This time, Russia obviously didn’t want to wait anymore.
At the beginning of September, the leaders of the three countries of China and Mongolia agreed to a memorandum of cooperation on the "Siberian Force 2" gas pipeline, which looks like a diplomatic ceremony, but for Russia, it is finally the eye of the heart that has been breathing for several years.
Not long after, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak personally rushed to Beijing and made it clear that before the end of the year, Russia would make every effort to supply gas to China. The word "full strength" is not a formality, but a real release of pressure.
On the one hand, the president personally, and on the other hand, the vice prime minister personally assured that this arrangement is not common in Russian diplomatic movements. Why is it suddenly frequent? In the end, it is because Russia really has reached a point where it must be quickly shifted. In the past, the energy strategy that relied on the European market, has gone.
The European market changes its face, and Russia puts its hopes on the East
In recent years, the direction of Russia's energy exports has undergone fundamental changes. In the past, the most profitable customer was Europe, where pipelines were built densely and business was booming. But since the outbreak of the Ukraine issue, Western countries have successively attacked Russia, with sanctions wave after wave. The most direct consequence is that it is becoming increasingly difficult to sell Russian natural gas in Europe.
To put it bluntly, the "west gate" has been almost closed, and Russia can only look east. On the other hand, China happens to be a big market that is stable, affordable and emphasizes cooperation. Therefore, while Russia is accelerating the transmission of gas from existing pipelines, it is investing more resources and energy into new projects, with the purpose of opening up this "lifeline of the Orient" as soon as possible.
Now the most mature between China and Russia is the "Siberian Force 1" pipeline. This line has gone well over the years, and has become not only the main force of Russian energy exports, but also an important channel for China's stable imports.
Looking further down, the demand for natural gas in China is still very high, but what is more important is the safety and long-term nature of gas supply. Compared with liquefied natural gas, which needs to be shipped by sea and whose price fluctuates greatly, Russia's pipeline transportation method is more stable and has less risks. Russia can sell, but China is willing to buy. This complementary relationship has become a strategic tacit understanding.
Therefore, Russia's turn is not a temporary intention, but an inevitable choice step by step to reach today. But now, time is getting tighter and tighter, and Russia must speed up its actions, otherwise it may not be able to hold on before this Eastern Corridor is repaired.
Russia's "all-out" is not just a statement
To say that Russia's "all-out efforts" this time is empty talk, it is to underestimate its speed of action.
One is already running "Siberian Force 1", now not only full load operation, but also expansion. This line supports the basic disc of Russian exports to China, belonging to the class of steady pursuit, first preserve existing income, but also leave space for the back layout.
The other is the Eastern line, also called the Far Eastern pipeline. Although the line is small, its role is to add points, divert streams, and connect the gas sources of the Russian Far Eastern region. This not only reduces the dependence on a single pipeline, but also a more export direction, can deal with emergencies. More importantly, this line also led to the development of the Russian Far Eastern region, as well as an add-on to domestic affairs.
The most important thing is the "Power of Siberia 2". This line is still in the negotiation stage, and there is no technical problem. The difficulties are mainly stuck in several old problems that cannot be avoided: how to set the price, how to lay the pipeline, and how to arrange the cost in the countries it passes through. If these things are not solved, the project will not advance fast.
But in any case, Russia has taken this line as the core project of the energy strategy for the next decade to China.Putin personally came up, not to do the way, but to know that once this line is built, Russia can completely throw off the shadow of the European market and completely shift the export focus to China.
From the overall layout, Russia's idea is very clear: now it relies on Pipeline 1 to collect money, Far East Pipeline to support it, and Pipeline 2 to make long-term investment. The three lines go together, first stabilize the present, and then bet on the future.
This is not a simple business operation, but a national strategic adjustment. For Russia, this is not a question of "whether you want to or not", but a question of "whether you can survive".
Why didn’t Putin wait this time?
Putin’s current situation is much more tense than the outside world imagines.
The first is the international environment. The U.S. side has not seen a noticeable relief in its attitude toward Russia, whether it changes orins the status quo. Europe's energy dependence on Russia has declined dramatically, and it is no longer realistic to rely on the markets. In this context, if Russia can not find stable large customers in the East as soon as possible, the next fiscal pressure will only increase.
The second is the domestic economy. Energy exports are almost the pillar of Russian finance, and if natural gas is not sold out, government revenues will decrease dramatically. This is not a question of which one or two companies, but the whole country operates. If there is no stable export target, the Russian economy is like a car with a lack of oil, which can be extinguished at any time.
The question of the time to negotiate is Siberian Power 2 "from the very beginning to now, it has been discussed for several years. China-Russia is not uncompromising, but hoping to get the most suitable solution in price and conditions. But the longer this is, the more variables there are. Especially in the middle there are Mongolian countries to transit, the previous attitude is not positive, now finally loose, this opportunity once missed, may not be again.
Therefore, Putin is in a hurry to push it now, just to settle this pipeline while there are still chips, resources and room for dialogue. Once construction starts, Russia's energy export pattern to China will be completely formed. It will no longer be a short-term order, but a strategic binding of ten or twenty years.
Of course, Putin knows that this is not a sprint, but a marathon. But now, he also knows that if he doesn't run now and wants to catch up later, even the starting line may be occupied by others.
conclusion
From Putin’s statements to Novak’s promises, to the comprehensive advancement of Russia’s three energy channels to China, behind this series of actions is a country’s strategic self-rule under geographic pressure.
Russia does not suddenly want to do good to China, but reality forces it to turn. European markets have gone far, Western relations have not shown signs of easing, and the domestic economy needs to stabilize exports to transfuse blood.
"Go all out" is not a political slogan, but the actual need of Russia at this stage. Energy exports are the lifeblood, and the Chinese market is the lifesaving line. Putin must seize the initiative in this geopolitical game.
This eastern energy line is not only a channel for natural gas, but also the fulcrum of Russia's international layout in the next few decades. And Putin "can't sit still" now because he knows that the window of opportunity will not remain open all the time. If it is missed, it will not be a matter of price, but a matter of strategic life and death.
He can't be in a hurry, and he can't be any slower. This game of chess played by Russia has reached a stage where there is no turning back.