In the global tariff war launched by Trump, Vietnam is reluctant to steal China. Why do you do this?On the one hand, because Vietnam has been looking forward to completing industrial upgrading in the development of domestic manufacturing, on the other hand, the Vietnamese also have a concern, especially behind this, which makes the Vietnamese sleep uncomfortable.
Will Vietnam backstabbing us, or to be precise, catering to Trump's needs, enable them to achieve their goals? It's actually not possible. What is the specific situation? Today, let's take a look at the practical difficulties Vietnam will face in its next development.
Trump's Sword Means Vietnam, Means China
The tariff war launched by Trump, although the undifferentiated attack on all countries, but his real purpose is to counter China, in the one-on-one confrontation with our country, it is a real game. and the tariff issue of other countries, Trump is soft and hard, vigorously pushing other countries in the field of economic and trade to clear the boundaries with our country, or even to disconnect.
Especially in Vietnam, where manufacturing has become an important part of the global industrial chain over the past few years, Trump wants to completely uniform the Vietnamese, so on tariffs, Trump has always insisted that Vietnamese factories reduce the use of materials or parts from China.
For example, Vietnam's local automobile brands, many key materials and parts previously came from Shanghai, China. If Vietnamese people surrender to Trump's obscene power, then these automobile parts will not be purchased from China in the future.
Trump's thought is that on the one hand it can hit our manufacturing industry, on the other hand it can separate Vietnam from our industrial system, and eventually marry the United States-led industrial system.So the more Trump is putting pressure on the Vietnamese, the real purpose is to hit our country, isolating our industrial system.
In this way, we can understand why Vietnam may backstab our country. Because from Vietnam's perspective, they are in a less critical OEM link in the global industrial system, and the upstream link holds key and complex technologies. As long as these countries, whether it is China or the United States, continue to produce OEM products in Vietnam factories, Vietnam people can make profits from it.
Moreover, Vietnam’s export trade over the past few years has been mainly directed to the U.S. market, with an annual economic value of more than hundreds of billions of dollars.
So the situation is quite clear, even if the United States has not made any more excessive demands, Vietnam in order to meet Trump in exchange for a larger American market, there is also the possibility of actively investing.In the end, the linkage position of the global industrial chain where Vietnam is, so that they do not care whether the upstream leader of the industrial chain is China or the United States.
But the problem now is that the Vietnam have completely misjudged the situation, or Trump as a person. Even if Vietnam choose to kneel and surrender, Trump may not necessarily give benefits to Vietnam.
Trump wants more than just industrial dominance
From the perspective of the development of globalization, once a country has completed industrial upgrading, enterprises in order to control the cost of commodities as much as possible, will definitely build factories around the world. such as Germany, Japan, these early completed industrialization countries, their enterprises have invested in the world over the years. It is under this pattern that the global industrial chain system will become increasingly complex and longer.
The United States has also completed de-industrialization in this system. Simply put, companies like Apple master the design of products and the manufacturing of key components by themselves, while the production and manufacturing of overall products are transferred to other countries.
This method can make enterprises earn more, but those workers who make a living in manufacturing or other workers will have their income decline or even lose their jobs due to the transfer of industries. This is why some people in the United States strongly oppose globalization. They not only want those enterprises to return to the United States, but also hope that a large number of industries can return to the United States.
So this part of the talent will support Trump’s campaign and eventually become president.They want Trump to launch a global trade war and move most of the industry chain step by step to the U.S. home.
Under this thinking, national industries like Vietnam are exactly what the United States hates. Therefore, once Vietnam surrenders to Trump, the United States will definitely intensify its efforts and put forward further demands. As long as it is a profitable and profitable industrial system, it will be transferred from Vietnam through various means. It is basically impossible to rely on backstabbing China to gain the appreciation of the United States.
In the final analysis, Trump's way of thinking is different from that of other American presidents. In order to restrict China, other American presidents will definitely woo other countries in the surrounding areas and give these countries some benefits, so that they will cooperate with the United States more hard.
The most typical example is India, when Biden was still president, India was almost America's predecessor and rapid vanguard, constantly provoking our country on various issues. But now, the relationship between India and the United States has become sharply cold, and Trump doesn't care what Modi would think. After all, Trump is more concerned about the domestic situation, as long as his thinking remains unchanged, no matter how the Vietnamese people kneel, will not let this president look differently.
In addition to the reasons of the United States, Vietnam's own problems also mean that even if they cater to Trump, they will not gain any benefits in the future.
Vietnam is creating new fantasies.
As mentioned earlier, in the current globalized industrial system, Vietnam is only in the OEM link. Compared with the upstream countries, this link earns the least profit, and the technical level is not high. In the early stage of development, Vietnamese people will still be willing to hold their position, but as long as they start a little development, they will be unwilling to hold their position and think about how to build industrial upgrading.
The Vietnamese themselves have made this very clear. They believe that their manufacturing industry is standing at a historic intersection. In the future, they should not only do processing and assembly business, but also develop upgraded industries.
You can say that this is an illusion of Vietnam, especially an unrealistic illusion generated after seeing China's successful development experience. Because my country used to be a world factory and was mainly responsible for OEM and assembly business.
However, China has gradually completed industrial upgrading and is moving from low-end industries to high-end industries step by step. For example, automobile manufacturing, in the past, we didn't have our own brand, and most of the domestically produced cars were joint venture cars, but now domestic cars are rapidly moving towards the world market.
Vietnamese people also want to do this, but the problem is that in the field of manufacturing they have no way to compare with our country.The manufacturing system of our country is the only one in the world the most comprehensive country, this is because our development began early, and in addition to the land, any industrial system can be involved.
However, Vietnam does not have this advantage because in the early days, Vietnam was able to harvest a large amount of assembly business, entirely because of the transfer of our industrial manufacturing.
In this situation, Vietnam’s manufacturing system is only targeted and does not have a full-scale development like our country, because they have neither this ability nor this level of technology.
Imagine that even this most basic problem cannot be solved, how could Vietnam push for the systematic upgrading of industry? and further on, the global trade war that the United States is now launching is profoundly changing the global industrial system pattern, the Vietnamese even if they want to seize the opportunity of upgrading, will not get the favor of the Americans, and even be oppressed.
Without a better external environment, it is basically impossible for Vietnamese people to dominate the industrial system alone. Therefore, Vietnam's next manufacturing upgrade will not achieve its goal naturally. On the contrary, the original OEM and assembly businesses will be reduced accordingly.
Besides, Vietnamese people are facing another hidden worry, that is, the demographic dividend is disappearing rapidly.
Vietnam's birth rate drops
A country is able to develop the manufacturing industry vigorously, with sufficient labor. Vietnam's workforce is sufficient, and the age structure is lower, so for a very long time in the past, the world has been talking about Vietnam's population dividends. But by now, the Vietnamese government has rushed to find that the population dividends are disappearing accelerated, as Vietnam's population birth rate has fallen.
Although Vietnam's population exceeds 100 million, Vietnam's total fertility rate has reached a record low. In 2022, Vietnam's total fertility rate will be 2.01. In 2023, this level will be 1.96. In 2024, it will drop to 1.91. If the stability of the national population is to be maintained, Vietnam's total fertility rate must remain above 2.1.
It was because the overall fertility rate continued to decline that Vietnam abolished the fertility restriction policy in June this year, and just last year, Vietnam was still celebrating the population's millennium and believed that Vietnam was still in the golden period of population development. But after only a year, the Vietnamese couldn't laugh out. It is clear that the Vietnamese government had to face the next double test of population aging and birth rate decline.
According to the current trend, in less than 30 years, after 2054, Vietnam's population will see negative growth, which means that the negative growth caused by the decline of Vietnam's population is even earlier than our country.
Under the impact of demographic problems, Vietnam’s society as a whole is gradually increasing, and the revenue generated by the corresponding society will decrease.If this trend continues to develop, Vietnam will not be able to push the further upgrading of the industrial system.
Therefore, the Vietnamese are very miserable, the country is not rich, the labor force begins to decline, and the entire international situation is also increasingly complicated, not conducive to the comprehensive development of Vietnamese manufacturing and economy. If the Vietnamese are backbone to our country, the situation they face will be more complicated, not to say to complete industrial upgrading, is to take over the original business is no longer possible.
conclusion
In the final analysis, Vietnam's national size is not comparable to that of our country at all. However, if Vietnamese people have unrealistic illusions, they will mistakenly believe that taking our path can achieve our development achievements.
It is clear that this situation will not occur, the next Vietnam will be domestic diplomatic hardship, the internal manufacturing system is difficult to upgrade, and if the population is falling, it will be more likely to delay economic growth.
Judging from the current situation, Vietnam is still maintaining its previous illusions, and its bursting national confidence in the country has made some Vietnam increasingly unable to see reality. It seems that only by allowing them to stumble again in the near future can we truly understand what the actual situation is.
References:
“The golden age of population and the decline in birth rates, Vietnam officially lifts the two-child limit” Press Release June 4, 2025
Vietnam Impressions: Manufacturing – From Ordinary Employment to Fair Competition, Vietnam, 9 March 2025
What exactly is the status of the U.S.-Vietnam trade agreement? – Yakuza Evening News July 3, 2025
"The United States puts forward tough demands on Vietnam during trade negotiations and talks about China" Observer Network June 4, 2025