Today, the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan will elect a new president. Since the Liberal Democratic Party is the ruling party, the new president will automatically become the next prime minister of Japan. For more than a year, Japan has changed its appearance again. Behind it is not only a power reshuffle, but also a dark war that affects Sino-US relations and the pattern of East Asia.
The election was full of drama from the beginning. A total of five people participated in the competition, but it was these three people who really formed a three-pronged confrontation: Shinjiro Koizumi, son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi; Harajo Takichi, who is known for his tough line with China; and Lin Fangzheng, who is known as the "political firefighter."
According to the election rules of the Liberal Democratic Party, the first round of voting consists of 295 members of Congress and party members with equal weight (295 votes in total), totaling 590 votes. If no one is more than half, the top two will enter the decisive round.
Among the 342 votes in the final round, the votes of parliamentarians were absolutely dominant, and 47 local party departments only held 47 votes symbolically.
Historically, the Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election has seen "second place reversal" three times: in 1956, Ishibashiro Zhanshan reversed Nobusuke Kishi (Shinzo Abe's grandfather), in 2012, Shinzo Abe overtook Shigeru Ishiba, and in 2024, Shigeru Ishiba defeated Takashi Saami in the final round. Will history repeat itself today?
The latest polls showed that Xiao Jinglong was leading in parliamentary votes, expected to get about 80 votes; high-market early mice and lint are getting more than 50 votes each; the other two candidates, Xiao Lin Eagle and Momoi sensitive only about 30 votes.
Japan's TBS analysis believes that the ones most likely to enter the decisive round are Koizumi and Takashi. However, Lin Fangzheng has gained rapid momentum recently and cannot rule out becoming a dark horse. In the decisive round, parliamentary votes are the king's way-hidden here is the most real power calculation within the Liberal Democratic Party.
At the moment, although most of the self-government factions have dissolved, the coalition in the dark is even more intense. At the moment, four former prime ministers within the party—85-year-old Mahatma Gandhi, 76-year-old菅义伟, 68-year-old岸田文雄 and 68-year-old石破茂—are playing the role of the “creator of the king.”
The Aso faction is the only faction that has not been dissolved, controlling 43 parliamentary votes. Last year, they failed to bet on early seedlings in the high market, and this year they are particularly cautious. Japanese media analyzed that if Koizumi confronts Takashi, the Aso faction may favor Koizumi; but if Lin Fang breaks through, the variables will increase greatly.
Although Suga Yoshihide has no faction, he has a huge influence among non-faction lawmakers. He supported Koizumi last year and still supports him this year.
The old shore-to-shore forces of shore-to-shore people secretly supported Lin Feng-Jing—Lin served as chief of office in the royal cabinet of Sharp, and was seen as the successor of shore-to-shore.
The most interesting of all is the rock broke. His rock broke party, though small, could be a key block. Of the five candidates, both Lin Feng and Xiaoping pledged to continue the "rock broke route". Once any of them entered the wheel of victory with the high market, the support of the rock broke will be crucial.
In this election, the most concerned by Chinese netizens was high-market early morning. she called the extreme anti-Chinese speech: denying the Nanjing massacre, shouting "Taiwan has something to do with Japan", advocating the reform of the constitution to change the Self-Defense Army into the National Defense Army, frequently visiting the Yaman Temple ...
The latest trends show, Takaichi sanae is already "changing his face".When asked whether Yu would continue to visit the Yasukuni Shrine if elected Prime Minister, she changed her previous arrogance and cautiously said that "appropriate judgment will be made as appropriate and it must not become a diplomatic issue."
Why change the attitude? 3 reasons:
First, parliamentarians can talk badly, and the prime minister must be responsible. The extreme speech of Japanese parliamentarians is often for the sake of political capital, and once they become prime ministers, the speech represents the position of the country. Referring to U.S. Secretary of State Rubio, from anti-Chinese parliamentarians to secretaries of state, they have to become pragmatic.
Second, Japan's diplomacy must look at the face of the United States. Former Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama once admitted: "It was only after I became prime minister that important bills were decided by the Japan-US Joint Committee." Although the Trump administration is currently tough on China, it attaches more importance to stabilizing Sino-US relations. During the phone call between the heads of state of China and the United States in September, Trump made it clear that he hoped to maintain "long-term, good and great relations" with China. The United States will not allow Japan to undermine the overall situation.
Third, Japan's economy is simply inseparable from China. According to Japan's 2024 edition of the "Trade White Paper", among the approximately 4,300 kinds of commodities, more than half of the imports of 1,406 categories come from China. More than 90% of mechanical and electrical products such as laptops and washing machines are imported from China. Japan exports more than 2 million cars to China every year, accounting for 60% of its total exports. If takaichi sanae really pursues extreme anti-China policies, the Japanese economy will not "stagnate for 30 years" but "go backwards for 30 years".
In contrast, Koizumi Shinjiro advocates consolidating the Japan-US alliance and places more emphasis on economic security; Lin Fangzheng was the president of the Japan-China Friendship Parliamentarians' Union, and his attitude towards China was the most pragmatic. In terms of security, Lin Fangzheng proposed that defense expenditure should account for 2% of GDP by 2027; Koizumi advocates steady progress; Takashi advocates the introduction of the latest weapons and the enhancement of long-range strike capabilities.
Whoever wins today will inherit a mess.
First, the self-government party failed to a majority in both houses of Congress, the first "double minority" situation in history.
Secondly, the pressure on the economy and people's livelihood is enormous. Some Japanese people bluntly said: "Wages don't rise, and life is getting harder and harder. None of the candidates reflect on the status quo, but they constantly emphasize external threats, which is disappointing."
In addition, the image of the Liberal Democratic Party has been discredited by the "black gold scandal", and the new president must use practical policies to restore the hearts of the people. However, the Japanese government's debt ratio is high, and excessive stimulus will aggravate fiscal risks. How to find a balance between people's livelihood and finance will test the wisdom of leadership.
Behind this election is the grand pattern of the Sino-American game. Japan wants to meet between the two strong forces, but finds itself increasingly self-confident.
For China, no matter who is elected, the core bottom line will not change.
This afternoon, the new Japanese prime minister will be revealed, but no matter what the outcome is, one thing is certain: In today's world, any Japanese leader must recognize the reality: less practising and more pragmatic is the real responsibility for the national interests.
"Taiwan has a thing is Japan has a thing" such a crazy saying, not to say for good, so as not to laugh.
After all, there will always be only one truth in international politics: strength is king.