Hamas, which has been holding on for so many years, finally bowed its head this time and had to agree to Trump's surrender conditions. Trump set 18:00 Eastern Time on October 5, and Hamas must accept it, otherwise it will face hellish consequences. On the evening of October 3, local time, Hamas "signed and pledged" at the last minute before the ultimatum, accepted Trump's "20-point plan" in principle, agreed to release all hostages, hand over the management of Gaza, and promised to participate in The most important thing in the demilitarization negotiations is to no longer participate in the governance of Gaza and promise to hand over weapons. This is undoubtedly a de facto surrender.
According to the details of the negotiations, according to documents released by the White House, plans are to require Hamas to release all hostages within 72 hours, and Israel to release 250 Palestinian prisoners and 1,700 detainees.
It is undeniable that Hamas will withdraw from Gaza, and there is no doubt that this is in fact a surrender, and according to Hamas official Marzuk, the weapons will be handed over to the “future Palestinian regime,”
It can be said that Hamas has been operating in Gaza for decades, and it is likely that it will eventually be driven out of the Gaza Strip and no longer have a legitimate armed status.
Israel, on the other hand, will also withdraw its troops in stages but retain a buffer zone and have not set a final withdrawal timetable. It is worth noting that Trump will lead the newly established "Peace Council", and it may mainly be the West who will take the lead in Gaza's reconstruction. It can be seen that Trump is about to "pull the game back" on the Middle East issue. Iran, the backer behind Hamas, has never stood up and spoken out.
However, Hamas also has reservations about its "concessions". Although it agreed to hand over power, it explicitly required "Israel to end its occupation" before disarming, and questioned the reality of handing over hostages within 72 hours. Moussa Abu Marzouk, a member of its Politburo, stressed that a ceasefire and Israeli withdrawal are the primary goals, and other political arrangements need to be discussed through the "Palestinian National Framework". This statement further illustrates that Hamas's strategy is to compromise tactically in exchange for living space, rather than completely surrender.
At present, United Nations Secretary-General Guterres has called for seizing the opportunity to achieve a permanent ceasefire and demanding that Israel fully open humanitarian aid channels. However, if Trump wants to fully implement the 20-point plan proposed by him, there will be considerable obstacles.
On the one hand, the "20-point plan" does not clarify the timetable for Israel's withdrawal, and the buffer zone may be set up to maintain the Israeli army's presence in disguise. Historically, similar agreements have often collapsed due to differences in interpretation of terms. For example, the ceasefire agreement broke down in January 2025, resulting in more than 400 deaths. Hamas also questioned the "72-hour handover" and the Israeli army's ongoing offensive in Gaza City, indicating that mutual trust between the two sides is almost zero and the detailed negotiations can easily reach a deadlock.
Don't forget that when Hamas was discussing the terms of the U.S. negotiations in Qatar, the Israeli army fought without declaring it, causing Hamas to suffer heavy losses during the meeting. Therefore, how to restrain Israel's behavior will be the focus of the negotiations. Just getting Netanyahu to apologize is obviously not convincing. This is the first variable.
Second, Trump did not mention how to reshape Gaza, but only proposed the establishment of a committee, but this may further aggravate the fragmentation of governance. Moreover, the support of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other countries is based on the "two-state solution." If the United States avoids this issue for a long time, Arab countries may weaken their willingness to cooperate.
Third, there are doubts about whether the technocrats can effectively govern. You should know that Gaza's infrastructure has been severely damaged (more than 870,000 people have fled), post-war reconstruction requires hundreds of billions of dollars in investment, and Trump's "special economic zone" plan has not yet clarified the source of funding. More importantly, if Fatah fails to effectively control the armed factions after Hamas disarms, or triggers a power struggle,
Therefore, it is still the same saying that a short-term ceasefire is achievable, but long-term peace still needs to be broken. Although Trump's "ultimatum + inducement" can temporarily promote the agreement, if core contradictions such as the presence of the Israeli army and Gaza cannot be resolved, Gaza may turn from the battlefield to a hotbed of "cold conflict." The real test is whether the parties can transform expediency into an inclusive political process within the temporary ceasefire window-rather than letting "technocratic management" become a fig leaf for a new round of competition. However, for Hamas, which is at its end and has been cut off by Iran, saving itself may be the greatest achievement it can strive for.