With 185 votes in the election to the chairman of the self-government party, Japan will be the first female prime minister, and she is also asking for dialogue with China from the beginning, China's position is clear.
On October 4, the results of the Japanese self-government party chairman election were announced, and high-ranking早苗 with 185 votes defeated Xiao Jingong, successfully elected a new self-government party chairman. According to the practice, she will probably become Japan's first female prime minister. This news, as soon as it came, not only sparked a wave in Japan, but also brought the international community's eyes back to Tokyo.
Data show that Takashi Saami, 64 years old, has a rich political resume and is a typical representative of Japan's conservative right wing. Born in Nara, she entered politics as a non-partisan in her early years. Later, she joined the Liberal Democratic Party and served as Minister of General Affairs, Minister of Economic Security, and Chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party's Political Affairs Bureau. Her political mentor is former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who is called the "successor to Abe's line" by Japanese media. Anyone familiar with Japanese politics knows that the "Abe line" represents not moderate conservatism, but tough nationalism and radical security policies. Now, the victory of Gaoshi Zaomiao means that this route may be reactivated under the new situation.
Judging from her past words and deeds, Takaichi is not a compromise politician. She visited the Yasukuni Shrine many times, denied the history of the Nanjing Massacre, and publicly publicized the so-called "China threat theory", all of which caused a strong rebound in Sino-Japanese relations. In her campaign speeches, she repeatedly emphasized "protecting Japanese tradition" and "strengthening defense capability", declaring that she would "give her life to protect Japan's ancient culture". Such a statement caters to the expectations of the domestic right wing, but makes neighboring countries feel uneasy.
However, it is worth noting that just before the election, Takaichi Sanae suddenly published a signed article, and the tone seemed to be somewhat different. In this article published in the Hudson Institute, an American think tank, she expressed the hope of having a "frank dialogue" with China to "stabilize regional security" when talking about the Taiwan issue. She also quoted the contents of the 1972 Japan-China Joint Statement, emphasizing that Japan recognizes the People's Republic of China as the sole legitimate government of China.
Some believe that it is her "experimental goodwill" released to the outside world, and is also paving the way for her future diplomatic space; others believe that it is just a "diplomatic decree" and does not represent a change in her basic position. After all, she still emphasizes in the same article "never allow for force to change the status quo of Taiwan", and reiterates the alliance with the United States is the cornerstone of Japan's diplomacy.
But from a realistic point of view, she wants to improve her attitude toward China, and I am afraid it is not easy. The historical burden and real differences between China and Japan are too heavy. Yogyakarta, Taiwan, fishing island, economic competition, military deployment, these are not a "dialogue" that can be solved.
China Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun responded to Japanese politicians 'Taiwan-related remarks at a press conference, emphasizing that "Taiwan is an inalienable part of China's territory" and pointed out that "Japan bears historical responsibility towards the China people on the Taiwan issue, and should be particularly cautious in its words and actions." These words are both a warning and a reminder. For China, no matter who the new Japanese leader is, as long as he crosses the line on the Taiwan issue, China's attitude will be firm and clear. Therefore, when Takashi Saami mentioned "hoping to have dialogue with China," China's reaction was actually given in advance-dialogue is okay, but the prerequisite is that the one China principle must be respected. This is the bottom line and cannot be blurred.
As for Japan's future, judging from the current signals, Takaichi Sanae's policy propositions are generally right-leaning. She proposed to increase the defense budget, strengthen economic security, strengthen the Japan-US alliance, and deepen the cooperation between Japan, the United States, South Korea and Japan, the United States and the Philippines. This means that Japan's future security strategy will be more closely attached to the United States' Indo-Pacific layout.
However, from an international perspective, Japan is in a situation of multiple pressures. The United States hopes that Tokyo will play a more active role in the Indo-Pacific strategy, and Europe is also wooing Japan geopolitically to jointly contain China; But at the same time, Japan's trade and investment are inseparable from the Chinese market. Last year, the total trade volume between China and Japan exceeded 330 billion US dollars, and China is Japan's largest trading partner. No matter how different ideologies are, the real economic interests force Japan to maintain communication channels with China.
Therefore, even if Takashi Saami adheres to Abe's line, he must make fine adjustments on the issue of China. She needs to meet both the political expectations of the domestic right wing and the pragmatic needs of the economic community, and this balance is precisely the biggest challenge for her future administration. It is foreseeable that she may adopt a "two-sided strategy" in her statement to China: maintain a tough stance on politics and security to appease conservative voters; and send "dialogue signals" at the economic, trade and regional cooperation levels to avoid full-scale confrontation. This model of "hard while soft" may become the main theme of Japan's China policy in the future.
In short, the coming months will be a crucial period to test her political judgment. She must face factions within the party, economic challenges, public opinion pressures and complex international situations at the same time. If she continues to move along the extreme conservative line, Japan may fall further into diplomatic isolation; if she chooses to make pragmatic adjustments, China-Japan relations may enter a new window. It is certain that China’s position will not change. One China principle is unshakable, historical facts are unshakable, and national sovereignty is unattainable. This is the bottom line of any diplomatic statement.