On September 23, 2025, Trump suddenly changed his mouth during the United Nations General Assembly in support of Ukraine's recovery of lost land, including Crimea, and completely overturned the compromise strategy of land-to-peace in the early days of his rule, a statement that not only marked the shift of U.S. policy toward Russia, but also sparked the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has fallen into a strategic impasse.
Although the rumor that the Russian army has more than one million casualties is controversial, the characteristics of war of attrition on the battlefield are becoming increasingly obvious. Ukraine relies on external assistance to support it, while Russia is forced to adjust its strategy due to economic sanctions and military losses.
Trump's reversal of position is not only the result of hawkish lobbying within the Republican Party, but also stems from an assessment of Russia's decline in national strength, but it may further push the conflict into the abyss of perpetuation.
Millions of casualties on the battlefield.
In September 2025, the data of the Russian conflict battlefield and political expression intertwined a complex picture, the U.S. think tank statistics showed that the Russian military's cumulative casualties broke the million mark, and Trump suddenly changed his mouth during the United Nations Assembly in support of Ukraine's "recovery of all territory", a series of dynamics that will push the conflict to a more uncertain future.
From the artillery fire on the Donbas front line to the game in the international diplomatic arena, many factors point to one conclusion that this conflict is evolving into a "new normal war" in the 21st century.
As of September 25, 2025, battlefield data released by the Russian Ministry of Defense shows that the Ukrainian army has lost approximately 1,490 people on various fronts in the past 24 hours, including more than 530 casualties in the Central Theater Command in a single day.
The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine disclosed that the cumulative casualties of the Russian army since the outbreak of the conflict have reached 1.09 million. This figure cross-confirms the 950,000 casualties assessed by the British Ministry of Defense in May and the 128,000 killed list verified by Mediazona and the BBC.
The casualty rate of the Russian army changed significantly in the summer of 2025. From May to August, the Russian army seized 1,910 square kilometers of territory at the cost of about 33,000 people per month, with an average of 71 casualties per square kilometer, compared with 99 people/square kilometers at the beginning of the year. Square kilometers fell by 28%.
This shift stems from tactical innovations, with the Russian fiber optical drone strike radius extended from 7 kilometers to 20 kilometers, increasing the destruction efficiency of the Ukrainian air defense system by 40% through the three-stage attack of "electronic warfare suppression - artillery coverage - infantry advancement".
The Ukrainian army relied on the AI target recognition system provided by NATO to increase the success rate of drone interception from 38% to 62%, forming a consumption pattern of "using air to control air".
The loss of equipment is also striking, the Russian military has lost more than 10,000 tanks, 20,000 armoured vehicles and 30,000 sets of artillery systems, and after the sinking of the Black Sea fleet's flagship "Moscow", the total tonnage of the fleet decreased by 50,000 tons.
To make up for the depletion, Russia restarted Soviet-era stockpiles, introduced Witness-136 drones from Iran and obtained artillery supplies from North Korea.
Regarding the Ukrainian army, the casualty rate of the elite Azov Brigade exceeds 70%, and the entire brigade's strength is only one-third. Although the West promised to provide 5000 air defense missiles, the actual delivery volume is less than 30% of the promised.
Trump’s political turn.
On September 23, 2025, Trump's attitude suddenly changed after meeting with Zelensky during the United Nations General Assembly. He publicly declared that "Ukraine can recover all its territory with the support of the European Union" and threatened to impose high tariffs on Russia.
This statement is in sharp contrast to its commitment to a “24-hour ceasefire” in 2024, which is reflected in the calculations of U.S. domestic politics.
On the one hand, U.S. arms traders received huge orders through the Ukrainian aid bill, Lockheed Martin's F-16 production line is scheduled to 2027, and on the other hand, Trump needs to balance the contradictions between domestic "anti-war" and "pro-European", whose latest remarks are interpreted by European officials as "putting the way for a withdrawal strategy".
Zelensky, who has linked the conflict to his personal political destiny, has repeatedly said that he "will resign after the end of the conflict", but at the same time asked the United States to lift long-range weapons restrictions on Ukraine and strengthen the logic of attacking Russian mainland targets, which is to use the West's fear of "Russia's victory" to continue to rule the legitimacy.
The latest poll in Poland shows that 43% of the people support Uzbekistan's "territory for peace", but Zelensky still adheres to an "uncompromising" stance, reflecting his difficult balance between domestic anti-war sentiment and Western pressure.
At the same time, the Russian economy has shown unexpected resilience under sanctions. In 2025, Russia's military budget will reach US $102 billion, accounting for 6.8% of GDP. However, it will shift to Asia to maintain fiscal balance through energy exports.
From January to August, Russia's oil supply to China increased by 23% year-on-year, and the total arms sales contract to India exceeded US $15 billion.
Although data from the International Energy Agency showed that Russia's oil revenue fell to the lowest level in five years, the ruble exchange rate remained stable supported by military orders, and the inflation rate was controlled within 7% in 2025.
Ukraine, on the other hand, is plagued by a “war economy”, with 60% of its budget reliant on international aid, but the G7 agreed only to provide $50 billion in loans to freeze interest on Russian assets, and stipulated that the funds should not be used directly for military spending.
The chairman of the Ukrainian Budget Committee warned that the military spending gap may reach US $8.7 billion by the end of 2025, while the "unmet foreign aid needs" in 2026 will reach US $18.1 billion. This economic dependence makes Ukraine passive in negotiations, and European countries have begun to worry about "Take the blame for Ukraine's military failure."
The transformation of protracted war
Under the international development in recent years, drone warfare has become the symbol of the battlefield in 2025. The "mother-daughter" system deployed by the Russian army can control 20 suicide drones at the same time, while the Ukrainian army uses the AI provided by NATO. The system achieves an interception rate of 62%.
In the deep-sea field, the Russian military's "Poseidon" nuclear-powered unmanned submersible vehicle was deployed in the Barents Sea, targeting the North American coast; the Ukrainian army teamed up with the United Kingdom to test the "Neptune" anti-ship missile and sank a Russian landing ship.
At the space level, the Russian military's "Resources-P" reconnaissance satellite and the Ukrainian military's "Xichang" satellite had a close rendezvous, and both sides accused the other of "dangerous proximity."
In the field of electronic warfare, the Russian military's "Murmansk-BN" system can interfere with communications within a 500-kilometer radius, while the Ukrainian military relies on the star link system to maintain the chain of command. This technical confrontation has led to a decrease in the transparency of the battlefield, making it difficult for both sides to grasp the actual movements of the other side.
Analysis by American think tanks pointed out that the technological generation gap has shifted from "quantity suppression" to "quality game". The cost of a single attack has dropped from US $100,000 in 2022 to US $30,000 in 2025, but the defense cost is still as high as US $80,000.
Russia defines the conflict as a "Great Patriotic War". Putin expressed his "willingness to fight a century of war" at a closed-door meeting in March 2025. This narrative binds the gains and losses on the battlefield with the legitimacy of the regime.
The Russian army maintains 700,000 active troops through partial mobilization orders and plans to expand its army to 1.5 million by 2026. Ukraine links the image of "peaceful president" with the leadership of war. Zelensky's "resignation promise" is actually a chip to continue ruling.
On the international side, China has proposed a "stage-by-stage ceasefire" in the UN Security Council, advocating that the humanitarian corridors should first be implemented and territorial issues should be negotiated, but the US and Russia have not responded.
India, Brazil and other emerging countries have called for a “de-Westernization” of the peace process, and their proposed “BRICS mediation mechanism” has the support of 28 countries, a multi-polarization trend that has shifted conflict resolution mechanisms from “US-Russian bilateral” to “global coordination”, but it is still difficult to break the impasse in the short term.
At present, neither of the Russian and Ukrainian sides has shown a willingness to compromise, Medvedev’s prediction of the “decade-of-war” is in response to Zaru’s “2034 year-look” judgment, and will continue to cover the third decade of the 21st century until the international community has found an effective mechanism to break the impasse.
conclusion
While Trump’s policy shift injects short-term hope in Ukraine, it does not help to break the fundamental contradiction of the enduring war.
Russia's counterattack in Kursk and Ukraine's NATO illusions highlight the lack of willingness on both sides to compromise, while the strategic swing under the pressure of the United States mid-term elections is more likely to turn the conflict into a long-term consumption field for the game between major powers.
If it is not possible to rebuild the mechanism of dialogue, the war may become a 21st-century European version of the Verdon hanging machine, and the only winners may be arms traders and geospectors.
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The source:
"Putin: If Zelensky Wills to Meet, Come to Moscow"-China Report-
https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1842262595127838711&wfr=spider&for=pcLukashenko: If Zelensky does not stop, he will lose the whole of Ukraine.
https://sputniknews.cn/20250927/1067626047.htmlVideo: "The American think tank shows that the Russian military casualties will be over a million, the mortality rate is higher than the Second World War" — Orange News —
https://v.douyin.com/JKpob-0yDsA/