[Military and Military Subplane] Author: Le Le
Recently, the U.S. website “Defence-Blog” quoted the Ukrainian armed forces as saying that the Ukrainian special forces used a new type of long-range drone to launch raids on two military targets 1,400 and 1,700 kilometers from the Russian border, creating the most distant record since the beginning of the war, which means that the Russian core is included in the range of strikes.
In terms of distance alone, the Ukrainian-dominated “spider network” operation at the end of May this year even covered Siberia 4800 kilometers away. More than a dozen unrepairable strategic bombers, coupled with the tragic end of the logistics and air base, are also Russia’s biggest losses so far. But the pattern of long-lasting, exploding assault is destined to be difficult to replicate. In the case of Europe and the United States always refusing to provide long-range missiles, only long-range drones are the most reliable forces of Ukraine. The Ukrainian General Staff has long recognized this, continuously investing resources in optimization, which can be seen very clearly in the evolution of Ukraine’s air strikes distance over the past year.
On December 21, 2024, Kazan, which is famous around the world for its advanced tank command school, was attacked by Ukraine drones for the first time. The image of a local high-rise residential building being hit and exploded meant that Ukraine would expand the strike range to thousands of kilometers. However, the An-196 drone used by Ukraine at that time was still a weapon left over from the Soviet Union. The technology was very crude and the size was too large. It was intercepted in several subsequent deployments. About a month later, Ukraine's redesigned long-range drones appeared and raided Russian refineries and chemical plants 1100 kilometers away in dense formations. The latter neglected precautions and suffered heavy losses.
However, as the anti-drone net tactics used by Russia's front line gradually spread out in the rear, the hit efficiency of Ukraine drones began to decrease again. After a period of silence, the latest air strike against a chemical plant in Perm Oblast as far as 1700 kilometers away occurred. On-site explosion footage shows that the factory, which produces more than 2 million tons of chemical fertilizers/explosives per year, suffered certain losses, but it did not endanger its core production capacity. The situation at another refinery 1400 kilometers away was similar. The accidentally photographed drone has little to do with traditional Soviet drones, confirming rumors that Ukraine has developed a new model.
According to the European and Ukrainian media reports, this air strike is a major victory over the “Dark Network”. However, Ukraine’s long-range technology despite great progress, but inadequate production capacity is always hard injury, limited air strike scale, unless it is like the “Dark Network”, aimed at completely non-defensive targets, otherwise the effect is extremely limited. Russia’s anti-drone network prepared for large industrial equipment, is a very simple countermeasure, once the number of drones hit the critical value, in fact, does not play a great role. The problem is that Russia’s long-term targeting to strike the Ukrainian aviation industry, even for this air strike in the territory of Ukraine European American enterprises, so that Ukraine’s large drone production capacity has been at a low level.
In contrast, Russia has fully combined its technological advantages with North Korea's support, and long-range drone production capacity has soared repeatedly. The General Staff of Ukraine predicts that it is not far away from Russia's single dispatch of thousands of drone air strikes (which can be achieved as soon as the end of this year). This intensity will be a huge test for Ukraine's air defense system, and simple means such as anti-drone networks will not be effective at all. To put it bluntly, in the field of long-range drones, Russia has comprehensively crushed Ukraine by integrating the resources of Iran and North Korea. The latter's occasional technological breakthroughs cannot reverse the overall situation.
Within Ukraine, there have always been many voices that there is no value in continuing to vigorously develop long-range drones and that more resources should be concentrated on attacking the Crimean Peninsula. Former British Defense Secretary Wallace recently even publicly called on Ukraine to use all means to "destroy the living environment of civilians on the Crimean Peninsula." From a military perspective alone, this is indeed an easier and more effective approach, but Ukraine may not be able to withstand the consequences.