[Text/Observer Network Qi Qian]
According to Japan Communications, on the afternoon of October 4, Japan's former Minister of Economic Security, Cao市早苗, defeated the Japanese self-government party president, and she became Japan's first female prime minister, creating history.
The results of the election showed that High Market Early Says won 185 votes, of which the parliamentary votes 149 votes, the provincial votes 36 votes, the provincial votes 156 votes, including parliamentary votes 145 votes, and the provincial votes 11 votes.
Takaichi sanae, 64, is one of the representatives of Japanese right-wing politicians and is known for his ultra-conservative stance.
Takashi has a rich political experience and has been elected to the House of Representatives 10 times. In 1993, she was elected as a member of the House of Representatives for the first time as a non-party member. In 1996, she joined the Liberal Democratic Party, and successively served as the head of northern Okinawa, the president of the Liberal Democratic Party's government investigation, the general affairs minister and the economic security minister.
High City is the faithful advocate of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, the firm heir of the "Abe Line", known as "Abe Love Will". she has not belonged to the faction within the self-government party, but has always lived as a conservative leader of the self-government party, and is deeply supported by self-government party grassroots members and conservatives and right wing.
In terms of relations with China, Gao Shi has publicly visited the Yasukuni Shrine on many occasions, denied the history of the Nanjing Massacre, and promoted the "China Threat Theory." As the election campaign was in full swing, on October 1, Gao Shi published a signed article in the American think tank "Hudson Institute", recklessly discussing the Taiwan issue.
As the new president, can Gao Shi solve the stubborn problems within the Liberal Democratic Party? Where will the future Takashi Cabinet take Japan? Are China-Japan relations about to face more severe challenges? After the election results were released, Observer Network immediately talked to Sha Qingqing, a Japanese expert and historian.
"There is a small surprise, but in the sense." said Sharif when he talked about the election results.
Shahin Qing pointed out that in the second round of voting, the self-government party member is likely not to choose one of the two people, but to choose a person that is less disgusting. For many party members, compared to the high market, the young spring in the second is still young and lacking qualifications.
Sha Qingqing analyzed that Japan's right-wing and xenophobic tendencies may intensify in the future. On the one hand, the election of the "hawkish" Takashi may inspire the right-wing forces to further expand; on the other hand, Takashi himself lacks diplomatic experience and balancing skills, and may make controversial remarks related to China "intentionally or unintentionally" and cause a deadlock between China and Japan. relations.
He said directly that he did not look well at the high market's governing ability, because she lacked both the country's political experience outside of the "Abbey Line" and the ability to dance long hands like Abe's, so how long the high market can be prime minister, I still don't know. "
Here is the full dialogue:
Observer Network: May I ask, how do you evaluate Takashi Saami's election as president of the Liberal Democratic Party?
The Blue Shark:In my opinion, along with some Japanese media analysis, the outcome should be a small surprise, but also in anticipation.
At the beginning of the voting, most people would think that Gaoshi had a hope of reaching the second round. After all, Gaoshi has a relatively good base of local party members and is relatively leading in pre-election polls. However, I didn't expect that she would still beat Koizumi by a narrow margin in the second round. At the same time, some senior Japanese political analysts also predicted that Koizumi would narrowly win in the second round of voting or repeat the reversal when Shigeru Ishiba was elected last year.
Therefore, relatively speaking, Japan may be slightly surprised by Takaichi's victory. Personally, I really underestimated the impact and influence of all kinds of negative news in Koizumi the week before the election, such as the network water army and the suspected cancellation of voting qualifications of party members in other camps, on this election.
However, looking at today's international situation, from the United States to Europe to Asia, there is a trend of the rise of the right wing. There is an interesting phenomenon. Right-wing female representatives from various countries have stepped onto the political stage one after another. Before Gao Shi and Miao, German Choice Party Leader Weidel, French National Front Chairman Le Pen, and Italian Prime Minister Meloni were all examples.
In other words, in my opinion, the victory of the high market is just a Japanese phenomenon in the global right-wing trend.
There is an opinion that female conservative politicians tend to behave harder and more extreme than men. So I think it may be a strategy for a far-right political choice. For example, there is a very contradictory place in the high market: on the one hand, she is about to become Japan's first female prime minister; but on the other hand, she is extremely conservative on a variety of social issues, including opposing female emperors and married couples.
I guess that many MPs in the second round did not choose to go to Ho Chi Minh, but to go to Ho Chi Minh City, also because of the sense of crisis within the party: the party's conservative right-wing position is challenged by some more right-wing political forces.
Besides, for members of the Liberal Democratic Party, the second round of voting is not to choose the candidate you like, but to choose the candidate you don't hate so much, with the mentality of "I know neither of them is reliable, but I really hate Shinjiro even more". Many people really can't get through the hurdles in their hearts when facing Koizumi Shinjiro. In their view, Koizumi is a "young man with poor qualifications and ability".
Observer Network: Takashi Saami is known for her extremely conservative stance. How do you think her election will affect Japanese society?
The Blue Shark:I think that the rise of the high market may accelerate the conservative or right-wing tendency in Japan and amplify a series of contradictions surrounding the issue of foreigners in Japanese society.
Because Takaichi himself is a candidate with a strong conservative color. During the election campaign, she made many controversial remarks against foreigners in Japan, including claiming that "foreigners kick deer in Nara". Although this remark rebounded in Japanese public opinion, and she herself revised it before the election, with the election of Takaichi, xenophobia in Japan may further intensify.
Takaichi, who holds high the banner of "right wing" and "xenophobia", becomes prime minister, which may stimulate and stimulate xenophobic thoughts in Japan. Therefore, in the future, Japan under the rule of Takaichi may repeat the situation during the South Korean Yoon Seok-yue government, including the occurrence of demonstrations against foreigners. It is not surprising that * (in fact, it already has).
Of course, after Gao Shi takes office, he may also make some "callbacks" to ease the intensity of his controversy on this issue.
On a political level, the problem that follows is that the high market is only following the Abe line, but does not have its own "son-soldier".
At present, there is considerable uncertainty and instability within the Liberal Democratic Party and the ruling coalition led by the Liberal Democratic Party.
First of all, there are many factions within the Liberal Democratic Party and are fragmented. Within the Liberal Democratic Party, there is a group of people who want to be more conservative and right-wing, and then stabilize the basic disk of conservatism; At the same time, there is another group of people who are relatively more middle-road and pragmatic. Whether the Liberal Democratic Party will break up with the Komeito Party, the 30-year-old ruling alliance, and whether it can find other right-wing conservative small parties to cooperate is also a greater challenge.
The fragmentation of Japanese politics will continue or even intensify.
Observer Network: Can you predict the policy direction of the Gaoshi Cabinet?
The Blue Shark:Let me summarize it, there are two choices in front of the market: party benefits or national benefits.
From the perspective of the self-government party interests, the city needs to maintain the conservative basics and prevent the loss of voters. For this, the city can choose to become a leader that seems to be harder.
There is a big question here, that is, whether Takaichi can balance the relations and interests within the Liberal Democratic Party and Japan.
The information shows that although High City has been in power for many years, she has not served as a key role in the self-government party, such as director-general, nor has she served as a minister of important provincial departments in the cabinet, such as the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Defense, etc. She has served only as a general affairs minister and special officer for economic security, lack of experience in the core decision-making layer of foreign affairs and domestic affairs, and has long been in a comparative marginal position.
At the same time, the ruling coalition led by the Self-Democratic Party faces less than half of the seats in both Houses of Commons.
Therefore, I have to draw a big question mark as to whether Gao Shi can be a good party president and prime minister in the future. Judging from her resume, I don't particularly optimistic that she can handle these things well.
In fact, how long the high city can be the prime minister, is still an unknown number.
Therefore, I think the coming to power of Gaoshi is more of an indicative event. As for whether the Takaichi Cabinet can operate for a long time, or even last for a year like the Ishiba Cabinet, there is great uncertainty.
Observer Network: Do you think that after Gao Shi takes office, he will continue the traditional tough tone towards China?
The Blue Shark:Of course. high market has always been very "right". all her political views, economic views, and views on China, are inheriting the line of Abe's promotion. However, she does not seem to have the soft body of Abe's long-handed good dancing. Abe in the same time building his right-wing representative image, will also take a very practical way to deal with a series of domestic diplomatic issues, to China, to the United States.
From past experience, it seems that the high market has only learned about Abe's "right", but does not necessarily learn about the side of Abe's pragmatism.
Therefore, I believe that China-Japan relations will definitely not improve significantly in the future, and may even be further rigid due to Takashi's extreme and inappropriate statements on sensitive issues. On the one hand, this is because Gao Shi has "intentions", that is, she expresses her own right-wing ideology; on the other hand, it may also be because she has "unintentional", that is, she has no relevant diplomatic experience and policy foundation, and lacks the necessary knowledge and experience, so she naturally makes her remarks indiscriminately and makes mistakes.
I still hold the same view as whether Takaichi will continue to visit the Yasukuni Shrine in the future, that is, she will probably follow the old routine when Abe was prime minister-people won't go, but sacrifices will arrive. In fact, before and after being elected as the president, she herself took an evasive and vague attitude towards whether the Yasukuni Shrine was held or not.
Now there are about 10 days until the nomination of the Japanese prime minister.I guess that she may have gone to Yogyakarta as the “Chairman of the People’s Party” before this time, and played a short time, and also had a tradition for her right-wing basic disc.
The Chinese side has made statements about the election of Cao市早苗 as president of the Democratic Party.
On October 4, a spokesperson for the China Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in response to questions from foreign media that we have taken note of the election results, which is Japan's internal affairs. It is hoped that Japan will abide by the principles and consensus of the four political documents between China and Japan, honor its political commitments on major issues such as history and Taiwan, pursue a positive and rational China policy, and implement the orientation of comprehensively promoting strategic and mutually beneficial relations.
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