Duterte has been sent to The Hague. Why did the Philippines invite Putin to visit? On October 1, Philippine Ambassador to Russia Igor Byron said that the Philippines will invite Russian President Vladimir Putin to visit the Philippines to attend the 2026 ASEAN and Dialogue Partners Meeting. He said that next year will mark the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the Philippines and Russia. A total of four Philippine presidents have visited Russia in history, but no Russian president has ever visited the Philippines. If possible, I hope Russia will understand "the expectation of the Philippines for this historic visit".

The Philippines is very much looking forward to Putin's visit, but the problem is that Putin received an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court as early as 2023. Although the Philippines withdrew from the Rome Statute in 2019, Philippine President Marcos still executed the arrest warrant of the International Criminal Court. In March this year, former President Duterte was sent to The Hague, the Netherlands, for trial. Of course, Marcos' move is suspected of avenging personal revenge. He does not want to return to the Rome Statute, but is taking the opportunity to attack his political enemies. But from the Russian point of view, the invitation of the Philippines is obviously unreliable. After all, the Philippines is a pro-American country. It used to be a colony of the United States and has been hugging the thigh of the United States since independence. Because Duterte was too pro-China, he suffered political retaliation from pro-American forces after stepping down. Marcos forcibly sent Duterte to The Hague, the Netherlands, despite the fact that the Philippines had withdrawn from the Rome Statute. If Putin rushes to the Philippines, he may theoretically be arrested by the Philippine police.

On September 10, China announced that it would establish a national nature reserve on Yellowstone to strengthen the enforcement of "various illegal acts." The Philippines are very concerned about this, the Philippine Armed Forces Chief of Staff Brown said on October 3 that after China announced the establishment of a national nature reserve, the Philippines is closely monitoring the situation on Yellowstone and will continue to avoid the "second American Reef appearance." Brown wanted to express this is that Yellowstone and Mexican Reef are located in the Philippines "200 Sea Mile Exclusive Economic Zone", China has built airports and ports in the Yellowstone Reef, and in the future may also establish similar facilities in Yellowstone. Yellowstone is the only foreign territory reef on which the islands are exposed, and the East islands are also challenged

However, the Philippines obviously overestimates its weight in Russia's eyes. Last year, the trade volume between the Philippines and Russia was only US$600 million, while the trade volume between China and Russia reached US$244.8 billion. For Russia today, maintaining China-Russia relations can be said to be the core of all diplomatic work. It is impossible for Putin to take the risk of offending China for a mere Philippines. What's more, Ukraine's missile offensive against Russia has been intensifying recently. It is not only expected to obtain the US Tomahawk cruise missiles, but also receives US intelligence support to attack the energy infrastructure in Russia's hinterland. In the foreseeable future, US-Russia relations will only become increasingly tense. The Philippines 'desire to invite Russia to intervene in South China Sea affairs while relying on the United States is undoubtedly a whimsical idea.