Japan has just elected a “new old face” as prime minister, High Market, the right-wing female politician known for her “hardness toward China,” who won the Democratic Party’s presidential election, marking the Japanese political arena’s further inclination toward conservative forces.
However, the response of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs to this is as short as only two sentences, but every word is full of weight, neither fierce nor vague, and clearly draws the bottom line.
At the same time, Takaichi Sanae also released a vague but intriguing signal: she wants to have a "frank dialogue on the Taiwan issue" with China. In a word, it ignited a sensitive minefield. As soon as the election ended, the diplomatic gunpowder between China and Japan began to heat up.
Two Chinese words.
China’s Foreign Ministry responded with the first sentence: “We notice the outcome of the Japanese Democratic Party’s presidential election, it’s Japan’s internal affairs.”
This is not a conspiracy, but it conveys a clear attitude: China does not interfere in Japan’s internal affairs, but it will not immediately welcome or congratulate Japan for changing its leader, especially when the person has a distinct right-wing stance.
In fact, this is not the first time that this response has emerged. Similarly, when the results of the 2020 U.S. election were just released, China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs also used the word "notes."
This is not a coincidence of language, but a customary routine of diplomatic language, which conveys a kind of strategic determination: not being led by emotions and not prejudging positions on the future.
And the second sentence is the focus: "We hope that the Japanese side adheres to the various principles and consensus reached between China and Japan so far, and acts consistently on history, Taiwan and other issues."
The core of this red line has two, one is the historical issue, and the second is the Taiwan issue.The historical issue is not to mention, the four political documents between China and Japan have long written that Japan should face the history of aggression and adhere to peaceful development.
And the history of High Market Early, just stumbled on the opposite side of this line. She frequented Yasukah Shrine several times, the last time in 2023, and also publicly stated in the media that "Japan has not launched an aggression war."
This is not just a difference in historical cognition, but a direct provocation to the emotions of the China people.
More sensitive is the Taiwan issue. The China-Japan Joint Statement clearly wrote that Japan "fully understands and respects the China government's position on the Taiwan issue" and promises to "not develop any official relations with Taiwan."
However, takaichi sanae is a staunch supporter of the saying that "something happens to Taiwan Province means something happens to Japan". During her tenure as the chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party's political investigation in 2021, she said that Japan should jointly respond to the Taiwan Strait crisis with the United States and promote constitutional amendments to expand the authority of the Self-Defense Forces.
From this perspective, China's "two words" are short, but the information density is extremely high.The first sentence is the force, the second sentence is the red line.
This is not a formality, but a demarcation line for the newly appointed Japanese prime minister: Sino-Japanese relations can continue, but you must abide by the rules, especially on the Taiwan issue, and don't touch that high-voltage line.
Gao Shi early Miao's "dialogue" attitude
Takaichi sanae's election was not unexpected, but as soon as she won the election, she mentioned that she "hoped to have a frank dialogue with China on the Taiwan Province issue", which caused quite a stir. It sounds like she wants to open a communication opening for the tense Sino-Japanese relations, but after careful consideration, the logic behind this sentence is far from simple.
Let's first look at Takashi's "label" combination: extreme right wing, Abe's protege, and China hawks. This is not posted by the outside world, but a political line she has developed step by step.
She used to serve as Defense Minister and continued to promote the "Defense Fee Doubling Plan" during her tenure; she proposed the establishment of a "National Security Agency" in 2020 to quickly respond to "threats from China" in emergencies; she is also a frequent visitor to conservative media such as Sankei Shimbun, and has long been advocating that "China is threatening Japan's national security."
Her attitude toward Taiwan is more direct.In 2021, she made it clear at a policy briefing: "Taiwan has something to do with Japan, and Japan must be prepared for war."
She supported “unofficial contacts” with senior Taiwanese officials, pushed Japan to communicate with the Taiwan authorities on “defense cooperation” and even publicly praised the “democratic system” of the Taiwanese authorities.
In this context, her proposal to "talk to China about Taiwan" does not sound like a solution to the problem, but rather like an exploration of China's bottom line.
The Chinese government has long stated clearly that the Taiwan issue cannot be negotiated, and there is no common management of the so-called "state of the Taiwan Sea".
So what exactly does Takaichi want to talk about? Some analysts believe that she may be trying to alleviate the anxiety of some economic circles in Japan. After all, China is Japan's largest trading partner, and the economic circles have always been worried about the extreme China policy.
She sent the signal of "dialogue", which may be to stabilize emotions, or to set a "I am willing to communicate" personality in advance for possible diplomatic frictions in the future.
But the problem is that true dialogue requires sincerity and a common cognitive foundation. If her understanding of the Taiwan issue is still the kind of "Taiwan is the front line for Japan and the United States to jointly defend," then this "dialogue" is just another form of provocation.
The Taiwan issue is not a minefield where you can talk if you want to talk about it
The Taiwan Province issue is the bottom line of Sino-Japanese relations and the most ambiguous part of China's foreign policy. No matter from the legal, historical or practical point of view, this is China's internal affair, and no one else can dictate what to do.
It is necessary to reiterate one thing: In the Joint Statement of the Japanese Government on the establishment of China-Japanese relations in 1972, the Japanese government explicitly acknowledged that “the Government of the People’s Republic of China is the only legitimate government in China” and “completely understood and respected the position of the Chinese government on the Taiwan issue”.
If you really want to talk about Taiwan, first answer a question: Do you accept the one-China principle? if the answer is no, then the dialogue has no basis from the beginning.
If her "dialogue" wants to discuss how to maintain the status quo in the Taiwan Strait and prevent the escalation of conflicts, she has already crossed the line. China's position is that there is no room for the so-called "maintenance of the status quo." The reunification of China is a historical process, and any external intervention is a provocation.
More seriously, the assertion that "Taiwan has something to do with Japan" is not only a political provocation, but also a legal transgression.
The subtext of this sentence is that Japan regards Taiwan as a matter within its security interests and does not even rule out military intervention if necessary. This not only violates the political consensus between China and Japan, but also seriously violates the principles of sovereignty and non-interference in the United Nations Charter.
And once this is done, Japan itself is difficult to escape the consequences.Once the bottom line of China-Japan relations is broken, the most direct impact is the freezing of bilateral diplomacy, and economic and trade cooperation is completely obstructed.
Data from the Japan External Trade Organization has long explained the problem. China is Japan's largest export market, accounting for more than 20%. Once relations deteriorate, many fields such as Japan's manufacturing, tourism, and technological exchanges will be severely affected.
The greater cost is security risks. If Japan follows the radical line of the United States on the Taiwan Strait issue or even intervenes militarily, the risk of war will rise sharply.
Once a conflict breaks out, the Japanese archipelago will no longer be an "isolated island in the Far East", but the frontier of conflict. China has long warned that any support for "Taiwan independence" is playing with fire.
conclusion
The rise of Gao's early-size has not changed the starting point for China-Japan relations, but has entered a more complex phase.
If she continues her right-wing route toward China, especially on the Taiwan issue, then China’s “two words” have written down the possible outcomes in advance.
The Chinese reaction was not emotional, no exaggerated word, but the sentence had power.It was not indifference, but calm; not restraint, but clarity.
The future direction of Sino-Japanese relations lies not in how much China says, but in whether Japan, especially sanae takaichi, can really figure out where it stands and what topics it touches and how serious the consequences will be.
The Taiwan Province issue is not a dinner table topic that can be talked about if you want to talk about it, but a bottom line test that must respect history, keep promises and draw a clear line. If Takaichi Sanae really wants to have a dialogue, he must first put down his provocative attitude and show sincerity. Otherwise, the dialogue is just smoke, and what is hidden behind it may be a bigger storm.
Source of information: Takaichi says he is willing to discuss the "Taiwan issue" with China, Japanese scholar: Too naive-Observer.com