Source: The Bowl
In the suffering Middle East, poor Gaza, I have a strong feeling that a major turning point is coming.
On October 3, three major events followed.
Europe in angry protests, unprecedented protests, protests against Israel’s killing of Gaza, and Italy is paralyzed as a whole.
2. Trump issued an ultimatum, saying that Hamas still has "one last chance" or will suffer "an unprecedented hellish blow."
Hamas said it agreed to "immediately" enter negotiations and release all hostages, alive or dead, according to Trump's proposal.
The first thing is not much to say.
In the two years of the war in Gaza, 70,000 people have been killed, most of them women and children.
What is hell on earth?
Gaza is hell on earth.
So, under the strong pressure of the people, Britain, France, Australia, Canada and other countries have recently sparked a wave of recognition of the State of Palestine.
500 volunteers from around the world drove more than 40 boats and carried emergency relief supplies to Gaza in an attempt to break through Israel's blockade. They were arrested by Israel, which aroused strong anger in Europe.
Israel is falling into unprecedented diplomatic isolation.
Of course, anger is important, but it is also the least useful.
Most importantly, the U.S. attitude.
Trump forced Netanyahu to apologize to Qatar, and then introduced 20 points to end the Gaza War.
He forced Hamas to accept, at the time of the ultimate ultimatum, at 6 a.m. on October 5 at 18 AM, Beijing time on October 6.
According to Trump, more than 25,000 Hamas soldiers have been killed, and most of the rest have been surrounded and in military trouble. As long as he issues an "order to action," their lives will be "quickly terminated."
He declared that if Hamas accepted,"we will achieve peace in the Middle East 3000 years later."
Please note the two numbers here.
The first number, 25,000 Hamas soldiers.
I don’t know how Trump calculated that, even if this number is true, there are 450,000 people killed, who are they?
They are the poor people of Gaza. History never lacks numbers, but it often forgets the vivid lives and broken families behind the numbers.
The second figure, peace after 3000 years.
Indeed, the Middle East is a land of tigers, a war after another, but Trump is ambitious and I will peace unprecedented for 3,000 years.
If the Nobel Peace Prize is not yet awarded to him, Trump is estimated to have imposed comprehensive sanctions on Norway.
But Trump’s 20 articles, for Hamas, are a difficult choice to step back.
Because it’s simple, many of these 20 articles break Hamas’s red line.
As I said earlier, there are 20 items in name, but the most critical items are roughly 5.
1. Hamas released all hostages, and Israel released some Palestinian prisoners held.
2. Hamas is completely disarmed. Members who lay down their arms will be pardoned, and those who wish to leave Gaza will be allowed to leave.
Gaza will be managed by a “peace committee” with Trump as chairman, and the management will also include former British Prime Minister Blair.
4. Gaza is completely demilitarized, Hamas is completely excluded, and the international community will help Gaza rebuild.
5. The United States, Jordan, Egypt and other countries will form an Interim International Stabilization Force (ISF), and the Israeli army will withdraw from Gaza in stages.
For Hamas, laying down arms, especially after making significant sacrifices, is like surrender.
The belief that underpins them is the establishment of an independent and free Palestinian state. However, the State of Palestine did not mention Trump's 20 articles, but handed Gaza over to a "peace committee." Trump was still under the leadership of Hamas. Hamas was completely excluded.
But not to accept, the organization has been destroyed, the people of Gaza will continue to suffer and be killed, and Trump will even more tolerate Netanyahu’s massacre.Hamas will also be placed in the moral opposite, depicted as a refusal to peace.
It should have been after careful weighing that Hamas made a preliminary response on October 3.
According to a statement from Hamas:
1. Hamas agreed to release all hostages to achieve a permanent ceasefire;
2. Hamas is ready to negotiate immediately to discuss specific details;
3. Hamas agreed to transfer the management of Gaza to a body composed of Palestinian independent/independent personages.
I see that Trump first posted a tweet saying, “I believe they are ready for lasting peace.”
He called on Israel to "stop the bombing of Gaza immediately so that we can evacuate the hostages safely and quickly!" It's too dangerous to do this now."
He added, "We are already discussing the details to be resolved. This is not only about Gaza, but also about the peace that the Middle East has long sought."
Trump is happy, this is what I’m waiting for.
Finally what do you think?
Three rough views.
First, the situation in the Middle East is facing a crucial opportunity.
The Israeli massacre continued, and on the same day on October 3, another 60 Palestinians werely killed.
A UNICEF spokesman lamented on the same day: "Bombs fell from the sky, which made people shudder. Schools designated as temporary shelters are often razed to the ground."
But the whole world knows that this bloody war is unsustainable.
Israel is falling into complete isolation, angry protests are surging in Europe, and Trump is facing unprecedented pressure. The Nobel Peace Prize he longed for would undoubtedly become a bubble if the war in Gaza continued.
Trump’s 20 articles are unfair and unfair to Hamas, but indeed an opportunity to end the war for Gaza.
Sometimes ceasefires arise not from the triumph of justice, but from suffering reaching the limit of endurance.
Of course, Trump’s ambition is greater, peace after 3,000 years.
I estimate that no Middle Eastern person dares to think this way, but Trump is Trump after all, and his dreams must always be, if they really come true.
Second, there are painful negotiations and compromises.
Hamas showed goodwill, but did not agree unconditionally with Trump, especially on the two key points, which were also the most difficult part of the next negotiations.
1. Whether Hamas laid down its arms.
2. Who will run Gaza?
Speaking of who will manage Gaza first, Trump doesn’t necessarily really want to be chairman of the Peace Committee, Hamas claims, coupled with Trump’s demands, could be a more feasible option.
Letting down the weapons is the most painful choice for Hamas.
It takes courage to lay down weapons, but it takes more wisdom than taking up weapons to know when to lay down them in order to survive and the future.
But putting down weapons means being completely marginalized and even seen as surrender by the hardeners, and even divisions within Hamas.
Hamas faces a critical decision as to where to go, and there is really not much time left for it.
For Israel, it is not necessary to really accept Hamas leaving.
Watching the report, after Hamas made a statement, Trump asked Israel to stop bombing Gaza, Netanyahu's first reaction was surprising.Hamas has rejected you, why do you still think Hamas is "ready to lasting peace"?
It's not ruled out that it's fighting harder.
Sorry, but I am more pessimistic.
Despite what has been said, a major turning point in the Middle East is coming.If peace is truly achieved, the killing of Gaza can finally end.
But can peace really be achieved?
Difficult, very difficult!
That is to say, if the Palestinians continue to live in humiliation and anger, their resistance will never be calmed down. even if Hamas is completely destroyed, it does not rule out the emergence of new Hamas, new resistance groups, new, more terrifying means of resistance.
If peace cannot be rooted in the soil of dignity and justice, it can only be reborn into the flames of violence in the ashes of hatred.
When I worked in Jerusalem at that time, I asked many Palestinian friends whether peace would be achieved, and the vast majority shrugged their heads, and peace would never be achieved.
We Chinese people often say, and for the expensive, casting swords for thorns, wrong report when.
But this wisdom of the Chinese will never be understood by some, just as we may not understand their suffering, humiliation, and anger, and strong religious connections.
I remember that when China proposed a "harmonious world", many friends in the Middle East didn't understand it. They said to me, how can this world be harmonious? We were born to fight and bleed...
In this ancient land, every generation seems destined to repeat the war of the previous generation, but longs for the next generation to enjoy its own peace.