In September, once the report "Global Power Structure Outlook 2025-2045" was released, the global political and economic circles were once again stirred up. The report is jointly produced by three think tanks, Brookings Institution, RAND Corporation and Center for International Strategic Studies, and its authority is beyond doubt.
By cross-analyzing more than 30 core indicators such as global economic aggregate, scientific and technological innovation potential, and geopolitical influence, the report predicts the list of the seven most influential countries in the world in the next 20 years.。 This list has not only familiar "old faces" but also many surprising emerging forces.
In August, the latest data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) showed that global economic growth has gradually recovered, but the trend of differentiation between the major powers is more evident. The struggles of countries in various fields such as technology, energy, manufacturing, finance, are determining the direction of the future international order.
A “global power race” in a multipolar era
In the third decade of the 21st century, the global unipolar pattern has gradually become history. The myth of "the dominance of the United States" in the past has been broken by technological revolution, geopolitical conflicts and the reshaping of the global industrial chain.The report of the Brookings Institute clearly pointed out that in the future the top seven will not have an absolute "hegemony", but will present a new order of multipolar competition and dynamic evolution.
Based on the global authoritative data in August, the report dynamically tracks the comprehensive national strength of various countries. The United States still leads in terms of GDP, technological innovation and military strength, but the catch-up speed of "chasing troops" China is astonishing. Countries and regions such as India, the European Union, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Russia have shown potential that cannot be underestimated in terms of demographic dividend, regional influence, and resource endowment.
According to IMF data, the top five global GDP in 2025 will be the United States, China, the European Union (for unified economic statistics), India and Japan.In a new round of industrial upgrading and international division of labor adjustment, “emerging market countries” collectively rise into an irreversible trend.
The main battlefield of new power competition
Scientific and technological innovation has become the "engine" that determines future national strength. Relying on innovation highlands such as Silicon Valley and Boston, the United States continues to dominate cutting-edge fields such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, biomedicine, and aerospace.
China has made breakthroughs in digital economy, green energy, and smart manufacturing. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics at the end of August showed that China's new energy vehicle production and sales, number of patent applications and total number of authorizations ranked first in the world.China's high-speed rail operations have reached 50,000 kilometers, becoming an important country for global technology exports.
The EU has accelerated the transformation through the “green new policy” and the “digital sovereignty strategy”, with key member states such as Germany, France and othersining leadership in the fields of new energy, industrial automation, aerospace, etc. German machinery manufacturing exports reached a new high, French Airbus took the world’s largest single aircraft order in August, showing the resilience of European manufacturing.
India relies on huge demographic dividends and continues to expand in areas such as software services, electronic manufacturing and medicine, making Bangalore, Mumbai and other places an important hub for global innovation networks.
The emerging economies such as Indonesia and Nigeria have accelerated the upgrading of industries with the strength of resources and demographic structures.Nigeria has made breakthroughs in the Internet economy and financial and technological fields in Africa, and Lagos’s funding of technology startups ranks first in Africa.
Strategic Depth and Regional Influence
The U.S. continues to maintain the world’s strongest military deployment and alliance network, the U.S. military presence in Asia-Pacific, Europe and the Middle East will continue to rise in 2025 and NATO and the Indo-Pacific security cooperation will continue to deepen.
Under the Belt and Road Initiative, China has actively deployed its infrastructure and trade networks in Asia and Africa, and in 2025 the total trade in countries along the Belt and Road will grow by 12.5 percent.China's naval modernization process is accelerating, its offshore combat capabilities and overseas base construction are gradually improving, and its regional influence is constantly increasing.
The European Union focused on regional stability and external threats, and in August the European Parliament passed the new "European Defence Integration" bill, prompting member states to jointly develop advanced weapons systems to strengthen border control and energy security.
Russia relies on nuclear arsenals and energy exports and still holds a significant position in the Eurasian geography.Russian gas exports rose by 6.3% in August, signing long-term cooperation agreements with several countries in Central and Western Asia.Although the economic structure is single and the population and innovation are under pressure, it is still a force that cannot be ignored on major international issues.
India has strengthened its "multilateral balance" strategy, actively participated in international platforms such as BRICS and SCO, and greatly enhanced its influence in South Asia and the Indian Ocean. In 2025, the trade friction between India and the United States will continue, and the Indian government announced that it will increase investment in manufacturing and high-end technology to avoid external risks.
List of “Powered” countries.
In September, the global economic landscape once again showed obvious differentiation. The total GDP of the United States reaches US$27.8 trillion, and the technology industry and financial services industry maintain global leadershipAlthough inflationary pressures have eased, the scale of government bonds has risen to $37 trillion, and social division and governance difficulties have not fundamentally improved.
China’s manufacturing and digital economy will be “double-wheel-driven” by 2025.High-tech industry exports have grown comparatively, and the internationalization of the RMB has progressed significantly.The country’s urbanization rate has reached 70%, the structural adjustment of the labor force and the pressure of population aging have increased simultaneously.
The EU's total economic output remains at the US$19.4 trillion range, and the three major economies of Germany, France and Italy have seen significant recovery momentum. Differences within the EU remain on issues such as immigration, finance and green transformation, but scientific innovation and industrial synergy capabilities continue to improve.
India's per capita GDP will increase to US $2,900 in 2025, and software, medicine and manufacturing outsourcing will become the "troika" of economic growth. Large-scale infrastructure investment drives employment, but the shortcomings of business environment and basic education still need to be broken through.The economic structure has become more diversified and the balance of payments has become more balanced.
Indonesia’s digital economy will merge with traditional manufacturing by 2025.The geographical advantage of the Strait of Malacca helps Indonesia to gain a higher share in the global energy and logistics chain.Foreign investment flows are high in innovation, but infrastructure and labor quality shortages still hinder long-term growth.
Nigeria's total economy has surpassed $700 billion, the population has surpassed 2,400 million. Africa's technology entrepreneurship boom, and the number of financial technology and mobile payment users ranks first in Africa.Oil revenue volatility, insufficient investment in basic education, and security tensions remain key factors constraining its upper floors.
Russia’s GDP remains at $1.7 trillion in 2025, and its international influence is supported by the energy and military industries. International sanctions pressures continue, technological innovation and population growth fall into a low valley. The Russian government has launched a new “Far East Development” plan, seeking to deepen cooperation with China, Central Asia and Western Asia to counter Western constraints.