On the complex chessboard of Sino-US relations, Trump has recently taken another familiar path. The U.S. president made a public statement that he wanted to meet with China at the end of the month, focusing on one thing-U.S. soybeans. He had not concealed it before and directly shouted, hoping that China would "bend the rules" and buy more American agricultural products.
It sounded like a diplomatic invitation, but in fact was more like a “political amplifier” that he spit on his domestic peasants.
But the question is whether this meeting in the mouth of Trump has actually landed, and the Chinese side has not spoken at the moment. Trump himself shouted loudly, but the Chinese attitude has always been cool. The temperamental difference between the two sides, in fact, hides a deeper interest game.
The United States is anxious, and soybeans have become a "life-saving straw"
U.S. soybeans have been at the forefront in recent years, but this year the situation is particularly tense. From farmers to the government, everyone has a hard time. American soybean farmers are already heavily dependent on exports, especially the Chinese market.
However, in the past two years, the friction between China and the United States has been constant, and China's purchase volume has continued to decline. Farmers panic when they see that the warehouse is full of unsold beans.
Trump certainly knows what the problem is. When he fought a trade war, he used soybeans as bargaining chips to put pressure on China. Now I want to play the emotional card, to put it bluntly, because American farmers can't hold on anymore.
These peasants were his Iron Belt supporters, and once they overthrew, they had little impact on his future midterm elections.
At the moment, he is eager to let China "leash", essentially to help farmers to find a way, and also want to stabilize the basic plate for themselves. This "export-transfer domestic sales" operation is not unusual. he is not really looking forward to a reciprocal diplomatic negotiation, but hopes to create a gesture of "I am working for you" by screaming.
He can scream loudly, but screaming loudly does not mean screaming.
China is stable and has long been prepared
Compared with the anxiety of the United States, China's attitude has always kept a low profile. In the face of Trump's "invitation to meet" and soybean topic, China has no official confirmation at present. This kind of silence is actually a gesture and a signal.
China's dependence on American soybeans has been actively adjusted as early as a few years ago. In the past, I did buy more, but it is precisely because I bought more that diversified supply channels are needed to ensure stability.
Over the years, China has accelerated the pace of purchasing soybeans from other countries, South America becoming the main alternative source.
Moreover, soybeans are, in the final analysis, an alternative commodity for China. Whether to buy the United States or not is more a market choice than a political charity. As long as there are other ways, the price is right and the quality is stable, there is absolutely no need for China to change its purchasing direction in order to appease anyone.
From a strategic point of view, China is also clear that agricultural procurement cannot be treated as a “good” tool. Especially in the context of current tensions between China and the United States, any unilateral concessions may be misrepresented as weak.
Under the game, soybeans are just an expression.
On the surface, Trump is only talking about soybeans this time, but in fact, what is behind this is an entire set of economic interests between the US and China. Soybeans are just a cut, and deeper is the corner power of the two sides on broader trade issues.
Trump wants to open a breakthrough through soybeans and try to get China to “release” on other issues, but China won’t easily overcome it. Buying soybeans doesn’t equal concessions, nor can it become a prerequisite for solving other problems. China’s idea is that everything has to be put in the big picture. If you want to talk about soybeans, then you have to put tariffs, technological restrictions, and investment barriers together on the table.
Moreover, this kind of game between big powers has never been something that can be solved by just one meeting. Trump's current propaganda seems urgent, but it also exposes the passivity of the US in this game. He doesn't have many chips in his hand, and on China's side, the preparations have already been done very solid.
Interestingly, China is not in a hurry to respond now. This strategy of "static braking" is actually an effective way to deal with Trump's high-profile statements. You call yours, I'll go mine, and it's the real initiative not to be disrupted by the rhythm.
How the end will depend on who can handle it
This contest around soybeans is actually an endurance race. On the one hand, the United States is anxious to untie the trap, and on the other hand, China is playing steadily. It seems to be an agricultural product procurement problem, but it is actually a confrontation between the economic strategic will of the two countries.
Trump can continue to shout, but if he shouts too much, the effect will be discounted. If he cannot make substantial concessions on larger issues, China has no reason to cooperate with him. What's more, China has emphasized many times that cooperation must be based on equality and mutual benefit, and it is impossible to change its own pace because of domestic pressure from one party.
If this negotiation really happens, the pace will not be fast. China will not disrupt its long-term layout for short-term interests, nor will it change its strategic judgment just because of an "emotional diplomacy". To solve the soybean problem, there must be an overall premise of dialogue, rather than being promoted by shouting.
Therefore, it may not be so easy for Trump to "accommodate" China. What China needs to look at is not the orders in recent months, but the fairness and sustainability of the entire trade pattern.
conclusion
The wave of Trump's operation, which seems to be a voice for farmers, is actually a way for himself. Soybeans became the code in his hands, and also his export against domestic pressure. But in China, the rules of the game have long changed. Not who cries loud, can get the desired results, but who is ready enough, who sits on the bench.
It is hard to say whether the meeting at the end of the month will be successful, but even if it does, it will not be easy. This is not a simple procurement negotiation, but a game involving a wide range of interests. At this table, the competition is patience, determination, and the grasp of long-term interests. China will not sacrifice its overall strategy for short-term compromise. Whether Trump can wait for the "accommodation" he wants depends on whether he is willing to show enough sincerity.