To be honest, this Russia-Ukraine conflict is almost halfway through 2025. Everyone can see that Ukraine really cannot withstand it. In his recent public speeches, Zelensky finally told the truth. The country's resources have been basically drained and the size of the army has more than tripled. But where does the money come from? He didn't make this up himself, it was true. The Ukraine army now claims to have about 800,000 troops, several times the number before the war, but its local finances cannot cover such a large expenditure. Think about it, ammunition, equipment, and logistics all rely on external assistance. Without these, I don't think the front line will last long. When these words came out, there was a stir in the international community, because the West always claimed that Russia was running out of ammunition, but what about the truth? The Russian military factory kept going, and the production line was in full swing, and there was no sign of collapse at all.
Let's start with the dilemma on the Ukraine side. You know, Zelensky has been relying on Western aid to survive his life since Russia launched a special military operation in 2022. By 2025, the total amount of aid from the United States will exceed US$175 billion, but this money is spent quickly. At the end of January 2025, Zelensky publicly stated that U.S. military assistance has not stopped, but 40% of Ukraine's military supplies point to the United States. What happened? After Trump came to power, he directly got stuck in his neck. In February, the United States offered to exchange for half of Ukraine's mineral resources, including key gadgets such as graphite and lithium. Zelensky did not agree, saying that it was not a debt but a free aid, but the United States refused and insisted on signing an agreement. It was not until March that Zelensky relented and said that the agreement was ready, but the matter dragged on and the aid fleet was delayed. As a result, Ukraine's front line was short of ammunition, soldiers could not receive enough supplies, and losses soared.
This is not just a matter of money, the Ukrainian economy itself is empty. In 2024, the military deficit will account for more than 20% of GDP. In 2025, the local budget will increase by 412.3 billion hryvnia, mainly investing in the production of weapons and drones, but this money is a drop in the bucket. The expansion of the army to 800,000 means that a huge amount of money has to be burned every day, and a lot of money will be spent on recruiting and training new recruits alone. Not to mention the energy system being blown to pieces by Russian drones. In the first half of 2025, Russia's attacks on Ukrainian power stations and substations continued. In August, a major offensive left more than 100,000 people without power. The National Bank of Ukraine estimates that it will spend US $2.9 billion to import natural gas this year, but where will the money come from? Local oil and gas production facilities have also been disabled, many places across the country are blind, factories are shut down, and people's livelihood is suffering. This is what Zelensky called "completely hollowing out". The country's foundation is weak. After more than three years of war, it has been drained long ago.
Turning around and looking at Russia, the situation is completely different. Western media always say that Russia is running out of ammunition and food, but with the data in 2025, who will believe it? Russia's military-industrial complex is as stable as an old dog. In 2024, it lost 1400 main battle tanks and 3700 infantry fighting vehicles, leaving 46% to 48% of its reserves before the war. They turned to Iran and North Korea to replenish imports and worked overtime on production lines. In the first half of 2025, the output of drones will reach 34,000, far exceeding the same period last year. Defense spending accounts for more than 6% of GDP. The factory produces 200 infantry fighting vehicles a year, and the truck fleet of tank parts is transported to the front line every day. Russia plans to send 150,000 more troops to Ukraine this year, for a total of 600,000 troops. This is no exaggeration. Economically, although the sanctions bite, they have moved to the Asian market, and their oil and gas exports have not stopped, and their military expenditures have not been missed. Putin has a good calculation. By 2025, the war will become a war of attrition. Russia has a large population base and can make up for the gap without forced conscription.
You see, this comparison is obvious. Ukraine relying on aid over the days, a break in panic; Russia is self-sufficient, the production line turns can not stop. In August 2025, the Ukrainian intelligence report, Russia began to deploy a new type of small cruise missiles, pulled directly from the rear test site to the frontline for use. This shows that their military technology is behind and is still iterative. The Western assessment says that the Russian economy is affected, but the military spending is stable, and the pressure is not to the point of "bombing out of food". Instead, it is Ukraine, soldiers on the frontline such as ammunition and so on, warehouses are empty. Zelensky this answer comes out, is also in the search for rescue, the international situation is shifted, the U.S
For aid, we have to talk about the broken things in Europe separately. The EU has promised a lot of money, but its implementation is a mess. In March 2025, at the Brussels Summit, the EU agreed to use frozen Russian assets to lend to Ukraine, bypassing Hungary's veto. But Hungarian Prime Minister Orban quit and directly sued the European Union in August, saying it was illegal. And the result? Billions of euros of aid were stuck there, and Hungary's veto power made the whole EU foreign ministers' meeting uproar. The EU wants to deprive Hungary of its voting rights, but the procedure is complicated, and it has been delayed until September. Big countries such as Germany and France want to increase military aid, but Hungary always jumps out to block it on the grounds that the aid is unfair. Zelensky sent people to Berlin to lobby, and the EU's second payment of 2 billion euros was supposed to arrive in the spring, but it is still hanging. The European Peace Fund allocated funds for Ukraine, but Hungary caused trouble, weapons supplies were detoured, and logistics convoys lined up at the border.
This is not just a matter of money, the internal breaches of Europe are big. Hungary held a referendum in June against Ukraine’s accession to the European Union, Orban borrowed the threat, aid scale reduction and reduction. EU leaders met in March, hurried through a new fund pool, bypassing Hungary to Ukraine to deliver weapons, can actually slow swallow. Ukrainian diplomats in Brussels run off their legs, file a petition, mark the delay terms, but Hungary’s behalf a speech, about the whole mess. It is said, European countries themselves are empty, aid to Ukraine at the same time, have to replenish their own inventory. The German prime minister said to increase defense spending, where can it be spent?
The energy war is even more powder-smelling. In 2025, the two sides will fight each other for energy facilities. Ukrainian drones will attack Russian oil depots, and Russia will respond to power stations. In August, Ukrainian drones attacked more than 10 energy points in Russia, fireballs of refineries in Bashkortostan soared into the sky, and oil exports decreased. Russia's fuel crisis widens, and sources say they almost cut oil production. Ukrainian intelligence shows that the attack cost Russian energy at least 60 billion rubles. But Russia did not show weakness. In September, its drone offensive escalated, launching 34,000 aircraft throughout the year, and Ukraine's energy network was paralyzed. The power station in the Kharkiv region was bombed, many places across the country were cut off, and the maintenance team was overwhelmed. Ukraine fought back and attacked the Russian export terminal on September 18, breaking the fuel supply chain. But Ukraine suffered even greater losses due to this mutual fight. Its local energy is already weak. Although Russia's oil and gas exports were hurt, the Asian market was at the bottom.
Zelensky’s statement, behind disappointment. U.S. aid from February 2025 began to shell, Trump said to negotiate priority and freeze arms supplies. Zelensky went to Washington Congress hearing, showing data, saying it had received 75 billion, and the remainder was dragged hundreds of billions. Republican lawmakers questioned, he could only bend his head on accounts. At the UN General Assembly, he reiterated the gap of $41.5 billion, but the U.S. representative noted low-headed notes, without much promise. At the European Summit, he sat there listening to Hungarian speeches, drawing lines recording differences. Aid volatility, making Ukraine passive, the frontline of Donetsk, soldiers in battle, continued.
Russia's resilience can be seen from military industry data. In July 2025, the defense budget is running at a high level, with factories welding steel plates and assembling drones. Intelligence said they turned to the new Shahed drone and went straight to the front after flight testing. Ukraine responded that a drone hit the Ufa oil depot on September 22, covering the sky with fire and smoke. Russian fire trucks can put out the fire with high-pressure water column, and the losses are controlled. In comparison, Ukraine's budget has increased significantly, but it lags behind overall. Zelensky inspected military factories, workers operated machine tools and stacked finished products, but output could not keep up with consumption.
The battle continued until September 2025, and the pattern was sticky. Ukraine relied shortly on the EU’s supplementary fund guard line, but Hungary was blocked and funding slowed. Russian drones continued, Ukraine countered the oil refining target balance. The conflict dragged to the end of the year, Zelensky had to balance diplomacy and domestic production, avoiding more passivity. In the end, Zelensky said the truth, is in the alarm clock, but the international aid chain is unstable, Ukraine is empty, Russia is okay, here is who wins and who loses, at first glance.