Faced with the growing dissatisfaction of soybean farmers, hardcore supporters in China, Trump began to build momentum, saying that he would focus on talking with China about buying American soybeans at the end of the month.
I am familiar with this story - like the very period of the year, chasing Wang Xia, shouting "girl, you listen to my explanation", as a result, people don't go back, only leaving him to feel himself in the dead well.
a
Let me make it clear,"meeting at the end of the month" is just Trump's stand-up comedy, and China has not even officially announced the itinerary.
He didn’t care about Trump, rushed up and baked himself on the fire: in four weeks, soybeans must be on the table!
The tone sounded like an ultimatum, but in fact it showed the trump card to the top-"My voters are going to die, please give me some face."
Unfortunately, soybeans are not Twitter, and screaming alone cannot solve the problem.
second
Trump said that China refused to buy US soybeans "only for negotiation purposes". This translation is:
“How can you take my stuff as a weapon?”
Brother, you were the one who started the tariff war.
In 2018, you slap your head and "increase taxes on 50 billion yuan of goods to China"; in 2019, you will make up another step and "start with 250 billion yuan"; in 2025, you will directly increase China's tariffs to 50%. China took the opportunity to stop buying American beans, which is reasonable and legal, and issued VIP tickets to Brazil and Argentina.
So, after this autumn harvest, China’s orders fell to zero – for the first time since 1999.
U.S. farmers openly watched the warehouse burst, and Trump had to shoot his head again: at the end of the month, I’m going to ask for them!
three
You have to ask for help, but Trump wants to cosplay a tough guy.
At the same time, they shouted, “We must continue to put pressure on China,” and said, “Soya will be my main topic.”
This operation is like a great quarrel between my master and the city manager:
"Let me tell you, I've set this stall for today!-unless you find me a step."
China does not take the ladder.
The General Administration of Customs has just released its report card: nearly 14 million tons of soybeans were imported in August, the second highest in history; 85% of them came from Brazil.
One word, the food has been stored, the long contract has been signed, the cost of shipping will be more expensive, and you will not buy anyway.
This is called "beans in the hand, not in the heart."
How long can your U.S. warehouses last? how many seasons can farmers borrow interest rates? how many rounds can Trump’s ballots turn empty?
Time is on this side of China, not in the Iowa cellar.
four
What's even more worrying is that China's "soybean card" is played too accurately.
American soybean farmers = Trump iron warehouse; Iron warehouse fire = smoke in the president's backyard.
So the White House hurried to jump, and Republican lawmakers in Congress wrote in turn, and the chairman of the Soybean Association swallowed out the mirror: “We’re on the verge of financial collapse!”—hearing like poverty alleviation ads.
Chinese netizens responded from a distance:
"If you collapse, you will collapse. Anyway, we don't eat melons, we only eat tofu."
5 is
Of course, international politics can’t just be seen as an outline.
The Chinese side also left a gap: it never said "never buy", but only said "act according to market rules".
Translated to adult language.
Cancel unreasonable tariffs on China, everything is easy to say;
If you want to continue holding the big stick of tariffs and ask me to save your votes, that is called "both want and want". There is everything in your dreams.
six
So, if you really meet at the end of the month, it is likely to be this scene:
Trump: Soya has to talk!
China: First, tear up the tariff list since 2018.
Trump: So how do I go back?
China: Brazil is still waiting to sign next year's long-term deal.
--The negotiation table is not Twitter, there is no "one-click victory" button.
Whoever consumes more energy, whoever can get the other party to eat the results they want in this "time" pressure axis.
seven
Finally, I borrow a word from the netizens:
"The most embarrassing thing in the river is that you just pulled out a four hundred meters long knife and found that someone was sitting on the high-speed rail."
Trump's soybean knife shines forty meters,
But China didn't look at it, sat on the "Brazil-China" high-speed railway, watched the scenery with a goose, and quickly moved away from this boring place.