At the end of September 2025, the largest wave of anti-government protests broke out in the Philippines in decades. People holding signs were everywhere, shouting the slogan of "anti-corruption, fairness and transparency."
President Marcos stands at the forefront of the wind, not only to cope with the domestic accumulated political old bills, but also to protect the external "old friends" from another furnace.Just as everyone was staring at the presidential palace, someone noticed that Marcos quietly met with the Chinese ambassador.
Behind this "disclosure", it involves not only Sino-Philippine relations, but also the strategic abacus that the United States is unwilling to let go in the South China Sea.
Corruption exposure makes the situation out of control, and the support rate of the president jumps
This public anger began with a flood prevention project.It was originally said to improve urban drainage and respond to the typhoon season, as a result of which the project did not start, but the money did not fly.
A level of investigation went up and up, and the top officials of Congress and local governments finally pulled out.This is not the first time this "painting cakes for money" is the practice, but this is too large and it is unbearable.
In the past few days, protests have broken out in more than 20 cities across the country, and Manila has been blocked. Some young people and trade unions even shouted the slogan of "Let him step down." On social media, there are waves of questioning the president. Many people say that this government is "changing the recipe" and will only say it but not act.
Marcos suddenly "lost contact" at the height of the limelight. Officials said he was dealing with state affairs, but no one knew where he was. When people don't show up at this time, everyone naturally thinks the worst. Some lawmakers have publicly stated that Congress will consider initiating impeachment proceedings if the president is unable to control the situation.
Four days later, Marcos appeared again and said he wanted to investigate corruption and set up a special group, but people didn’t buy the bills.
The controversy left by his father's administration is still brewing in society. The problem Marcos has to face now is how to convince people that this is not a show.
The US is looking closely, operating behind it is becoming more and more apparent
Once the political situation is chaotic, it will be easy for external forces to intervene. Recently, many Philippine media have been spreading that the U.S. intelligence agency is secretly promoting political reorganization. There are rumors that the United States intends to support current Defense Secretary Teodoro to take office. The reason is very simple: he is friendly to the US military, has a clear line, and will not "swing from side to side."
While the military soon denied that these were "wind capture footage", such rumors were not the first to appear.The Philippine military has long been deeply influenced by the U.S. military, and has been cooperating deeply from training to intelligence systems.
Some senior military officers are even educated in the United States and are very familiar with the American set. Sometimes, a phone call from Washington works better than an order from the presidential palace.
More subtly, just in the days of Marcos' "disconnection", a U.S. "Ohio" class nuclear submarine landed in the Gulf of Subic, which was not an ordinary warships, but part of a strategic nuclear force, with a very strong symbolic meaning.
The U.S. military has not explained too much about this action, but it is widely believed that this is a signal to the Philippine political arena to send "don't move around".
In the past few months, the Marcos administration's stance on the South China Sea issue has begun to be blurred. On the one hand, it continues to "joint exercises" with the US military, and on the other hand, it releases goodwill in its contacts with China. This strategy of "getting both sides" looks fine on paper, but it is easy to be displeased at both ends in practice.
The United States hopes that the Philippines will stand firmly on its side in the South China Sea issue and continue to play the role of the “frontpost”. But Marcos begins to realize that not only the United States alone can not change the sense of security, but even trade and economic cooperation has not made any substantial progress.
Marcus's private "conflict", the real consideration behind the turn of attitude towards China
While domestic protests were not yet calm, Marcos quietly welcomed Chinese ambassador to the Philippines, Huang Tian Li. The meeting was not big, but the content revealed was not ambiguous.
Marcos expressed the hope that the South China Sea issue will no longer become the "main axis" of China-Philippines relations and reiterated that the Philippines adheres to the "one China" policy. This statement is particularly eye-catching in the current tense situation.
Some analysts believe that Marcos 'move is to strive for a "buffer zone" for himself. The domestic situation is already chaotic enough, and he needs to stabilize external relations, at the very least not to allow any more trouble in the South China Sea. After all, once a gun goes off at sea, it may not only trigger a military conflict, but also allow the domestic opposition to find new reasons to make trouble.
On the other hand, Marcos also raised doubts about U.S. “promises.” Before the confrontation near Yellowstone Island, the U.S. military just made a few words of “verbal support” and did not actually intervene.
The Chinese side hasined a relatively stable pace.The Chinese ambassador expressed the positive attitude of the Chinese side to improve relations during the talks, but also stressed the need for “practical action.”
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs subsequently reiterated China's proposition in the South China Sea and hoped that both sides would resolve the issue through dialogue. This calm attitude made Marcos see another possibility.
Marcus did not turn overnight, but had to adjust. He wanted to continue working with the United States, but also realized that the entire treasury was no longer realistic. He needed a more flexible space, and China, just provided that space.
The South China Sea is not a “rack machine”, the Philippines should think about its way out.
The current situation in the Philippines is clearly internal and external concerns.On the one hand, domestic social contradictions have been accumulating for a long time, high inflation, job instability; on the other hand, the tension in the South China Sea is escalating, and external forces are flowing.If the Marcos government is still putting its energy on the stand-up and statements, it will only put the country in a deeper situation.
The South China Sea issue is indeed complex, but for ordinary Filipinos, what is more concerned about is whether they can afford rice, whether they have a job, and whether their children can afford to read books. These are the key to determining the president's approval rating, not who occupies which reef at sea.
At present, the Philippines is not isolated in the region, and other ASEAN countries are also pushing for consultations on the South China Sea Code of Conduct, hoping to reduce the risk of conflict through rules.
China has always expressed support in this regard. If the Philippines can return to the framework of multilateral negotiations, it may be more meaningful than "playing a double game" with the United States alone.
Marcos "disclosure" is not to give up his position, but to try to regain the initiative. Whether this strategy can succeed depends on how he moves next. If we just say one thing and do another, I am afraid neither China and the United States will be satisfied;
But if we can really find a middle line that is in our own interests, it may be possible to resolve the current impasse.
The Philippines is experiencing a profound political turning point.Marcos is continuing to be a “traditional ally” or trying to get out of his own path?This is not only related to his personal political destiny, but also determines the position of the Philippines in the regional landscape in the coming years.
At present, the most important thing is not to shout slogans or choose sides, but to see clearly: where the interests of the country are and where the hopes of the people are. No matter how stormy the South China Sea is, it should not cover up the problems on the shore. Whoever can stabilize the land is qualified to talk about the future of the sea.
Source of information:
The spokesman of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China on the routine press conference (30 September 2025), responding to the progress of the China-Philippines relations and the "Code of Conduct" consultation, expressed the willingness to promote the stable development of the bilateral relations, but stressed that "China's core interests cannot be challenged."