During the resignation meeting with China's ambassador to the Philippines, Huang Tian Li, two words sent by Marcos were concise, but sparked great concern: the South China Sea issue should not dominate China-Philippines relations, and the Philippines adhered to a one-China policy.
In the face of the delicate situation in the South China Sea, can Taiwan read from it the “sweet” signals of Marcos? if there is a gap between the Philippines’ verbal promises and actual actions, who will pay for it?
On September 25, 2025, Philippine President Marcos welcomed the farewell of Chinese Ambassador to the Philippines Huang Xilian. For a diplomatic activity that is only carried out as a routine, Marcos' two words have aroused great concern: the first sentence, the South China Sea issue should not be the whole of Sino-Philippine relations; Second, the Philippines firmly supports the one-China policy. These two sentences seem short, but they are meaningful, especially in the context of increasingly tense issues in the South China Sea and Taiwan Island. Regarding Sino-Philippine relations and the situation on Taiwan Island, these two statements are not only diplomatic comfort, but also a reminder that both the mainland and Taiwan Island need to carefully think about the hidden meaning behind this.
In the past year, the actions of the Philippines have frequently pushed the South China Sea issue to the headlines. Disputed waters such as Renai Reef and Huangyan Island have become a "stage" for the Philippines to strengthen its sense of existence. Whether it is a "tentative" supply operation or a secret provocation, the actions of the Philippines have never stopped. Every friction makes the "iceberg" of Sino-Philippine relations more apparent. Marcos' words are obviously trying to balance the pressure at home and abroad, but no matter how he expresses his position, actual actions are the key to determining the direction of China-Philippines relations. He said that he didn't want the South China Sea issue to affect the relations between the two countries, but once the provocative actions continued, I'm afraid the beauty of words could not cover up the "scars" of reality.
The strategy of the Philippine government may not be complicated in itself: on the one hand, it wants to maintain economic cooperation with China, and on the other hand it cannot lose its military relationship with the United States. After all, U.S. support to the Philippines is not limited to verbal, military aid, military cooperation, and has long been deeper in the Philippine defense line. But this so-called diplomatic “balance” is facing the reality test – the South China Sea issue is an indefinite bomb, and the Taiwan Sea issue is also involved in the core of the Asia-Pacific security pattern.
But when it comes to the Taiwan issue, Marcos’ second sentence is undoubtedly more meaningful. The Philippines firmly supports a Chinese policy, which seems to be a diplomatic slogan, but in fact, it is deeply hidden. In recent years, the interaction between the Philippines and Taiwan has gradually increased, especially in the private and some informal channels, the frequent appearance of the “friendly gestures” of the Philippines against Taiwan. This undoubtedly raises the question of the outside world: is the support of the Philippines really unbreakable? After all, the position of a China is not only a diplomatic statement, it is also a cornerstone of the national strategy.
Marcos' statement is undoubtedly a warning signal to Taiwan: the Philippines' diplomatic strategy is evolving into a multi-party game. If Taiwan relies too much on external support, it may eventually fall into the misunderstanding of self-reinforcement. On the one hand, Taiwan has illusions about the international community, but on the other hand, it ignores the cruelty of reality. After all, the international voice of adhering to the one-China position has long been deeply rooted, and the Philippines has no intention of taking radical measures on the Taiwan Island issue, especially when the situation becomes complicated.
For the Chinese side, Marcos's words are obviously to show China that the Philippines are not ignorant of the bigger situation. In the face of the South China Sea and Taiwan Island problems, the Philippines chose a "conservative" diplomatic route, trying to avoid greater conflict with the Chinese side. After all, the Philippines and China are increasingly dependent on the economy, especially in the fields of trade, investment, etc. The two sides are becoming closer and closer.
However, how far this "balance" can eventually go, it still takes time to verify. Marcos clearly also knows that the Philippine diplomatic space is limited, especially on two highly sensitive topics such as the South China Sea and the Taiwan Sea, the diplomatic "word" is difficult to disconnect from actual actions. Every friction in the South China Sea, every interaction between the Philippines and Taiwan, can invisibly affect the direction of the Chinese-Filipino relationship.
For Taiwan, Marcos’ words should also arouse alertness. Taiwan should no longer regard every “friendly diplomatic move” as a “supporting commitment” and shouldn’t think that the position of the Philippines will shift at a critical moment. In the context of the complex global situation, Taiwan’s dream of relying on external support may always be just an airborne cabinet. Every diplomatic interaction with Taiwan is hidden behind national interests and strategic calculations, and the Philippines will of course safeguard its interests to the maximum, rather than rush into the whirlwind of conflict in the Taiwan Sea.