Whenever America's politics winds up, Trump is always the first person to come out and talk, especially with China, he's been a bit uncomfortable and has no brake in his mouth.
But this time, the door of the White House was closed, and the government couldn't run because it had no money. Seeing that the days were getting more and more chaotic day by day, Trump suddenly didn't mention a word about China as if he had been pressed the "mute button".
The people who are familiar with his route know that the more critical the time, the more he likes to talk about China: hype the subject, shift the focus, three by three. but now he does not say, not because suddenly became Buddhist, but he clearly knows that this time blaming China will only make things more difficult to finish.
Now he is thinking right from the side of China to "pick up some benefits", so that in the domestic mix of words out. he does not want to say, but do not dare to say - he is afraid to say a wrong word, China's head talk no more.
Domestic problems pile up, Trump is eager to find a way out
This closure of the White House, it is said that the money has not been approved, the government can not function normally. the people first affected, the military, peasants, civil servants became the biggest victims.
Soldiers cannot eat, farmers cannot sell food, and civil servants cannot be paid. Any movement from any group is no small matter for Trump.
The army is the "royal sign" of the United States, but now even the timely pay has become a problem, the morality can not be affected? farmers, is the basic plate that Trump has always relied on. but the Chinese-US trade has been battling for so many years, soybeans, corn and these agricultural products exports have not returned to the right track, the money earned has become less, and the land has been lazy.
The people's painful days, Trump sees in his eyes, but he can't solve these problems by domestic policy, because Congress does not cooperate, the finances are stuck, he wants to do it and can't do it.
So he can only turn his eyes to diplomacy, especially China, and he hopes to reach a decent trade deal as soon as possible so that the people of his country can see a little hope.
In other words, he doesn’t want to win now, he wants to keep the basic disc. As long as China is willing to promise a condition, so that he can say on the table, “I’ve talked about it,” that’s what he needs most at the moment.
From shouting to shutting up, this time Trump changed his style of play
In the past, whether on or off the stage, Trump always couldn't do without the words "competition" and "threat" when talking about China. Even if he is looking for trouble, he has to type a few words on social platforms.
But this time, he suddenly stopped speaking. It's not that he has changed his temper, but that he is waiting for a "window"-he hopes to leave some room for the upcoming Sino-US contact by not provoking trouble.
Behind this is actually a strategy of the U.S. government: if it is uncertain at home, it is hoped to find a breakthrough internationally.
Especially for the economic and trade issues between China and the United States, if even a small step can be advanced at a multilateral meeting in October, Trump will be able to return to the stage and continue to tell his story as a "master negotiator."
But the problem is that the Chinese side is not in a hurry to cooperate.China’s attitude has always been clear: cooperation is possible, but on the basis of equality and mutual respect.
It's not that when the United States is in trouble, China has to do as you say, and the world is not a place where you have to turn around with a shout. Therefore, China has always maintained a stance of "you can talk, but don't try to force me to change my position."
This contrast makes Trump's "silence" particularly abrupt. He hopes to exchange silence for China's "nod", but China is more accustomed to dealing with the "eagerness" of the United States with patience.
The United States has a few cards in its hands, but they are no longer effective to play
Trump hasn’t thought of pressuring otherwise.In the past, he might have written articles about Taiwan, Japan, Korea or the South China Sea, trying to force China to make concessions.
The Taiwan issue has always been the most sensitive topic between China and the United States. There are indeed some people in the United States who want to do something about it, but if they really want to do it, the Pentagon will be the first to refuse to agree. The U.S. military now has a lot of problems of its own, overseas deployment is tight, ships cannot be built, and people are not enough. If it really wants to make a big scene in the Taiwan Strait, the United States itself may not be able to handle it.
On the Japanese side, the United States wants to pull them together to pressure China.In Japanese politics, there has indeed been a new face of tough attitude toward China, and the United States also wants to use this opportunity to deepen cooperation.
But Japan's calculator is also sophisticated, how much risk it really takes for the United States, it also has to measure a bit. As for South Korea, foreign policy is more pragmatic, both to ensure security and to earn money, it is unlikely to completely stand in between China and the United States.
Besides, in the South China Sea, the United States wants to use the line of the Philippines to exert its strength. The Philippine government is close to the United States, and it dares to say it. But the problem is that the domestic politics of the Philippines is unstable, and its policies are turning around quickly, so it may change its mind when there is trouble. It is too difficult for the United States to rely on this card to control the situation for a long time.
The summary is: several "geopolitical cards" that Trump wants to play look lively, but in fact they lack confidence. They can indeed create some public opinion, but they are far from supporting a really weighty diplomatic victory.
From Trump's silence, to the continuous shutdown of the government, and then to the unmoved Chinese side, the rhythm of this game has become clearer and clearer. The United States is "burning eyebrows" here, while the Chinese side is "neither impatient nor impatient". One is waiting for the agreement to save his life, and the other is waiting for the other party to let go first.
Trump’s “silence” was actually a bet he bet that China would proactively negotiate or even make concessions because of the U.S. situation.
But the reality is that China is neither panicked nor frightened, and knows the situation more than anyone else.
Looking at the overall situation, Sino-US relations do need communication, but the basis of communication must be equal. Trump's attempt to use "cruel tactics" in exchange for sympathy may have overestimated China's diplomatic determination and underestimated China's ability to judge the situation.
There is not much time left for Trump
Behind this "silence" is actually a big test of Trump's political career. He must produce results as soon as possible, otherwise he will not even have the confidence to hold the mid-term election. China, on the other hand, is advancing negotiations at its own pace, neither rejecting nor compromising. Everyone knows how to end this gamble, but the one who really has the initiative is probably not the one who plays the first card.
So, can Trump wait for the "reply" he wants? It's not up to him to decide alone. Now it seems that it is Beijing that can really afford to wait. Because this game can't be solved by lip service, but depends on who has patience and who can show sincerity.
The current situation, in fact, has illustrated a reality: no one can scream to force the other party to the negotiating table, and no country will initiate concessions in order to help you "down". Trump is not talking now, not because he has looked out, but because he knows, the more he says, the more mistake. but only by silence, can not change.
The answer he asked for was delayed. China, on the other hand, is still moving forward at its own pace. In this "silent battle", there is actually a clue as to who will lose and who will win.