This time, U.S. President Trump personally spoke, putting the soybean issue on the table. U.S. Finance Secretary Bessent also followed the talk, saying the fifth round of negotiations is about to see a “major breakthrough.”
It seems that the United States is in high spirits, but in fact it is in internal and external difficulties and has to take the initiative. On the surface, this matter of soybeans is a business, but in fact it affects a deeper contest between China and the United States. What is talked about at the negotiating table is agricultural products, and what is behind it is who can grasp the situation.
The topic of soybeans is back on the stage, not by chance.
China and the United States have had a lot of dealings around the soybean issue. Soybeans have been a key commodity in the trade relationship between the two countries over the past decade. The demand for American agricultural products in the China market was once very large, and American agricultural states have benefited a lot from this.
However, the situation has changed over the years.The trade friction began when soybeans were the main source.China has reduced imports from the United States, instead of buying from other countries, including Brazil, Argentina and other South American countries.
Up to now, the export channels of U.S. soybeans are blocked, and domestic inventory pressure is increasing. Farmers in traditional agricultural states in the Midwest are complaining, and some even openly question whether the government's trade policies are shooting themselves in the foot.
And these states, exactly where the Trump votes came from.The election situation is tight, and Trump can’t care.So, soybeans again became the “priority” on the negotiating table.
However, China's current food strategy has long been adjusted. No longer relying on a single supplier as in the past, but increasing stability through multi-purpose procurement and increasing independent production.
Trump personally appeared to stabilize the domestic situation.
Trump jumped out to dominate soybeans and looked like he was taking control of the situation but was actually pushed back by reality.The last time he personally intervened in trade talks was last summer, when he tried to push for additional tariffs on Chinese high-tech products, but China reacted coldly and was not angry.
As a result, related industries in the United States have been affected, and some companies have begun to consider moving their supply chains out of the United States.
This time, the agricultural issue pushed Trump back to the forefront. It's not that he doesn't know that once the agricultural ticket warehouse is loosened, even the support of the whole Midwest will be shaken.
In recent months, the American Farmers’ Association and some agricultural banks have frequently voiced hopes that the government can take concrete action to tackle the difficult exports of soybeans, with Republican grassroots lawmakers constantly putting pressure on the White House, and Trump had to act to reassure people.
However, China's attitude has never changed. Faced with Trump's high-profile statement, China did not respond positively, only emphasizing that communication between China and the United States should be based on mutual respect.
This means that China is not in a rush to make concessions, compared with China, which is more willing to use soybeans as a keynote in negotiations than an urgent problem to solve.
The finance minister is loud, but the reality is not shaken.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Basent has recently mentioned on many occasions that Sino-US negotiations have made "positive progress" and that there may be "major breakthroughs" in the coming weeks.
The statement sparked expectations within the United States, especially in the financial markets and agriculture-related enterprises, hoping to see clear results as soon as possible.
But from the current situation, this optimism is difficult to translate into real results. There has been no substantial progress on the core issues on the negotiating table.
For example, the United States has so farined high tariffs on some Chinese goods, especially on product restrictions under the name of "national security", and the U.S. has not shown signs of willingness to compromise.
On the other hand, China has not relented. What China hopes is to receive a response in terms of eliminating unreasonable tariffs and relaxing restrictions on technology exports. If these problems are not solved, it will not be cost-effective for China to simply rely on purchasing agricultural products in exchange for a "symbolic achievement."
More importantly, these problems cannot be solved in a short time. The structural contradictions between China and the United States can no longer be eased by a round of negotiations.
Even if the two sides signed a procurement agreement, it could not change the fundamental differences.This also made the so-called “major breakthrough” more like a political statement than a substantial change.
Soybeans are just the entrance, and the real amount is deeper.
Puting soybeans back on the table of negotiations seems to be a signal of a trade resumption, in fact, a shortcut of a new round of China-U.S. game.As global supply chain changes intensify, China no longer sees the United States as the only source of agricultural products, but focuses more on security and flexibility.
Over the past year, China has expanded its agricultural procurement paths globally and strengthened its agricultural cooperation with South America and Southeast Asia, which is clearly prepared in advance for future uncertainty.
The United States is facing a dilemma. On the one hand, it hopes to expand soybean exports and stabilize the agricultural market; on the other hand, it is unwilling to let go of high-tech exports. This strategy of "wanting to occupy both ends" has caused negotiations to fall into repetition.
China has stated many times that cooperation is two-way and cannot always give benefits unilaterally. Especially in terms of technology and industrial development, China emphasizes fair competition rather than restricted development.
At present, some companies in the U.S. have realized that short-term government operations alone are difficult to change the big trend. Especially in the manufacturing and processing sectors, more and more companies are beginning to look for long-term partners abroad to reduce risk.
This also reflects that it is difficult to rebuild stable economic and trade relations solely through shouting and political posturing.
On the surface, soybeans are just ordinary agricultural products, but behind them are the economic interests and political considerations of the two countries. Trump's personal departure, the U.S. finance minister's optimistic forecast, are all looking for a breakthrough for the trouble ahead.
But China's reaction tells us that the negotiations will not be easy to pace.The two sides may some consensus in the short term, but the real shift will depend on whether the U.S. is willing to make substantial changes on deeper issues.
The game between China and the United States has never been just about several issues on the negotiating table, but how to find mutually acceptable positions in the future global pattern.
Source of information:
US President Trump's visit to agricultural states in 2025 and content of his speech
Trump openly stated in Iowa that he would "sell soybeans back to China" and put forward a political slogan of "expanding procurement three to four times".