During this time, the fact that the United States supplied Ukraine with long-range missiles has caused great concern in the world.
U.S. Vice President Vance once said that Trump was the only one left to sign it.
However, Trump was very cautious and did not sign late.
According to the latest news, Russian Sputnik News Agency, Moscow, October 3: According to Reuters quoted sources, the United States is unlikely to supply Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, but may supply other long-range weapons to Europe to provide them to Kiev.
Here, it can be regarded as a general conclusion on this matter: Trump no longer takes the risk of escalating the war and no longer chooses to be tough.
Let's talk about why the "Tomahawk" is yellow first. Since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Ukrainian President Zelensky has repeatedly asked the United States for a "Tomahawk". Every time he publicly said that this is a "big killer" that can "directly hit the hinterland of Moscow and force Russia to sit down." Negotiate ".
"Taxic" is the core of the U.S. Navy's long-range strike, the longest can hit more than 2,500 kilometers, can be equipped with conventional warheads and nuclear warheads, but can also be attached to low-air flight to avoid interception, but Trump has always been on the side, the reason is actually quite real.
The United States 'own "Tomahawk" inventory is not large. If they really send large quantities to Ukraine, their strategic stocks in places such as the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific will not be enough, which will affect the layout of the United States in these regions. Looking at the second point, the "Tomahawk" range can cover the entire Russia. If Ukraine uses it to hit sensitive places like Moscow, Russia's nuclear deterrence mechanism may be triggered.
Putin specifically warned on October 2 that if the United States gives Ukraine such weapons, it "will definitely escalate the situation a lot" and may "ruin the recent improvement in Russia-US relations." Another key issue is that Ukraine does not have equipment capable of launching Tomahawks-their existing Haimas rocket launchers simply cannot use this missile.
If the United States provides special launchers again, it will be regarded as "directly participating in the war," which is completely inconsistent with Trump's previous statement that "he does not want to be involved in the conflict."
Since the Tomahawk won't give it, what does the United States intend to give it? The answer is the ERAM missile, whose full name is the "Extended Range Attack Munition." In fact, as early as August 23, the U.S. government approved the relevant arms sales contract to give Ukraine 3350 ERAM pieces, with a total value of US$850 million.
But here's a detail-most of the money comes from European countries. To put it bluntly, this missile is modified on the basis of JDAM (Joint Direct Attack Munition). It belongs to an air-launched cruise missile and can reach a maximum of 450 kilometers, and recently it has reached 240 kilometers.
The F-16 fighter jet in Ukraine's hands, or the modified Soviet fighter jet, can fly with it. It is mainly used to attack military bases, ammunition depots and supply lines behind the other side.
The advantages of ERAM are obvious in comparison to the “Tax” model. The most prominent is that it is cheap, the single one is about $25,000, not even fifty percent of the “Tax” price. And it is a modular design, can be adapted to different operational tasks and is very flexible.
In addition, although the range is not as far as that of the "Tomahawk", it can still reach key places from the eastern front line of Ukraine to the Russian mainland-such as military hubs such as Belgorod and Kursk in Russia, all of which are within its strike range.
But there is no way to hide the shortcomings of ERAM. It flies slowly, only about 735 kilometers per hour (Mach 0.6), and has no stealth capability. It is not difficult for Russia's air defense systems such as S-400 and Pantsir to stop it.
In addition, the U.S. Department of Defense specifically stated that if Ukraine wants to use ERAM to attack targets in Russia, it must greet the United States in advance for approval-this means that the United States actually holds half of how effective this missile can play.
There is also an interesting point – most of the money is not from the United States, but from the European countries.U.S. officials found out that Denmark, the Netherlands, the NATO countries, not only helped in the development of ERAM, but also bought the missile and handed over to Ukraine.
This pattern of “Europe spending money, American supply” is exactly in line with Trump’s intention – he has always shouted “let allies take more responsibility” – while also allowing the United States to avoid the political risk of direct arms sales, without directly facing Russia’s anger.
First, the longer the conflict in Russia and Ukraine lasts, the greater the trouble in Europe – the energy is not enough, and there are a bunch of refugees to be resettled, and the EU has to rush to strengthen Ukraine’s military forces to end the war sooner.
Second, following the ERAM project, can be on the line with the U.S. defense industry to develop technology cooperation.For example, companies in Denmark and the Netherlands have participated in the adaptability testing of missiles, and may later get more joint research and development orders, which is also beneficial for their own military engineers.
Finally, European countries wanted to tell Russia by this "the West is a heart", but did not dare to stimulate Moscow too much, so chose ERAM such a "not upgraded too harsh" weapon, which is a shortcut.
Russia is not vegetarian there, the United States moves, Russia will react immediately. In the public opinion, Russian President press secretary Peskov has said several times.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova also made a statement, saying that if the United States continues to upgrade its aid to Ukraine, Russia "will use all necessary means" to ensure its own security.
Militarily, Russia's actions are more realistic. On the one hand, they have stepped up air strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities. In those days in late September, Russia launched several large-scale missile attacks, which directly caused widespread power outages in places such as Kiev.
On the other hand, the Russian military has deployed more hypersonic missiles and S-400 air defense systems in Crimea and Donbass to protect against the potential threats posed by ERAM.
It should be noted that Russia has also recently changed its nuclear deterrent policy, stating clearly that “non-nuclear countries should attack Russia with Western weapons” is also within the scope of a nuclear counterattack – it is clearly seen that this is a warning to the United States.
Let's talk about Trump's attitude, his change this time is actually quite thought-provoking. At first, it was "resolutely not letting go", but later it was changed to "you can think about it", and finally it was decided to replace Tomahawk with ERAM. Behind this is not only the situation on the front line has changed, but domestic politics in the United States has also stirred up trouble.
Let's look at the situation on the front line first. The recent Ukrainian counteroffensives in places such as Kursk and Zaporizhzhia have not made progress, but have stopped. Relying on fortifications and long-range firepower, the Russian army slowly recovered some of the lost ground.
Zelensky’s administration rushed to lobby the United States and even took “Trump’s personal security” as a code – saying Iran had planned to assassinate Trump before, wanted to link the Russian-Ukrainian conflict with the US-Iran contradiction, forcing the United States to escalate aid.
Although this move didn't let the United States let go of Tomahawk, it did push ERAM to the domestic side. Trump is still staring at the 2026 presidential election, and the pressure is not small. Among his supporters, there are both the establishment who want to "help Ukraine more" and conservatives who think "don't waste taxpayer money".
Choosing ERAM, a weapon that is "cheap and capable of posturing", just so that neither side will be offended. It will not only let voters see that "Trump is seriously dealing with the Russia-Ukraine crisis", but it will not cause controversy because it is too deep.
In addition, Trump wants to use this to put pressure on Europe to take on some more security responsibilities – which is entirely in line with what he has always said is “America’s priority.”
Source of information:
Putin responds to U.S. provision of Ukraine "Tax": will not change the situation on the battlefield further damage Russian-US relations
Sputnik News Agency: Media: The United States may supply Europe with long-range weapons for Kiev, but not Tomahawk missiles