On October 4th, the presidential election of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan came to an end. Takaichi sanae, the former Minister of Economy and Security, defeated her opponent, Koizumi Shinjiro, Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, by 185 votes to 156 in the runoff, becoming the 39th president of the Liberal Democratic Party and the first female president of the party since its establishment in 1955. If there is no accident, Takaichi will also become the first female prime minister in Japan's history.
The result of this election surprised many observers. In the primary election stage, Takaichi got only 64 votes out of 294 councillors' votes, lower than Koizumi's 80 votes and Chief Cabinet Secretary Lin Fangzheng's 72 votes, but he got 119 votes out of 295 party members' votes, totaling 183 votes. Finally, he entered the runoff with Koizumi Shinjiro, who won the second place in total (164 votes).
Given that in pre-election surveys, Takashi lost less votes than Koizumi and Yoshima Hayashi among Liberal Democratic Party members, many people predicted that she might repeat the mistake she was reversed by Shigeru Ishiba last year in the runoff election. However, what surprised people was that Takashi not only defeated Koizumi with a local vote of 36 to 11, but also overtook Koizumi's 145 votes with 149 parliamentary votes, becoming the first female president in the history of the Liberal Democratic Party.
Who helped the high market early in the final election reversal?
According to the analysis, the 85 votes added by Takashi in the runoff stage mainly came from the camps of former Minister of Economic Security Kobayashi Takayuki and former Secretary General of the Liberal Democratic Party Motegi Toshimitsu who were eliminated in the primary election stage, as well as members who originally voted for Hayashi Fangzheng. Why would these people turn to support the high market? Observers believe that there are three main factors. First, the 44-year-old Koizumi is still junior and lacks experience, making it difficult to act as the helm of "Japanese Pills"; Second, due to the influence of nearly half of the party members voting for the high market in the primary election stage, there is a consideration of catering to the "public opinion" within the party; Third, I hope that Japan's first female prime minister will be born, which can be called a historical turning point, to reverse the declining support rate of the Liberal Democratic Party.
As the opposition party can't recommend a unified candidate, Takaichi will be elected as the 104th Prime Minister of Japan and the first female Prime Minister in history at the provisional parliament held on October 15th. This will fulfill a "dream" she had 25 years ago.
In April 2000, High City and a member of the parliament who graduated from Panasonic School of Economics wrote a book titled "The 21st Century and Japan's Prosperity Spectrum." She wrote a chapter entitled "The Birth of the High City Cabinet." The article began with the following words: "In October 2010, after the election of the President of the Self-Democratic Party, the two Houses held a plenary session to elect the President of the Self-Democratic Party, High City Morning Sun, as the Prime Minister of the Cabinet."In fact, at this time, High City was only a member of the "Vine Bird" who was elected three times and was not in the eyes of the People's Party.
Can Japan’s “prosperity spectrum” be achieved?
In her victory speech after being elected president, Takashi confidently claimed that she would work together with Liberal Democratic Party members to write a new chapter in the history of the Liberal Democratic Party and make the Japanese archipelago stronger and richer for the next generation.
To what extent could her promise be fulfilled?Honestly speaking, the domestic and international challenges facing the high market are far more severe than she imagined.
First of all, Takaichi cannot restore voters' trust in the LDP.In the past year, the self-government party has suffered "three successive defeats" in the House of Representatives, Tokyo City parliamentary elections, and Senate elections. in which there are obvious reasons for the lack of goodwill in the government of the cabinet, but most importantly the people's malaria of the self-government party's "black gold" politics is becoming increasingly unbearable, and strongly demands liquidation of long-standing structural defects.
Shigeru Ishiba once made a gesture of breaking with the "black gold" politics, but was constrained by various forces in the party and made no progress. His successor should conform to the expectations of the people and show courage and determination on the issue of political fund reform. However, judging from Takaichi's attitude during the election campaign, she strongly advertised herself as the "successor of Abe", and even advocated that the former Abe bosses who were marginalized because of the "black gold" scandal should take up important positions again. This kind of perverse behavior will only disappoint voters in the end, and it will be difficult to recover the public support that the Liberal Democratic Party continues to lose.
Second, the high market lacks a rejuvenating remedy for the Japanese economy.Since the beginning of this year, Japan, the largest ally of the United States in Asia, has also been under pressure due to the tariff war launched by the Trump administration of the United States. With shrinking exports and rising prices, the Japanese people can't bear the pressure of the sharp increase in the cost of living, and generally ask the government to come up with effective countermeasures. Takaichi has never served as an economic cabinet minister, and there is a lack of competent counsellors around him. She is a die-hard supporter of "Abenomics", and the "Sanae Economics" put forward during the election campaign is actually a replica of "Abenomics". She has repeatedly said that if she becomes prime minister, she will implement bold financial easing policies and increase investment, especially in cutting-edge technology fields such as semiconductors, industrial robots and quantum computers. However, the scale of Japan's national debt has now reached 266% of GDP. Excessive stimulus may aggravate fiscal risks, and the room for the high market to exert its fists is quite limited. If she can't come up with effective measures to revitalize exports and stabilize prices in a short time, voters will say "no" to her sooner or later.
Third, high markets are more likely to coordinate policies with mainly opposition parties.Since the self-government alliance has lost the majority of seats necessary to control the two houses of the House of Representatives, is in a minority ruling situation, no matter who is president, must coordinate policy and communicate with the opposition parties such as the Constitutional Democratic Party, the Japanese Socialist Party and the National Democratic Party. And this is precisely the weakness of the high market. She is a "theatrical politician" in Japanese politics, is good at incitement, but rather than communicating, especially her extreme right-wing claims, even the ruling partners are difficult to accept, much less about the opposition of the middle line. and unless the ruling alliance expands, absorbs the Japanese Socialist Party or the National Democratic Party joins, even the Congress pass the budget.
Fourth, it is difficult for high markets to cope with the challenges facing Japanese diplomacy.Today, with the accelerated evolution of a century of changes, how Japan can properly position itself and create the most favorable international environment is a severe challenge that any leader must fully respond to. Judging from Takaichi's consistent foreign proposition, she advocates getting rid of dependence on the United States, which not only shows a strong anti-American color, but also is a tough anti-China politician. Takashi has said many times that if he becomes prime minister, he will visit the Yasukuni Shrine in an upright manner. She also advocated that Japan should take tough measures to safeguard "Diaoyu Island is Japan's inherent territory". In 2021, Takaichi submitted a resolution to Congress in the name of the Liberal Democratic Party's political investigation chairman condemning the so-called "Chinese government's suppression of human rights." She also visited Taiwan many times to cheer up the "Taiwan independence" forces, claiming that if something happens across the Taiwan Strait, Japan should dare to "fight a hot war" with China. This will undoubtedly aggravate the tension with China.
As a senior female politician, she has always occupied the C place in Japanese politics and media reports. However, her popularity and exposure has increased, and there are many controversial points that have caused people to question and choke, such as record falsification, black gold suspicion, illegal coveting, intimidation, photography with pro-Nazi people, etc. Her bright appearance is difficult to hide the deadly ribs, and does not rule out some of her cheats caught in the opposition and media to crack old accounts, causing enough to overthrow the high market chain reaction.
(Wu Jinan, consultant of Shanghai Japanese Society and researcher of Shanghai Institute of International Studies)