Affected by the U.S. government's "shutdown", the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics once again delayed the release of its employment report after 12 years.
On October 3, local time, affected by the "shutdown" of the U.S. government, the U.S. non-farm payrolls data for September originally scheduled to be released at 8:30 am Eastern Time was not released as scheduled. This is after 2013, and the release of non-farm employment data has been delayed again because of the "shutdown" of the US government.
The “stop” comes from the Republican and Democratic failure to agree on the delay of the provisional spending bill. Reuters on 1 October that Congress will draft detailed spending bills annually for most federal agencies, but the bill is rarely completed before the start of the fiscal year on 1 October. Therefore, lawmakers will pass the provisional spending bill to avoid interruptions in government services within weeks or months before the formal bill is drawn up. The current provisional spending bill has expired on 30 September, but the U.S. two parties failed to agree on a new provisional allocation bill due to differences in health insurance.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the website has been suspended due to the suspension of federal government services.
The suspension of non-agricultural data release has sparked a wave in financial markets. Reuters reports that investors are closely watching labor market data and trying to find clues from it for the Fed’s path to lowering interest rates. Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay Toronto, said (the suspension of non-agricultural data release) will increase the risk of (market) overreaction.
However, this month's ADP data may provide investors with some clues to interest rate cuts. On October 1, local time, data released by the American Automatic Data Processing Corporation (ADP) showed that the U.S. private sector lost 32,000 jobs in September this year, the largest decline since March 2023, far below the increase of about 50,000 jobs. Market expectations.
Following the release of ADP data, the market increased its stakes on the Federal Reserve’s October 25 basis points. As of the release, the CME Group data showed that the probability of a 25 basis points rate drop in October was 97.8%, up 10 percentage points from a week ago; the probability of a 50 basis points rate drop this year was also expected to be 85.6%, up 20.2 percentage points from a week ago.
On September 17, local time, the Federal Reserve lowered the target range of the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4%-4.25%, the first interest rate cut this year. At a press conference after the meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that this interest rate cut can be regarded as risk management to some extent, and the Federal Reserve does not want the labor market to continue to weaken. The Federal Reserve's October interest-rate meeting will be held from October 28 to 29 local time.