On September 22nd, a confidential hospital on the outskirts of Moscow suddenly received a special patient: former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. He looked pale and short of breath and was rushed to the ICU. The test showed that the body contained unknown toxins, and symptoms included severe cough, chest tightness and neurological disorders. After 11 days of rescue, he was finally discharged from hospital on October 2nd, but he has not made a public appearance so far. What really made the outside world uproar was not the poisoning itself, but the visiting list outside the ward-my younger brother Maher Assad, commander of the Syrian Republican Guard, was forbidden to visit; Instead, Mansour Azam, the former Secretary-General of the Presidential Palace, was allowed to enter. This arrangement of seemingly medical procedures is widely interpreted as a naked political signal: the power network of the Assad family is being deliberately cut.
A strong man in the Middle East who has been shaped as a “anti-terrorist hero” is gradually becoming an abandoned child in the game of great powers after experiencing the collapse of the regime, exile, and even hospital poisoning.
Poisoning storm: power cutting in hospital bed
Assad’s poisoning appears to be an emergency medical accident, but details reveal an unusual meaning. The method is similar to the “KGB” style of the Cold War, both secret and deadly. The first suspect to come to mind outside is Israel or extremist organizations, but many analysts believe that it is more likely that the internal forces of Russia, or someone deliberately married to Moscow, shake up its remaining ally system in the Middle East.
More symbolic is the visiting list: the last piece of the Assad regime's military puzzle, younger brother Maher, is turned away; However, a secretary-general who was in charge of government coordination was allowed to enter. This choice is highly unusual and obviously "intentional". Maher represents the military power and financial network controlled by the family. If he is isolated, it means cutting off the residual influence of the Assad family. In other words, this is not only an attempted assassination or poisoning, but a political "separation operation": Assad's personal destiny is being redefined under the patronage of Moscow.
The truth of the poisoning incident is still unknown, but public opinion has formed a consensus: no matter who starts, Assad has changed from Russia's former strategic fulcrum in the Middle East to a "diplomatic burden".
From protesters to liquidators: Assad’s political turn
Assad’s trouble did not begin with poisoning, but with the total collapse of the regime. In 2011, the raid in the southern Syrian province of Daraa sparked the flames of protests. Assad chose to repress hard, and has since been labeled “dictator” as “brutal.” More than a decade of civil war, dividing broken Syria, ended with a radical turning point at the end of 2024 – the “Sham Liberation Armed Forces” (HTS) attacked Damascus and Assad escaped.
On September 26, 2025, the Seventh Investigative Court of Damascus issued an absence arrest warrant against Assad, with charges including "pre-murder", "torture to death" and "liberation". This series of charges meant not only symbolic "justice" but also the political liquidation of the new regime against the old regime. France issued an international search warrant against Assad in early September on the grounds of the 2012 assassination of a French journalist. The Ukrainian President Zelensky openly demanded extradition, saying that he was associated with Russia. The United States has not made a clear statement, but let the relevant judicial action continue to advance, and its subtitle is clear: Assad has become another sign of isolating Russia.
For the new Syria government, Assad is not only a former dictator, but also a necessity for them to prove "legitimacy." His existence is itself a shadow of the transfer of power between the old and new regimes.
The Legitimacy Project of Julian
The person who overthrew Assad was Julani, a former leader of the al-Qaeda branch. Many years later, he transformed into a representative of the "moderate opposition" and led HTS all the way into Damascus with Western acquiescence and Turkish support.
Julani knows best that seizing power by force is only the first step, and the real challenge is how to get the international community to recognize him as the legitimate leader. Liquidating Assad is the key to his creation of the legitimacy of the new regime. Through the trial of Assad in absentia, the new regime sent a message at home and abroad: "We are not terrorists, but the rulers who put an end to tyranny."
In exchange for recognition, Julani issued "three letters of vote":
Recognize the Golan Heights as Israel and send a signal to the United States;
Open oil fields on the east bank of the Euphrates River to cater to western energy companies such as Chevron;
Cut off arms passages to Iranian militias to meet the core demands of Israel and the Gulf states.
These actions make Assad a "contrast" to the legitimacy of the new regime. Without Assad, there would be no "revolutionary achievements" of Julani; without the liquidation of Assad, there would be no international endorsement of Julani.
Russia’s Difficulty: The Paradox of Credibility and Interest
Assad’s current presence in Moscow is a product of both the Russian asylum system and its diplomatic difficulties. For the Kremlin, the Tartus Naval Base and the Hermione Air Force Base are Russia’s hubs in the Mediterranean Sea. If Assad is completely abandoned, Russia may lose cooperation with the new Syrian regime; but if it continues to provide him with asylum, it will face even greater international isolation.
The new Chulani regime clearly saw this. They offered Russia a condition: "Hand over Assad and we can guarantee your military presence in Syria." This is a naked deal, but for Russia, it is a dilemma between credibility and interests.
If he hands over Assad, Putin will be able to exchange short-term cooperation and resources, but his long-term credibility will be fatal. Lukashenko in Belarus, military regimes in Africa, and even other allies that rely on Russian protection will question the reliability of Moscow's commitments. On the contrary, if it continues to shelter Assad, Russia will be accused of "harbouring a dictator" and will be more isolated by the West.
As a result, Moscow has chosen the “trick”: on the one hand, insisting that it “does not get along” andins the image of an ally; on the other hand, in exchange for the patience of the new regime with economic aid and arms supplies.
The shadow of external forces.
Assad's fate is not decided solely by Syria and Russia. There are also a group of watching powers handing knives behind him.
Turkey: Erdogan has long provided support for HTS with the aim of overthrowing Assad. But what Turkey really cares about is to prevent Kurdish forces from gaining power. Therefore, they want Syria's political situation to be "controlled chaos" rather than completely unbalanced.
Israel sees Assad’s downfall as an opportunity to curb Iran, take the opportunity to intensify airstrikes on southern Syria and prevent Hezbollah from obtaining weapons through Syria.
US: The Trump administration announced the lifting of the 46-year full sanctions on Syria, retaining only restrictions on the Assad family. Julian responded immediately and sent a letter in exchange for U.S. support. This is not only behind the interests of energy company Chevron, but also the U.S. strategic consideration to weaken Russia and Iran in the Middle East.
The intervention of multiple forces has made Assad’s fate no longer a personal choice, but a by-product of a geopolitical game.
The absurdity of destiny.
The political life of Bashar Assad, from “anti-terrorist heroes” to “seeked prisoners”, took just over a decade and he thought that holding on to Russia could continue his father’s model of rule, but now in Moscow’s hospital bed, it has become a code for negotiations.
His silence is both physical weakness and political aphasia. For Moscow, he has changed from a strategic fulcrum to a burden; For the new regime, he is a certificate of legitimacy; For the West, he is just another card to isolate Russia. The most absurd thing is that his outcome may not be decided by the Syrian people, but will be finalized in the darkroom deal of great powers.
There are roughly three possibilities for the future scenario: first, continue to be sheltered by Russia and end up in a low-key manner; second, be transferred to Iran or Venezuela and become a "sample exile"; third, Russia cannot withstand the pressure, hand it over, and move towards the trial bench of the international court. But either way, Assad is no longer a chess player, but a chess piece.