A bizarre poisoning incident has brought former Syrian President Bassad al-Assad in exile in Moscow into the international focus again, and the biggest suspicion actually points to his asylum.

On September 22, in a highly secret hospital in the Russian suburbs of Moscow, former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was urgently sent to the ICU for sudden severe cough, numbness and nervous system disorders.

The medical test results were shocking: there was an unknown toxin in his system. After more than ten days of emergency treatment, Assad was discharged from the hospital on October 2, but has not made a public appearance so far.

Even more intriguing is the visiting arrangements: his brother Maher al-Assad, commander of the Syria Republican Guard and a former pillar of the family's regime, was denied access to the ward.

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Three main suspects: Who is most likely to attack Assad?

In this confusing poisoning incident, international observers have sorted out three potential perpetrators.

Although current President Julian Assad has taken control of the regime, Assad still has a large number of loyal supporters in Syria.

Some analysts believe that Julian may be concerned about the return of Assad in exile, so he chose to take the first step.

However, the assassination methods commonly used by the Syrian government army and its supported extremist groups are mostly bombing and rarely poisoning.

The Israeli intelligence agency Mossad is also seen as a potential target.The intelligence organization, known for accurate assassinations, has the ability to carry out such actions.

But the strange thing is that after the fall of the Assad regime, the personal grudge between Israel and him no longer exists.

The most terrifying might be the internal forces of Russia.Historical records show that Russian intelligence systems used a lot of "chemical means" to solve political problems in the pre-KGB period.

From Litvinenko to Navalny, there have been several cases of poisoning of famous people in Russia.

02 KGB tactics: Russia's tradition of poisoning

Russian intelligence agencies have a long-standing tradition of poisoning, and their operating methods have distinctive characteristics.

The KGB and its subsequent agencies have extensive experience in the implementation of chemical assassinations, with toxins used often difficult to detect and symptoms simulating natural diseases.

The symptoms of dyspnea and physical weakness of Assad's poisoning are similar to some well-known poisoning cases in history.

Funnyly, there is the notion that there may be a third party that deliberately mimics the KGB and tries to spoil the suspects to Russia, thus disrupting the situation.

Such "false flag operations" are not unusual in international assassinations.

03 Money and politics: Russia's motivations for action

Assuming that Russia is indeed behind the scenes, its motives are worth exploring in depth.

The huge overseas assets controlled by the Assad family may be the primary target. According to estimates by Middle East think tanks, the global assets controlled by the Assad family are extremely considerable.

Before the full-scale civil war broke out in Syria in 2011, it had deployed more than US$10 billion in funds abroad through energy dividends and overseas transfers. Russia has become a key "trusteeship place".

From an economic perspective, if Assad suddenly dies or loses his ability to express himself clearly, his asset management will most likely ¡°naturally flow¡± into Russian official control.

This is happening in the context of Russian fiscal austerity.Since 2022, the direct military spending, subsidies for people's livelihoods and sanctions pressure from the conflict in Russia and Ukraine has risen sharply.

Russia¡¯s defense budget for 2024 has reached a record high, accounting for more than 6% of GDP.

On a political level, Russia may be adjusting its Eastern strategy.Syria¡¯s current president, Julian, plans to visit Moscow in October this year and engage in in-depth dialogue with Russian leaders.

For Russia, choosing to support Julani may be in better strategic interest than continuing to shelter Assad.

04 Geopolitical game: Assad has become a political bargaining chip

Assad¡¯s fate reflects complex geopolitical variations in the Middle East.

As Assad lost control of Syria on December 7, 2024, the Syrian opposition broke the defense line of Damascus, forcing Assad to exile.

Fortunately, Russian troops are stationed and have military bases in Syria, so Assad is protected by Russia and temporarily stabilized.

However, with the rise of Julani, Assad's situation has become complicated. Julani is the leader of the Syria opposition and a key figure in overthrowing the Assad regime.

Today, Russia seems to be getting closer to Julian, making Assad¡¯s future even more uncertain.

Meanwhile, Assad also faces legal prosecution.On September 27, a Syrian court issued an arrest warrant against former President Bashar al-Assad.

The charge was for his 2011 cleansing operation in the Daraa region.

05Allies turn negative equity: the Kremlin's dilemma

For the Kremlin, Assad has gradually changed from an important ally to a political burden.

Russia¡¯s core interests in Syria are the Tartus naval base, Russia¡¯s only military base in the Middle East.

Maintaining a partnership with the new Syrian regime may be more important thanining a personal alliance with Assad.

However, if Russia surrendered Assad or let him be removed, it would seriously undermine Moscow¡¯s international credibility.

This dilemma forces the Kremlin to strike a delicate balance. Some analysts predict that Putin is likely to strengthen control over Assad and strictly limit the scope of his activities to specific regions.

This is undoubtedly a new difficulty for Assad, who is eager to return to his homeland.

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Assad's fate has long exceeded the scope of personal life and death. Banning visits by his brother Maher is actually cutting off the Assad family's last chance of turning the tables.

The man who once claimed that he would "rather die in battle than go into exile" can now only curl up in the shadow of the Kremlin, waiting for the next dose of "treatment" of unknown doses.

History is always so similar: you think you can control everything, but in fact you are just a pawn on someone else's chessboard that is about to be eaten.