The contents of this article are written with authoritative materials and personal opinions. The source of the literature has been marked at the end of the article, so please know.
The latest data released by the International Monetary Fund show that, India’s GDP has reached $4.187 trillionIt is ahead of Japan's $4.186 trillion and becomes the world's fourth largest economy.
So, Will India surpass China?If we analyze India’s strength in depth, we will find that this South Asian country has actually been ahead of China in at least four aspects.
The biggest advantage of India is that The youthful population structure of the country。
According to the latest statistics, India's current average age is less than 29 years old, while China's average age is close to 39 years old with the aging population.
This means India will have a continuously growing labor force in the coming decades., which can provide a steady stream of power for its economic development.
But People are a resource but also a burden.。
The key depends on whether the country has the ability to turn young chips into development dividends. For now, India is still groping and is still some way from exploding, but potential does exist.
In terms of economic growth, India’s economic growth has remained between 6% and 7% in recent years., exceeding China's growth level in the same period. Such sustained and rapid growth has increased India's proportion in the global economy.
Although India's total GDP in 2025 is about US$4.2 trillion, which is still far from China's US$19 trillion in the same period, this is already comparable to China's US$4.6 trillion in 2008.
This also means that looking at the growth curve, India is in a crucial period of economic start-up.。
However, India also needs further improvements in supply chain, manufacturing and investment efficiency in order to really narrow the gap with China.
In India today, The service industry is the protagonist.In particular, IT outsourcing and financial services are growing fast, profitable, and look modern. Bangalore is known as Asia’s Silicon Valley, the world’s first outsourcing business.
In the field of Internet economy, India's unified payment interface is growing rapidly, the number of users has exceeded 1 billion. Although the overall ecosystem is still not as complete as China's Alipay and Weixin Pay, the growth rate is also very impressive.
At present, India still lags behind China in basic research, core technologies and capital investment. However, India has indeed established global competitiveness in IT services and software exports.
India’s international position has also been enhanced.
In recent years, the limelight has been particularly fierce. GDP has soared to the fifth place in the world, population has become the first in the world, and diplomatic actions have been frequent, and even the United States and Europe have frequently shown good intentions.
India's voice is growing, but because some people point out that India does emerge quickly, but its infrastructure is a little behind.
But I have to admit, India is indeed in a relatively advantageous position right now。
Is India's future all good? No, there are still many problems facing India.
Insufficient infrastructure is an important obstacle restricting India's development.
India today, Electricity supply is unstable.Highway density is much lower than China's level of the year, the manufacturing industry wants to expand production, but also first have to ask when the power outage will come.
The low manufacturing percentage is another highlight.Now India, manufacturing only accounts for about 15% of GDP, not even less than 20. while China in 2008, has long been the world's factory, manufacturing accounts for almost 30% of GDP.
In addition, India's insufficient investment in scientific research also limits its long-term competitiveness. India in 2025, Scientific research accounts for less than 1% of GDPIn 2008, China had exceeded 1.4 percent, and now it has exceeded 2.6 percent.
From a comprehensive perspective, India in 2025 will be about the same level as China in 2008。
Economic scale is close, but the military is slightly weak, similar to China's 2005-2010 year, and technology is also slightly behind, similar to China's 2010.
In fact, India has also realized its own shortcomings, so it has begun to learn from China's development experience.
The National Transformation Council, an Indian think tank, recently released a report analyzing the success of China's relevant plans in leading technological innovation and breakthroughs, and listed Six Strategic Experiences to Learn from India。
These include business development lines for strategic key industries, significantly enhanced R&D investments, integrated innovation ecosystems, implementation and evaluation of related plans, policy continuity and long-term, and a rigorous accountability system.
The report concludes that China's relevant plans have made substantial progress in building a large industrial sector and successfully created reverse dependence, That is, making the world dependent on Chinese production。
What I want to say is that this comparison is not for the purpose of distinguishing the competition. It's about letting us see the current situation clearly, and the rise of a country does not depend on one or two bright spots, but also depends on a complete system.
As for whether India, like China, can make a qualitative change in the next decade, we have to see how it will follow.
References:
The National Transition Commission of India: China's Six Great Strategic Experiences Worth Learning 2025-09-24 06:49 PM
Modi: Dependence on foreign countries is India’s “biggest enemy” 2025-09-24 07:18 PM Source: China Youth Network
3. "Indian officials claim that it has surpassed Japan to become the fourth largest economy. Is it true?" 2025-05-27 11:42 | Source: Observer.com
4. "US Media: India's chip manufacturing has a long road ahead" 2025-09-26 17:10 | Source: Reference News