During China's National Day, a big event happened in the Middle East: Hamas announced that it would not fight.
According to Xinhua Agency, on the evening of October 3 local time, the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) issued a statement saying that after discussions and consultations with relevant Palestinian factions and relevant international parties, it had submitted a formal response to the "20-point plan" proposed by US President Trump to end the Gaza conflict.
The statement said that Hamas agreed in principle to release all Israeli detainees and remains within the exchange framework of the "20-point plan" and was willing to immediately negotiate through mediators to implement the relevant plans.
The statement said Hamas agreed to hand over the management of Gaza to a Palestinian institution of independent technocrats that should be based on national consensus and supported by Arab and Islamic countries.
The Israeli Prime Minister's Office issued a statement in the early morning of the 4th local time, saying that after Hamas responded, Israel was prepared to immediately launch the first phase of the "20-point plan" for Gaza proposed by US President Trump, which is to release all detainees.
Will Gaza, which has been devastated by artillery since October 7, 2023, and more than 2 million Palestinians see the dawn of peace this time?
The positive factors of the "20-point plan" cannot conceal long-term risks
The “20-point plan” was announced by Trump on September 29 after a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu in the White House.
On October 3, Trump posted on social media that Hamas must agree to the "20-point plan" to end the Gaza conflict and rebuild Gaza before 18:00 EST on the 5th (6:00 Beijing time on the 6th), otherwise it will face "hell."
That is to say, the “20-point plan” is actually a plan that the U.S. has reached a certain consensus before it requires Hamas to accept.
According to the text released by the White House, the plan covers aspects such as the post-war vision for the Gaza Strip, a ceasefire, Israeli withdrawal, and the disposal of Hamas members.
The main contents include: Gaza becoming a de-extremized, non-threatened region, establishing a special economic zone in Gaza, Hamas returning all hostages and dead hostages within 72 hours, Israel releasing 250 lifetime prisoners and 1,700 detained Gazans immediately after the agreement comes into force, Gaza suspending the non-political Palestinian Commission's transitional governance, Hamas not participating in the governance of Gaza, Hamas members who disarm will be granted pardon, no one will be forced to leave Gaza, the U.S.-Arab and international partners established international stability forces deployed in Gaza, the Israeli army gradually withdraw from the Gaza security guard line, etc.
Objectively speaking, if this plan takes effect, it will help alleviate the humanitarian disaster in the Gaza Strip and curb the realization of Israel's attempt to completely occupy Gaza City in the short term. However, in the long run, no clear timetable has been given for the Israeli army to withdraw from Gaza, which blurs the concept of Palestinian sovereignty in the Gaza Strip, and thus limits the living space of Palestinians and the possibility of implementing "Palestinian people governing Palestinian people".
Hamas responded by trading time for breathing space
At present, the entire Palestinian territory has been cut down by Israel into at least 165 flats.The Palestinian mainly concentrated areas are only two, one in the Gaza area previously controlled by Hamas and the other in the so-called A and B areas of the West Bank controlled by the Palestinian Authority (formerly the Palestinian Authority), which are less than 40% of the West Bank.
If Hamas no longer participates in the governance of the Gaza Strip under Trump’s “20 Points Plan,” Hamas will lose its power base.
On the one hand, Hamas has indeed suffered heavy losses since the outbreak of this round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict. According to data released by Israel in August, since October 7, 2023, the Israeli army has killed more than 22,000 Palestinian militants in Gaza. Although this data is difficult to confirm or falsify, it is an indisputable fact that Hamas leaders Mohammed Sinwar, Izzedin Haddad and most military commanders were killed.
In addition, due to the huge loss of materials, Hamas is in urgent need of external funds. This cannot be obtained on the battlefield, and opportunities can only be won through negotiation. Therefore, in its response, Hamas emphasized the need to seek "more negotiations", which is more like a flexible means to exchange time for breathing space.
Hamas, on the other hand, stressed in the statement that other issues concerning the future of Gaza and the broader rights of the Palestinian people would be addressed within the framework of the Palestinian nation’s self-determination, in accordance with international law and relevant international resolutions.
This means that Hamas does not agree that Gaza will become an international enclave or a "special economic zone" with vague sovereignty, and still hopes to maintain its survival soil through future negotiations.
Peace is still far away
On the face of it, Trump's ultimatum "20-point plan" and Hamas's positive response seem to bring an opportunity for peace in the Gaza Strip. But historical facts have proved that on the Palestinian issue, peace agreements are often fragile.
The Camp David Agreement signed by Egypt and Israel in the United States in 1978 was the first peace agreement signed between an Arab country and Israel. The agreement clearly recognizes the legitimate rights of Palestinians. But two years since the outbreak of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the Israeli army's continued attacks on the Gaza Strip have shown that the agreement is not binding.
The Oslo Accords signed by Israel and the PLO in 1993 required the Israeli army to withdraw its troops from the West Bank and the PLO to renounce violence. Since then, the PLO has changed to the Palestinian National Authority and its stance has become moderate. Israel has still occupied 61% of the West Bank and continues to establish settlements.
After 2020, Trump and Biden have also proposed the U.S. version of the "two-country plan", but they are indifferent to Israel's unilateral closure of the United Nations Near East Palestinian Refugee Relief and Engineering Office, Israeli military massacre of Gaza civilians, establishment of settlements on the West Bank and other violations of international law.
In fact, the "20-point plan" proposed by Trump this time is very different from the "21-point plan" proposed previously. Therefore, it is not difficult to understand that although Arab countries welcome the "20-point plan", they are not without doubts.
Failure to adhere to the historical records of the agreement, opportunistic peace plans, and the generation-over-generation legacy of hatred all determine that the “20-point plan” may bring about a brief ceasefire, but may not be the foundation for peace in Gaza.
The dawn is still below the horizon.
Written by / Xu Liwan (column writer)