Just after winning the position of president of the Liberal Democratic Party, Takashi Saami had not had time to celebrate when the Yasukuni Shrine, the "must-answer historical question", was placed in front of her. She has repeatedly expressed her support for visiting the shrine, and her attitude is so tough that it is not surprising.
But this time, on the brink of becoming Japan's first female prime minister, she suddenly said to "judge accordingly".
This just started political game, the smell of gunpowder is not intense, but with the phrase. Behind the "change" of the high market, is the trial? is a compromise? or a larger settlement?
The Eagles are born, and the burden of history is heavy.
Takaichi sanae's political label has never been blurred. If anyone is the most "hawkish to China" figure in Japanese politics, she is definitely on the list. Her growth path and political trajectory tell us that this is not a temporary position, but a deep-rooted belief.
Over the past few years, the city has visited Yogyakarta several times. In 2021, and in 2022, it has appeared publicly at sensitive times. In Japan, this behavior may reap some applause from conservative voters, but in the eyes of countries such as China and Korea, this is the re-salting of the wounds of history.
Not to mention that she once publicly questioned the historical authenticity of the Nanjing Massacre and the comfort women issue. These remarks, even in Japanese politics, are on the radical side.
In terms of safety policy, her proposition is even more "full throttle". She not only supports raising the defense budget to more than 2% of GDP, but also promotes the revision of the pacifist constitution and advocates the so-called "free and open Indo-Pacific strategy."
In her eyes, China is a "threat" and must be "de-risked" to reduce dependence. In her articles at the Hudson Institute in the United States, she repeatedly emphasized this point, which almost became her diplomatic mantra.
In the issue of China Taiwan, her speech about Taiwan is even more stepping line. she said in the U.S. think tank when she sent "can not allow unilateral change of the status quo", this phrase is a bit neutral, in fact is attached to the mainstream narrative of the West against China, challenge the principle of "one China", clearly violates the political consensus between China and Japan.
It is not difficult to understand that China is not happy about her coming to power. Because this is not a replacement, but a replacement for someone who has no favorable impression of China from the root. According to a survey conducted by Japan's JNN, her supporters are mainly concentrated among conservatives and right-wing groups, which also shows from a side that her position is not isolated, but has a certain social foundation.
Therefore, even if she starts to be "discretionary" in her mouth, this political background is destined not to fade easily. For Sino-Japanese relations, her election is not a turning point, but may be the starting point of more friction.
Changing your mind does not mean changing your mind. China has drawn a "red line"
As soon as Takashi was elected, the media immediately asked her: Will she visit the Yasukuni Shrine again? Her answer suddenly became vague: "I will judge according to my duty and diplomatic influence." These remarks are quite different from her previous tough rhetoric of "visiting the shrine must be".
It is not that she becomes gentle, but that she knows that if she becomes prime minister, it is the diplomatic reality to face, not the speech within the party. Her “appropriate judgment” is clear, it is to give herself a spin-off space. She can not go, she can also go in a different way; can not go now, then go again. In short, not to say death, is a survival instinct of politicians.
But the Chinese side does not intend to "listen to its good faith."The Chinese Foreign Ministry reacted exceptionally calmly, but the sentence was in place, sending out four "advices" directly:
Compliance with the four political documents of the day;
Commitment to history and Taiwan;
3. Pursuing a positive and rational policy towards China;
Implementation of strategic mutual relations.
These four sentences are said mildly, but the weight is not light. There are no congratulations, only bottom lines. In particular, the word "implement" is used very heavily, which means that China will not be fooled by verbal promises, but depends on how she really does it.
From the diplomatic language, this is a typical "you try, I draw the line." high market chooses vague statements, is in the reaction of all parties to the test water; the Chinese response is to clearly tell her: this water, you must not go too deep.
So, this is not an ordinary adjustment of speech, but a diplomatic game that has just begun. Gao Xiaoping tries to find a balance between conservatives and the international community, but China has made it clear to her that the Yogyakarta Shrine is not a "vague zone" and there is no "grey space" on the historical issue.
The Unavoidable Reality: The Framework of Unavoidable Confrontation
The “change” of the high market shows a little flexibility, but don’t be happy too early.The new “woman prime minister” has too much burden on the body, and it’s not easy to turn around.
The most direct problem is: her political support is based on the right-wing, and if it turns too fast, I am afraid that even within the party will be unstable.
Moreover, Japan's policy towards China is not her own account.The framework of the US-Japanese alliance has long drawn Japan's diplomatic route into the "confrontation track".
Especially in the context of Trump-led U.S. support, High City probably won't dare to engage in "equal distance diplomacy" between China and the United States. she wants to stabilize within the party, please the United States, but also to satisfy domestic conservatives, to Beijing "show good" this matter, the priority is obviously not high.
But then again, Japan is not monolithic. Economically, China remains one of Japan's largest trading partners. According to data from the Economist Intelligence Unit, Japan's exports and investment in China are difficult to decouple.
There are still too many overlapping interests between China and Japan on the manufacturing chain, energy cooperation, and environmental protection issues. This decided that no matter how "tough" Takashi said, he could not really cut Sino-Japanese relations completely.
From a pragmatic point of view, the Japanese government still has to retain communication channels in certain areas. Themes such as economic and trade cooperation, climate change, regional economic order, etc., are real issues that cannot be bypassed by China.
Even more complicated is the fact that high-market early-size does not have the diplomatic experience and political handshake of Abe. She may be more likely to "disagree" in public, or misjudge the situation on certain issues, leading to a great increase in diplomatic risk.
From the Japanese political tradition, the prime minister changes frequently and policy coherence is poor. How long she can be prime minister, whether she can stabilize the situation, is unknown.
Therefore, instead of pinning hopes on her "transsexuality", it is better to face up to reality. Between China and Japan, I'm afraid the main theme of the future will still be "competition as the mainstay, cooperation as the supplement". Whether it is stable or not depends on whether Japan has the ability and willingness to walk within the "red line" drawn by China.
conclusion
With an intense hawkish background, Gao Xiaoping reached the summit of power, and the "change of mouth" on the Yakuza question was only a part of her political strategy, not a signal of a change of stance. Her political colour, domestic pressure, and external alliances decided that she could not pretend to move forward.
China's response was precise and powerful. It was neither emotional nor misjudged its opponents, but calmly drew a bottom line. From historical cognition to the Taiwan issue, from policy path to strategic positioning, everything is clear and there is no room for ambiguity.
Standing at a strategic crossroads, will Japan continue to be led by ideology and external forces, or will it return to rationality and reality and seek stable coexistence? This is not only takaichi sanae's personal choice, but also the future choice of Japan.
Without unloading the burden of history, Japan's diplomacy will not go far. The thermometer of Sino-Japanese relations does not depend on who shouts loudly, but on who does it steadily. Whether the future will be turbulent or stable depends on whether the market can implement "discretionary judgment".
Source: Gao Shi Zao Miao was elected, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded 2025-10-04 18:26·Global Times