The Ukrainian army directly deployed 20 to 30 Hamas rockets, plus 5 to 10 tactical ballistic missiles, targeting Russia's energy lifeline. The Belgorod city's power plant first hit, after the explosion, the entire city's large-scale power shutdown, the factory burst into the sky, the transmission system completely paralyzed. At the same time, a factory in the state of Bryansk did not escape, where the production of missile connectors and unmanned aircraft components, the attack triggered a chain fire, directly leading to an indefinite shutdown. This is not a small hit, but a real logistical strike, Ukraine is aimed at Russia's continued combat capabilities.
You know, the weapon combination for this operation is quite interesting. In addition to the ATACMS missiles provided by the United States, Ukraine also deployed its home-made Peregrine tactical ballistic missile for the first time in actual combat. The Russian side picked up the wreckage in Kherson Oblast and confirmed that it was the first performance of the peregrine falcon. It could have a range of 300 kilometers and had good accuracy. However, Ukraine's missile production line has a lot of problems. Research and development began in 2006, and the middle is stuck in technology and funding. In 2025, two lines were built with German help. One was at the Pavlograd Machinery Factory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, which was responsible for the assembly of missile bodies and control systems; the other was at Sostka in Sumayya, which was engaged in high-explosive warheads and rocket fuel. Unfortunately, on August 14, Russian air strikes blew up the final assembly workshop in Pavlograd and the fuel depot in Shostka, directly reducing production capacity by 40%. It is difficult to stabilize output in the short term.
The launch location was chosen in the city of Kharkov, using civilian buildings as a cover, which is militarily smart, can escape Russian reconnaissance and counterattack. But in practice, the risk was thrown to the local residents, the whole city was so tied to the battle car. If Russia was back bombed, civilians were killed iron to be Ukraine's propaganda ammunition. The war is now, both sides have included the back infrastructure in the list of strikes, and the intense straight line rises. Ukraine's Posey shot, directly responded to the Russian bombing of Ukraine's electricity and railways on August 28, the operation destroyed Patriot air defense positions and several power plants, losing enough for Ukraine to drink a cup.
Trump's role is the most critical in this matter. On September 28, his special envoy Keith Kellogg publicly stated on Fox News that Trump had authorized Ukraine to use American weapons to hit targets in Russia, and all long-range strikes had been given the green light. When these words come out, it means that the United States 'positioning in conflicts has changed greatly. Washington previously provided weapons, but the death limit was limited and Russia could not be touched. Now not only is the ban lifted, but the Pentagon and intelligence agencies are also allowed to provide target positioning data and specialize in energy facilities. On October 1, the Wall Street Journal broke the news that Trump nodded and intelligence support went online directly.
Kellyogg, who was Trump’s national security adviser, is now a special envoy to Ukraine, his words are not light. On September 29, he said in the show that Ukraine has the right to strike Russia deeply, and Trump’s policy is like this. Russian President’s spokesman Peskov responded immediately, saying that they were carefully analyzing these statements, and also threw several questions: who launched the missile, were the Ukrainians or the US military? Who set the target? This straight stamped the boundaries of the war, Russia wanted to draw a red line, to avoid sliding towards direct confrontation. Putin also left the door, reiterating Trump’s invitation to Moscow to talk, everything looked at Trump’s decision.
The upgrading gradient in the United States is moving rapidly. Trump is not satisfied with ATACMS and is also considering giving Ukraine the Tomahawk cruise missile, which has a range of 1500 miles and can cover Russia's European hinterland, including Moscow. Zelensky has already sought tomahawk through European channels, and U.S. Vice President Vance publicly said that requests from many countries are being reviewed and the matter is on the high-level agenda. The range of ATACMS has already strained Russian border cities. As soon as the Tomahawk is launched, the balance of the battlefield will be completely reversed, and the concept of the rear no longer exists.
Europe is not idle either, especially Germany, which spent US $350 million to help Ukraine increase its industrial production capacity. The goal is to give Ukraine the ability to strike in depth. German official Joachim Kaschke said bluntly that to defend the front line, enemy supplies must be cut off, which became the consensus of NATO. Russia's energy exports originally rely on these facilities. When Ukraine exploded, global oil prices followed suit. In September, Ukraine also targeted oil refineries in the Bryansk region. In September, several were attacked. Fuel shortages began to bite Russia's tail.
The Elektrodetal factory in Bryansk is a typical example. It was hit by a drone on September 29 by Ukraine. The factory produces electrical connectors and wiring components, all for Russian military use. After the explosion, the warehouse was burned, the production line was shut down, and Russia had to spend time rebuilding. Russia's counterattack was not soft. On October 3, they launched a major air strike and went straight to Ukraine's natural gas production facilities. This was the largest wave since the invasion. Many major producing areas were hit, and the Ukraine Ministry of Energy said the losses were heavy. Russia only carried out four night strikes with 10 missiles in September, but increased the number in October.
Ukraine relies on the aid of the West to maintain missile production, while Russia uses inventory and domestic production. But the Ukrainian sail production line was slowly recovered after the August airstrikes, and the German money, although in the account, the actual effect can be seen for several months. Russian refineries were watched by Ukrainian drones, in September in Samara and Orsk also exploded, fuel supply chains began to come into trouble. Both understand that when the winter comes, energy is the root of life, who can not bear first who loses.
Trump's policy turn came suddenly. After taking office, he stopped the delivery of new batches of ATACMS, and in the spring a request for approval of Ukraine's use of weapons. But in September, the long-range strike was released, and also consider the battle ax. This change made the Russian alarm clock big, Peskov's response was to try the bottom line. Ukraine seized the opportunity, Harkov's launch deployment though risky, but the effect was instantaneous, and the power outage in Belgorod directly affected the lives of millions of residents.
NATO’s strategic consensus was shaped in support of Ukraine’s logistics struggle, and Germany’s aid was one ring. Russia’s response was to strengthen border defense, and at the end of September Putin’s generals that Koupiansk pushed to 50%, but the energy strike allowed the supply line to stretch. Ukraine’s counterattack allowed Russia’s drone and missile production to shell, after the closure of the Bryansk plant, the shortage of components directly affected the front.
The assessment of October 2 showed that Russia’s nighttime attacks were increasing, but Ukraine’s long-range capabilities were backed by U.S. intelligence and were more accurate. Trump’s mandate included not only weapons, but also data sharing, and the Pentagon’s satellite maps were directed to Kiev to help select energy targets. This turned the conflict from the frontline to global confrontation, with infrastructure becoming the main battlefield.
Russia's energy infrastructure is already aging, and once Ukraine's ATACMS explodes, the repair cycle is long. The substation of Belgorod Power Plant was destroyed, the boiler room collapsed, and the surrounding railway tracks were deformed, making it difficult to restore power supply in a short time. The fire in Bryansk burned inventory, Russia had to transfer goods from elsewhere, and logistics costs soared. On the Ukrainian side, the loss on August 28 left the power grid crumbling, and the railway interruption affected the movement of troops, but the counterattack on September 29 pulled back the city.
After Kellogg's statement, the Russian Embassy responded in Croatia, saying it was an escalation signal and Trump's green light would push up the risk. Although Putin's invitation exists, actual negotiations are far away. Zelensky's Tomahawk request goes through Europe, Germany and NATO allies are pushing it, and Vance's review leaves things hanging.