After Hamas responded to the US "20-point plan", many parties actively promoted ceasefire negotiations in Gaza. However, differences within Israel intensified during a critical period, with the far right calling the negotiations a "serious mistake."
The Gaza ceasefire negotiations, and what else to focus on,
△ Gaza Strip (data map)
Negotiations will be held
Many parties have gone to Egypt
On the evening of October 4 local time, the Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement saying that Egypt will host a meeting between the Israeli and Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) delegations on 6 October, in the context of Egypt’s continued efforts with other mediators to promote the end of the Gaza conflict, and that the two sides will discuss the specifics and details of the exchange of all detainees.
of Egypt
AFP reported that White House officials confirmed on the 4th that Trump's son-in-law Kushnerwith the United States Witkov, Special Envoy for the Middle EastHe travelled to Egypt to determine the details of the release of the detainees and discuss a peace plan.
Israel's Channel 12 TV station quoted a senior Israeli official as saying that if negotiations go well, Israeli detainees may be released "within a few days."
Trump Pressures Hamas: Must Act Quickly
US President Trump posted an article on his social platform "Real Social" on the 4th, saying that Israel has agreed to preliminary withdrawal route from Gaza Strip, and share relevant plans with Hamas. Once Hamas confirms that a ceasefire will take effect immediately, an exchange of detainees and prisoners will be launched.“This will create conditions for the next phase of withdrawal.”
Earlier that day, Trump posted on “Real Social” stating, Hamas must act quickly or face consequences。
Trump also said he appreciated the “temporary halt of Israel’s bombing” to create conditions for the release of detainees and facilitate the peace agreement in Gaza, saying he would not tolerate delays and called for such arrangements to be completed as soon as possible.
Prime Minister: Hamas will be disarmed
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a video speech on the evening of the 4th, saying that he hoped to announce the release of all detainees in the next few days.
He said that after coordination with US President Trump, Israel is pushing for a "diplomatic move to turn the situation around" to urge Hamas to release all detainees while Israeli forces continue to fight deep into Gaza City。 Netanyahu believes that the only reason why Hamas is willing to release all detainees is military and diplomatic pressure.
Netanyahu said that in the first phase, all detainees will be released and the Israeli army will adjust its deployment in Gaza and continue to monitor the Gaza Strip. The goal of the second phase is to ensure that Hamas disarms and Gaza is demilitarized.
He said he had directed a negotiating team led by Strategic Affairs Minister Delmer to go to Egypt for final consultations on technical details. Negotiations to be completed “within a few days”。
Smoothie (the information map)
Israel’s far-right finance minister, Smotrich, said that day that Netanyahu’s decision to negotiate was a “serious mistake.”National Security Minister Ben Guevil said that if Hamas still exists after the release of all detainees, his “Jewish Power Party” would no longer be a part of the government.
The two men have repeatedly claimed that if the Netanyahu government makes concessions they think are "too weak" on security policy or the Gaza issue, it will consider withdrawing from the ruling coalition. The far-right party led by the two men is an important part of Israel's current coalition government and has a key influence on Netanyahu's policy direction.
Israeli troops are still attacking
Ceasefire faces triple challenges
△ Gaza Strip (data map)
Hamas issued a statement on the evening of the 3rd in response to the US's "20-point plan" and expressed its willingness to immediately start negotiations through the mediator. but analysts believe， Hamas 'responseIt highlighted positive aspects such as the release of detainees and the transfer of administrative powers to the Palestinian authorities, but Deliberately avoided sensitive issues such as disarmament。
On the same day Hamas responded, Trump spoke on social media, demanding that Israel "immediately stop bombing Gaza." According to Israeli media, the Israeli army continues to carry out "defensive operations" in this context. The Gaza Strip Media Office said on the 4th that since the early morning of the same day, Israeli troops have conducted military operations in densely populated areas of Gaza. 93 air and artillery strikes were launched, resulting in 70 deathsAmong them, 47 people died in Gaza City.
△ Gaza Strip (data map)
Analysts believe that the current ceasefire in Gaza faces three challenges:
A short-term ceasefire and the exchange of hostages are vulnerable to interference from extremist forces within the two sides, and differences between the two sides on prisoners lists, safe passageways and timetables also make it difficult to implement the agreement;
Second, in the long run, the success of the negotiations depends on whether the United States can force Israel to make concessions, whether Hamas can accept the weakening of power, and the positions of regional powers;
Three are the core contradictions: Israel insists on disarming Hamas, while Hamas refuses and demands a complete withdrawal of Israeli troops, and the U.S. mediation is difficult to bridge fundamental differences.