Preliminary
On September 29, a routine, seemingly simple press conference in Washington was rare. NetanyahuA low-headed picture in front of global media journalists.
This hard, soft and hard politician, who is never easy to take, is hard under Trump’s gaze. Squeeze out the word "apologize"Officially apologize for the Israeli air strike in Qatar.
Why did Netanyahu apologize to Trump and what was the purpose behind this concession?
Netanyahu is ‘broken’
There was no loud rhetoric, no one knocked on the table, but that kind of An intimidating auraTrump stood in front of the speaker, staring at Netanyahu, who looked like he was saying: You know what to say。"
Netanyahu faced the global media, first down his head for a few seconds, then raised his hand slightly touched his forehead, and finally hesitated to speak," he said. regret"The words were so twisted that it could be seen from his tense facial expressions.
In Israel, a political context that never easily admits mistakes, this is already Very rare low profileAfter saying this, Netanyahu clearly relaxed.
Trump immediately took the microphone, stressing that Israel had expressed "deep regret", implying that he had promoted a diplomatic solution behind his scenes. This approach may seem rude, but for the United States, It is a means of lowest cost in exchange for maximum comfort。
The White House quickly released news after the meeting, both to let Middle Eastern allies see the United States in charge, but also to maintain a special relationship with Israel unchanged. America's hold on the Middle East is weakening day by day。
The Allies, one by one, started a different furnace and no longer put all hope on Washington.This time, Qatar was pulled into a phone conference by the United States because it was in the Middle East. increasingly heavy。
The U.S. must give a deal, otherwise not only will Qatar be separated, and other countries will not buy the debt. Trump, of course, does not want to let things out of control, so he chose to "treat" Netanyahu in the most direct way.
Without a diplomatic decree, without an excuse, with just a glance, with a conference, Israel has been put down in front of the camera. This is a naked display of power。
The three shrewd calculations behind an "apology"
Despite the words “sorry,” Netanyahu’s state as a whole is revealing a signal: It wasn't voluntary, it was forcedHis expression in front of the camera was rigid, his eyes flashed, his tone was heavy when he spoke, as if he was reluctant to press a stomach.
Not surprisingly, Netanyahu’s rule is based in Israel. far-right camp。They have always advocated a tough line and believed that they should not show weakness to the outside world. This public apology suddenly poked their backs.
If it is not handled properly, the backbone of right-wing supporters may directly affect the situation. government's stabilizationBut why is Netanyahu willing to take that risk?
In the new round of the "peace plan" proposed by the United States, Very attractive and beneficial to Israel。 This forms a very delicate situation: apologizing verbally is in exchange for greater benefits. The ugly face is to explain to the country.
How to maintain relations with the United States while not losing support from the right-wing camp. This is a politically intelligent calculation.。 What about the Qatar side? Although dissatisfied with Israel's behavior, the reality is skinny.
As a small country, Qatar has both military and geopolitical advantages Highly dependent on the United StatesUnder the mediation of the United States, it can only accept this "surface article", not dare too hard. after all, it is really to tear the face, its security and diplomatic space will face great pressure.
For the United States, this pressure is more of an apology. Maintain your own mediator role.The Middle East nation’s confidence in the United States has long been different than it was before, and this time again it has been mildly misled by military bombing, making it clear its bottom line in the face of Israel.
These countries, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have long since begun to shift their eyes and have more frequent contacts with countries such as China and Russia. U.S. umbrellas are no longer the only option。
America’s “leader” position is relaxing.
Starting with this "look diplomacy", the three sides have worked hard to maintain a situation that seems decent. This is just a temporary ceasefire.None of the fundamental problems have been solved.
The Middle East policy of the United States is more and more like disposing bombs. As soon as one bomb is held down, another pops up again. It wants to maintain a special relationship with Israel without completely offending the rest of the Middle East, so when dealing with the problem Often take care of one thing and lose sight of the other。
Just the same week that the apology occurred, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed a joint defense agreement that clearly stated that “any attack on one side will be treated as an attack on both sides.”
This shows that Saudi Arabia's confidence in the U.S. security commitment is gradually weakening and it is actively seeking Diversified security partners。 The signing time of this agreement happened just after the Israeli air strike on Qatar, and the timing is intriguing.
For the United States, if countries such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar gradually lose confidence in U.S. security mechanisms, it will be directly impacted. U.S. strategic presence in the Middle East。
Therefore, the United States must respond quickly in such emergencies and pressure Israel to apologize in order to prevent further cracks in its allies. But this approach treats the symptoms rather than the root cause, The confidence crisis is only getting worse.。
Israel is caught in a double attack of strategy and politics. On the one hand, it wants to expand its control in Gaza, and on the other hand, it wants to maintain domestic political stability. It is in a dilemma.
Netanyahu’s ability to withstand pressure from the far right will also directly affect the situation. The future policy of Israel。 Although Qatar has temporarily calmed the crisis, this state of diplomatic dependence is always a hidden danger.
Once the United States fails to provide sufficient support at a critical moment, it may fall into greater isolation. From a larger perspective, this apology reflects the loosening of the traditional Middle East order.
The US-led regional balance is facing. Unprecedented challengesThis change is not formed a day or two, but as a result of years of contradictions accumulated. Real changes are still brewing。
The Middle East has just begun.
This embarrassing apology is more of a diplomatic "temporary repair" than a real reconciliation. The problems in this land of the Middle East, A few words of regret cannot be solved。
Netanyahu's low head, not because of reflection, but because of calculation. Trump's pressure, not anger, but strategy. Diplomatic Theatre。
But the audience can see clearly that the show is not a bit of a kindness, but more of a reality of relentlessness.The Middle East pattern is quietly loosening, and the confidence between traditional allies is constantly diluted.
America’s role is becoming more and more like a “weary judge,” not only to balance the scene, but also to worry about himself in the hearts of the audience. CredibilityIsrael and Qatar are just two roles in this multi-faceted game, each choosing for their own benefit.
From historical experience, similar diplomatic compromise often brings only short-term stability. Surface by Surface.。The core issues of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict still exist, and the humanitarian crisis in Gaza remains serious.
If Hamas does not accept the new plan proposed by the United States, this seemingly quiet game may soon evolve into A new conflict.The deeper problem is that this balance of reliance onining power is fragile in itself.
When the influence of the United States declines, when regional power rises, and when the traditional order is under attack, The new rules have not yet been establishedIn this case, any small friction could trigger a chain reaction. apologies just temporarily pressed the barrel, but Mars is still on the run.
For observers like China, this change is both a challenge and an opportunity. How to find your place in change, how to stay awake in chaos, How to defend your own interests in the gameIt requires wisdom and tactics.
A "sorry" is difficult to replace with true calm.Netanyahu's low head is just a small plot in this game of power. The storms in the Middle East are far from ending.。
conclusion
After this apology, the situation seemed to ease, but in fact it became more tense. The real trouble may have just begun. The pattern of the Middle East is undergoing profound changes, the traditional balance of power is being reshuffled, and a new order has not yet taken shape.
How long do you think this "apology by power" pattern can last?