Source: Shangguan News
Starting from the evening of tomorrow (October 6), Beijing time, the 2025 Nobel Prize will be announced one after another. The first to be released are still the three major scientific awards: the Physiology or Medicine Award will be announced at 17:30 on the 6th, the Physics Award will be announced at 17:45 on the 7th, and the winners of the Chemistry Award will be announced at 17:45 on the 8th.
Last year, the 2024 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine was awarded to two scientists who discovered microRNA (microRNA) and their role in post-transcription gene regulation; the Physics Prize was awarded to two pioneers who used artificial neural networks for machine learning; and the Chemical Prize was awarded to three scientists who contributed to protein design and protein structure prediction.
In the next few days, who will win the three major scientific awards? Will it be a "big hot" or a "big cold"? Will there be more female scientists? Will Chinese people win the Nobel Prize again? Will AI win the "people" again? We'll wait and see.
Awards generally "lag behind"
Some people brought the Nobel Prize home at the age of 25 with the father of the physicist; some have not yet entered the field of research that eventually made him the "life winner"; some achievements have caused a shock after publication, the following year has brought the Nobel Prize favour; some research hardship and more than half a century to wait for the Nobel Prize medal ...
As the highest honor award in the field of natural science recognized all over the world, the Nobel Prize for Science almost includes the most original major achievements and breakthroughs since the 20th century, and represents the main trend of modern scientific research.
On December 10, 2024, in Stockholm, Sweden, the 2024 Nobel Prize ceremony will be held.
Research shows that many breakthrough studies may not have attracted widespread attention when they were first published, or their importance may not be recognized immediately. Only over time, when these findings are verified, expanded by other researchers, and present value in practical applications, can their true importance gradually emerge. Statistics show that there is an average time gap of about 20 years between the time the Nobel Prize was awarded and the earliest research it recognized. This “retargeting effect” is common in the three fields of physics, chemistry, physiology or medicine.
In addition, the analysis found that technological breakthroughs can be converted to applications or basic research can be rewarded as quickly as possible. The shortest directions to receive Nobel Prize recognition in the three fields are nuclear physics and particle physics, organic chemistry, organs and system research respectively. In contrast, complex theoretical research (such as chaos theory related, quantum chemistry and anthropology) usually requires long validation and development, and is therefore the discipline with the longest average award interval.
2024 Nobel Prize winner in Physiology or Medicine Gary Rufkan
Reflecting the development trend of modern science
The awarding of the Nobel Prize in Science also reflects the diversity and cross-trends of modern scientific research — for example, the chemistry prize is called the Summary Prize, where physical chemistry and organic biochemistry hold the highest number of prize winners, and physicists engaged in quantum physics research are sometimes given chemistry prizes; while in physics, particle physics and condensation physics are the main prize-winning fields, but in recent years the number of prizes winning in astronomy and cosmology research is also rising, showing the broad range of physical research from microscopic to macroscopic.
This interdisciplinary trend not only reflects the comprehensive characteristics of modern scientific research, but also highlights the importance of cross-disciplinary cooperation. This cross-fusion often gives rise to major breakthroughs, but also increases the complexity of evaluating the impact of research and delays the time to receive the Nobel Prize to some extent.
Local time 9 October 2024, London, UK, 2024 Nobel Prize winners in chemistry Damis Hasabis and John Juppert appear office
Moreover, as science becomes more collaborative, individual "genius" discoveries become increasingly rare, replacing the results of teamwork, and multi-person awards have become the norm.
Predicting the Nobel Prize is fun.
And to the Nobel Prize season, predicting the new Connor prize winner is also a delightful "entertainment activity" - predicting the accuracy or not is secondary, which can make some of the usual less attention to scientific discoveries and mainly complete people go under the light, promote related cop, is also a fortune.
You know, the Nobel Prize is not a "lifetime achievement award", but focuses on a specific achievement. In this way, it is slightly easier to predict which research field will win the prize than to predict which scientist will win the prize. Shi Yu, a professor at Fudan University, has a good record in predicting the Nobel Prize in Physics. His method is that the winning fields rotate in four fields: particle physics, atomic, molecular and photophysics, condensed matter physics, astrophysics and cosmology, trace back the awards in previous years, speculate on this year's winning fields, and then predict the most likely candidates of that year.
Nowadays, there are more and more awards called the "Nobel Prize vane", but the "strongest" and "most comprehensive" one is the "Citation Laureate Award"-after all, papers are the "hard currency" of scientific research.
On the basis of the quantitative and qualitative analysis of the paper, in the four fields of physiology or medicine, chemistry, physics, and economics, each selected 3 results, awarded the "Chinese Quote Award", as a forecast for the Nobel Prize. From 2002 to the end of 2024, 83 winners have finally won the Nobel Prize, 13 of whom were awarded the Nobel Prize in the year, with an average interval of 4.86 years. It is worth mentioning that Zhang Tao, a researcher at the Institute of Chemical Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, soon won the "Chinese Quote Award" because of the pioneering contribution in the field of "single atomic catalysis", became the first award-winning Chinese scientist.
By the way, in recent years, people have also begun to use the AI model to predict the Nobel Prize.
Tomorrow evening, the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine will be announced first