October 4 in the Presidential Palace of Kiev.

Zelensky signed three sanctions decrees against Russia. This sanctions list containing 33 individuals and 27 entities contains a detail that surprised everyone-a Chinese company was named for allegedly supplying parts to Russian drone factories.

Just two days ago, Putin had just spoken at the Valdai Forum in Sochi: "We advocate that regional countries sign agreements to solve problems." As a result, Ukraine turned around and did this.

Netizens joked that "Zelensky is playing a big game of chess", but if you look carefully, this game is full of helplessness.

Cut off the chain? see what it means.

In Ukraine's sanctions list this time, the selection of drone parts and oil industry is particularly precise. After all, Russia's "Lancet" drone does cause a headache for the Ukrainian army on the battlefield. Cutting off the supply chain sounds reasonable, right?

The question is-is it really cut?

Give an example. The China company on the sanctions list is accused of supplying drone parts. But where's the evidence? In the documents published by Ukraine, there is only a vague sentence of "suspected".

This kind of operation is like you buy a mobile phone case, and the result is said to fund the entire mobile phone industry chain. It logically makes sense, but actually implements it? It's basically a political show.

Russia¡¯s oil export revenue in the first half of this year exceeded $120 billion, and how many unilateral sanctions could cut down on several entities in Ukraine?

To be honest, it¡¯s more like a ¡°attitude job¡± to the West ¨C you see, we¡¯re trying to cut off Russia¡¯s economic vitality.

But the real supply chain is a globalized network, not a paper ban.

Is it in the western rhythm or is it forced to dance?

Time is delicate.

On October 2, Putin expressed support for Trump's proposal on the Gaza conflict in Sochi, implying a willingness to negotiate. 48 hours later, Ukraine imposed additional sanctions. You call this a coincidence? I don't believe it anyway.

In order to vote, the Trump administration needs to show voters the "hard gestures" of Ukraine.Out of Europe, the two countries have begun to hurt their wallets for continued aid to Ukraine.

In this context, Zelensky must do something-not only to prove that "we are still fighting", but not to really anger Russia to the point of breaking its face.

So if you look at this list of sanctions, the strike is wide but limited, and the symbolic meaning is greater than the actual effect.

The word ¡°chess¡± is actually the opposite., it is not so much that Zelensky is playing chess as that he is being pushed on a chessboard.

If the West gives aid, it has to match the pace of pressure; When the West cuts its budget, it has to find its own way to find its own sense of existence. Ukraine's current situation can be described in one word as "a dilemma".

Ukraine's GDP is expected to shrink by more than 30% this year.

Power facilities were bombed, factories were shut down, young people fled... Cafes on the streets of Kiev are still open, but everyone knows that the economy can no longer hold on. Under such circumstances, external sanctions against Russia are actually a kind of "unity mobilization" internally.

After all, we have to give the people an explanation, right?

¡°We are fighting the economic lifeline of the enemy!¡± this narrative sounds more exciting than ¡°We lack money and weapons, we lack assistance.¡±Especially pulling Chinese enterprises in, it can also create the illusion of ¡°Russia is not isolated¡± in the international public opinion and prove the necessity of its own sanctions.

Just how long this barrier eye can last, no one has a mind.

3. Russia's countermeasures: Closing ports is no joke

Speaking of counteraction, the action on the Russian side is even harsher. Directly close 20 border crossings¡£

What are these 20 ports carrying? humanitarian channels, food trade, industrial raw material transportation, etc., carrying more than 3 million tons of cargo per year.

Once closed, the economic livelihoods of the eastern region of Ukraine are directly affected, what about the winter heating of coal?

On the surface, this is a reciprocal counterattack against Ukraine sanctions. But the deep logic is more complex.

Cut off potential weapons smuggling channels. The border line is long and no one knows how much ¡°help materials¡± are coming in through the grey channel.

The second is to put pressure on the pro-Russian region in eastern Ukraine. These places had been shaken, and now the livelihoods are broken, can the people's opinion not turn to Russia?

You see, the drama of sanctions and counter-sanctions is not about solving problems at all, but about comparing who can tolerate it more.

Ukraine freezes assets, Russia closes channels; Ukraine sanctions companies, Russia cuts energy...

As a result of spiral escalation, ordinary people will always suffer.

4. A pawn in the game between the United States and Russia, or a player with autonomy?

Back to the core question: What role does Ukraine play in this game?

Ideally, it should be a regional power with strategic autonomy, but the reality is that there is a shadow of the West behind every sanction decision, and every step of military action requires the U.S. swing.

For the Chinese company on the sanctions list, it is clear that it is in line with the U.S. strategy of pressure on China, but the question is ¨C what can Ukraine itself get from it?

Ironically, China is a potential important partner in Ukraine¡¯s reconstruction, and now, who dares to invest?

Putin said in Sochi that he "advocated regional countries signing agreements", which actually implied a profound meaning-he knew that the United States could not give up its influence on Ukraine, so he kicked the ball to European countries. Neighboring countries such as France, Germany and Poland have geographical interests and do not want unlimited support. If they dominate the peace talks, the right to speak of the United States will naturally be diluted.

Zelensky certainly understood this truth. Therefore, his current strategy is to "be tough on both hands"-while cooperating with the West to impose sanctions on Russia, while also leaving a way out for possible peace talks. Look at this sanctions list. It targets small and medium-sized enterprises that are easy to replace, but the core energy giants have not moved. This is sending a signal: I can be tough, but I don't intend to completely tear myself apart.

Sanctions have never been the fundamental solution to conflicts

How many successful cases of sanctions are there in history?

South Africa's apartheid and Iran's nuclear issue, it seems that sanctions have played a role, but in fact they are all combined with multiple factors such as military deterrence, diplomatic mediation and internal changes.

To surrender the opponent simply by economic sanctions is basically like dreaming.

Since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been fought until now, both sides know that there is no point in continuing to consume. The Russian economy is indeed affected, but it is far from collapsing; Ukraine is supporting with Western aid, but the aid will always run out one day.

The real way out is to go back to the negotiating table.

But the question now is ¨C who goes down first? what to say? how to resolve the core contradictions of territory, security, NATO¡¯s east expansion? these problems are not resolved, and sanctions and counter-sanctions will continue to cycle.

There are no eternal friends in international politics, only eternal interests. Ukraine now seems to have the full support of the West, but when this conflict is over, who will remember your sacrifice?

At the time of the reconstruction, the repayment of debts, territorial disputes... all of them are enough to drink a cup.

In this world, real chess is never on the table.

Source of information:

China Fund News, "Sudden! Russia is sanctioned", 2025.10.5