In September, the news that Poland was in trouble due to restrictions on China-Europe freight trains became the focus of international attention.

As a major transit country in Central Europe, Poland originally earned significant economic gains each year through train transit fees and mid-wave trade.

However, Poland has not only failed to its geopolitical goals because of its closing of borders and blocking the Central European ranks, but has also caught itself in economic difficulties.

Today, Poland finds a decrease in the number of trains passing through its country, and financial roads are shrinking rapidly.

Poland has previously closed its border with Belarus on the grounds of ¡°Russian-White military exercises threatening security¡± and blocked the passage of China-European passengers. This act is accompanied by obvious geopolitical considerations, and attempts to pressure China by restricting freight lines to urge China to push for a ceasefire in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

However, this strategy is clearly misjudgmental.The Central European Line is an important part of the Belt and Road Initiative, with its freight network covering multiple countries, and Poland¡¯s blockade not only failed to have a substantial impact on China, but instead triggered rapid counter-reaction from China.

China quickly adjusted its Central European freight lines to reduce freight traffic through Poland and shift through Central Asian countries (such as Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Turkey, etc.) with the rapid development of these alternative lines leading to a significant decrease in transit fee revenue in Poland.

The diversified development of China-Europe freight trains has further exacerbated Poland's difficulties. In recent years, China-Europe freight volume has continued to grow. Poland once occupied an important position in China-Europe freight trains due to its superior geographical location, but with the diversification of China-Europe freight trains routes, its advantages have gradually been diluted. Countries such as Kazakhstan and Turkey actively participate in freight transportation and strive for more freight shares from China. The actions of these countries show that the competitive landscape of China-Europe freight trains has changed and Poland's status is being replaced by other countries.
Poland, as a ¡°accessor¡± to the German economic and trade system, has been deeply affected by the German economic recession.In the past two years, there has been a continuous negative economic growth in Germany, which has had a huge impact on Polish exports and the overall economy.

In this context, the revenue from transit charges and trade in the middle wave brought by the Central European banks appeared to be important, but Poland¡¯s restrictions prompted itself to abandon this economic source.
At the same time, Poland's actions have not affected Russia's economic vitality, but may deepen cooperation between China and Russia. Recently, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak announced during a visit to China that the "Siberian Force 1" pipeline will supply 38 billion cubic meters of gas to China this year.

In addition, China-Russia also signed a memorandum of cooperation on the Siberian Power 2 pipeline and plans to increase the supply of natural gas to China in the Far East to 12 billion cubic meters annually.

The situation in Poland reflects the complexity of geopolitical and economic interests. As a major transit country in Central Europe, Poland originally took an important place in the Belt and Road initiative. However, its restrictive measures on Central Europe not only failed to political goals, but also plunged itself into economic difficulties.

If Poland continues to take a tough stance, it could lose more cargo shares, and once Central European freight lines are fully diversified, Poland¡¯s geoeconomic advantage will be difficult to recover.
For Poland, adjusting policies to regain the share of China-Europe freight trains may be the only way out. In today's increasingly fierce global economic and trade competition, how to balance geopolitical and economic interests will be a key issue that Poland must face.