The cruelty of international politics is reflected in former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
Last December, Bashar, who lost his regime in the nitrogen war, flew to Moscow on a Russian military plane and began his seemingly safe exile.
No one could have imagined that in less than a year, the once-strong man of the Middle East would be in danger of life under the “strict protection” of Russia – because of his rare poison.
Late at night on September 22nd, Moscow time, a secret rescue was carried out in a military hospital on the outskirts of Moscow. The patient was none other than Bashar al-Assad.
According to people familiar with the matter, At that time, Bashar suddenly developed severe coughing and difficulty breathing in the study of his residence, and then lost consciousness. After security personnel discovered it, they immediately called a military helicopter to take him to the hospital. The preliminary test results shocked the doctor: he had a "rare neurosuppressive toxin" in his system that could have been fatal within hours if he had not been sent to the hospital in time.
Videos taken by people in Moscow showed that many military ambulances frequently entered and exited the hospital in those days, and suddenly more soldiers armed with live ammunition were patrolling the surrounding area, and the security level was significantly improved.
What is even more intriguing is that the medical team treating Bashar is all composed of top toxicology experts from the Russian military, and each of them has signed a strict confidentiality agreement. All signs show that this is by no means an ordinary medical incident.
How did Bashar end up in this situation?
When the Syrian civil war broke out again in December 2024, the Bashar regime rapidly collapsed. Long-term support for both Russia and Iran's "shrinking aid": Russia only kept off, and Iran greatly reduced support due to economic difficulties. In January 2025, Bashar secretly assisted the Russian army to escape to Moscow.
When he first arrived in Russia, he was well paid-living in a luxury villa on the outskirts of Moscow, equipped with professional security, and limited contact with exiled Syria officials. At that time, it was widely believed that Russia left this move in order to retain its say in Syria's future politics.
But the political reality is more cruel than the humane warmth.
Almost at the same time as the news of Bashar’s poisoning came, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak announced that Syrian transitional government leader Julian will visit Moscow in October to attend the Russian-Arab summit.
This coincidence completely exposed the turning point of Bashar's fate.
Julani took the initiative to go to Russia, sending a clear signal: the relationship between the new Russian and Syrian regimes is heating up rapidly.
For Putin's government, the core demands are very realistic: Maintaining the naval base of Tartus and the air base of Hemeimim, which is Russia’s strategic hub in the Middle East, to acquire rights to oil and gas fields in Syria, Russia’s gas company has been granted the rights to mining the Gulf of the River for 25 years.。
In contrast, supporting Bashar has changed from a "strategic investment" to a "burden." In addition to bearing the living security costs of their family, more importantly, Bashar has become a "stumbling block" in Russia's cooperation with the new regime in Syria.
According to informed sources, Julani has explicitly requested: The extradition of Bashar al-Assad to Syria for trial is an important condition for the restoration of Russian-Syrian diplomatic relations.
Russia's internal dissatisfaction with Bashar has long been made public.
At the beginning of his exile last year, Russian State Duma member Kuznetsov bluntly said: Bashar should be allowed to go to Donbass to participate in reconstruction, and then consider whether to grant Russian citizenship. The subtext is clear-Russia doesn't raise "idles".
At the time of the poisoning of Bashar, Another Russian lawmaker said privately more bluntly: Bashar is a failure. He should have accepted reality and done some hard work, rather than relying on Russia's support all the time.
This change in attitude is reflected in the official Russian response.
The Kremlin has only one "no comment" on the poisoning; When the spokesman of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs was pressed, he lightly classified it as "private health problems of foreign citizens".
The former allies, now turned into deep hot potatoes.
The death of Bashar is on the verge, and the reaction of the international community is more manifestly cold.
As an important ally of Bashar in the past, Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs only expressed "concern about health conditions" and called for "ensuring personal safety."
Iranian media has suggested that this may be related to some countries’ “approval of the new Syrian regime.”
The new Syrian regime has completely silenced on the matter, while in Syria, the public opinion has been polarized, with supporters grieving that "the national dignity has been undermined", while opponents believe that "the guilt is taken by themselves."
The U.S. State Department only said that it was “attentive to reports” and the EU stressed that “the future of Syria should be decided by the Syrian people”.
The trajectory after the exile of Bashar has already shown signs.
When he last appeared in public in June this year, he was face-to-face, with two previously convicted persons. At the time there were rumors that he was actually in the state of "half house arrest", although Bashar had appeared in the face of rumors, but has since disappeared from the public sight.
It was only after the poisoning that he became the focus again.
In geopolitical games, the fate of exiled politicians is often this: At the time of loss, the city of Corfu.。When the pattern of interests changes, former "important allies" may become "bargaining chips" overnight.
Analysts on the Middle East: For Russia, having a good relationship with the new Syrian regime is more important than maintaining an alliance with a former president in exile.
In the face of practical interests, Bashar's personal destiny has been placed on the back burner.
The encounter with Bashar is a shortcut of the Middle East geo-game.
The so-called "alliance relationship" is essentially an exchange of interests. Once it loses its use value, even the most important pieces may be sacrificed.
At the moment, Bashar’s specific situation remains a mystery, and Russia’s silence makes the events even more intriguing.
But what is certain is that as the relationship between the new Russian and Syrian governments continues to approach, the situation of the former president in exile will only become more difficult.
Do you think Bashar will survive the crisis?Russia will eventually choose to take him asylum or exchange interests.