistance.
Once large amounts of uranium material fall into the hands of extremists, the risk of nuclear terrorism cannot be ignored. The technical threshold for making "dirty bombs" is not high, the key is in materials. Japan's current uranium reserves are theoretically enough for dozens of terrorist organizations to obtain nuclear raw materials.
When nuclear pollution attacks occur in big cities, the consequences are extremely severe. In addition to direct casualties, social panic and long-term economic stagnation can lead. The bottom line that the three major countries must not compromise。
China-U.S. Russia is often divided in international affairs, but in the issue of Japan's nuclear possession, the attitude is clear and the cooperation is close. Japan’s nuclear presence means regional and global instability.There is no benefit to any of the three countries.
China should prevent the recurrence of historical tragedies, while the United States and Russia should ensure their respective geographical interests and strategic balance. Once Japan breaks through the nuclear threshold, everyone will have to pay a heavy price. Therefore, the tacit understanding of the three kingdoms is stronger than imagined.
Over the decades, Japan’s accumulation of nuclear energy has surpassed the vast majority of countries, but the greater the capacity, the greater the responsibility.The rare consensus of the three great powers is the alarm clock for Japan and the protection of the entire East Asia.
China has always advocated peaceful coexistence and opposed the proliferation of nuclear weapons. As long as Japan adheres to international constraints and focuses on developing the economy and society, East Asia's stability is guaranteed.
Japan's nuclear issue is by no means a "small matter" for one country. The consensus of the three major countries is precisely to protect the hard-won peace of mankind.
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Japan's "non-nuclear" say and "nuclear possession" plan
2023-05-23 04:50 · Light grid