The war burns eastward, and the beauty is distracted; China and Russia join forces to stabilize the East
After Russia launched a special military operation on February 24, 2022, the battle line has been stretched for a long time. Up to now, the Russian army is still advancing in the east and has captured 91 square miles of Ukrainian land in the past week. The Ukrainian side suffered considerable losses. More than 1,500 soldiers were killed the day before. The Russians completely controlled the entire territory of Luhansk.
To this day, Russia has used drones and missiles to strike the rear of Ukraine, while Ukraine has relied on Western weapons to fight back, such as using the HIMARS rocket system and drones to attack the Black Sea Fleet. Natural gas supplies in Europe are disrupted, energy prices are flying, and the global economy is swaying.
The United States has stood by Ukraine from beginning to end, with total aid exceeding $130 billion by June 2025, including missiles, armored vehicles and intelligence support. The money was spent, Congress debated several rounds, and the Biden administration and later the Trump team approved additional funding.
But this aid has not allowed Ukraine to overturn, the front is glued, Russia is moving slowly but steadily fighting. The U.S. domestic public opinion is also divided, the support rate drops to about 32%, and people feel that the money is thrown into the water.
After 2022, the two countries signed many agreements, energy trade, military exercises and anything on track. In 2025, a new statement was issued, emphasizing the unlimited strategic partnership, China's imports of Russian oil increased dramatically, the ships crossed the Black Sea canal, and the trade volume rose in a straight line.
Russia relies on the Chinese market to catch its breath, while China stabilizes the backyard of Europe and Asia. Without getting involved directly, you can see the United States running for its life on the other end. Isn't this the doorway to the game between great powers? China promotes the "the belt and road initiative" and launches projects in Central Asia and Europe. Russia provides resource support, and the win-win situation is stable.
The Palestinian-Israeli conflict is similar. After Hamas raided Israel on October 7, 2023, the war lasted for two years. On September 16, 2025, Israel launched a ground offensive in Gaza City. Two troops entered the city and the air force attacked more than 50 targets.
The death toll in Gaza exceeds 65,000, the United Nations committee accuses Israel of its actions, and rescue teams are busy digging debris. Israel advanced into Khan Younis and Rafah, Hamas hid underground tunnels to counterattack, and rockets flew over from time to time. The Red Sea waterway was interfered by the Houthi armed forces, and oil transportation was detoured, and global oil prices rose accordingly.
U.S. aid to Israel is more consistent, with $3.8 billion in military support annually, an additional $17.9 billion from October 2023, and an additional $8 billion in arms sales in January 2025. Iron Dome systems, ammunition and intelligence are all dependent on U.S. supplies.
But there was no progress in this battle. Hamas reorganized its forces, and the ceasefire agreement was signed and then broken. The strategic interests of the United States in the Middle East are tied up, but the resources are scattered, the navy and air force run at both ends, and the domestic budget deficit is even larger.
Help Ukraine spends money, Pakistan tends; the game of great powers, the opportunity to win is hidden
U.S. aid to Ukraine is estimated to amount to $130.6 billion by mid-2025, according to congressional reports and think tank statistics, including missiles, Patriot air defense systems and training support, weapons shipped from U.S. ports, crossed the Atlantic to the Polish border and handed over to Ukrainian forces.
Additional trillions in 2024, Europe-funded Patriots and HIMARS missiles in 2025 also began to arrive. But the Ukrainian spring counterattack failed, the Zaporozhye plain mine, the advance was blocked. Russia destroyed the Khakhovka dam, floods flooded the village, Ukraine logistics trouble. Although the United States has a lot of aid, but the Ukrainian territory losses are not small, four regions in the east are annexed, and Russian influence extends to the Black Sea.
If the United States reduces aid, the Ukrainian defense line will be in danger. The faster the Russian tank formation advances and controls more arteries, the smoother energy agreement between China and Russia will be. China's oil imports from Russia will account for more than 20% of the total in 2025. With a two-pronged approach of pipelines and shipping, the economy will not be affected by the European energy crisis.
Looking at the global landscape, the United States is fighting on two fronts, with budget overspending and high domestic protests. The think tank reported that this consumed the U.S. military production capacity, and the deployment in the Asia-Pacific region slowed down. The Chinese navy cruises normally in the South China Sea, and the air force exercises are as usual. Without distraction, you can see the weaknesses of your opponents.
Moving to Pakistan, the United States' aid to Israel totaled $174 billion in history, adding $17.9 billion from 2023 to 2024, and continuing to batch FMS sales in 2025, totaling $39.2 billion. Including precision guided bombs and drone maintenance, U.S. military technicians went to Israeli bases for deployment.
In March 2025, the Trump administration bypassed Congress with a rapid shipment of 4 billion weapons, which Israel used to push Gaza to dismantle the tunnels for arms, but Hamas rocket counterattacks continued, the conflict spread to the Hussein side of Yemen, and Red Sea ships were attacked.
The United States supports Israel, based on the Middle East strategy, but it also stretches the battle line. The naval fleet runs at both ends of the Mediterranean Sea and the Red Sea, and the air force supports air strikes, so resources are tight. If aid is loosened, Israel is under great pressure, and the regional balance changes, China's investment in the Middle East will rise.
At the 2025 Summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, China and Russia introduced a new global order, developed banking and financing options to help stabilize the economies of members. China's exports to the Middle East increased by 10%, infrastructure projects such as ports and railways started, and Arab countries responded more. Russian and Chinese military exercises more than 113 times, in the past six years intensive, silent coordination.
The double burden of the U.S. appeared in the big games. Ukraine and Gaza both burned money, military spending accounted for more than 3.5 percent of GDP, domestic inflation was pressured. European allies were also tired, the EU aided Ukraine 19.5 billion euros, but the distribution was uneven. China's economy, the GDP growth in 2025 is expected to be 5.2 percent, foreign capital flow is stable, and the internationalization of the RMB is advancing.
Russia relies on the Chinese market to export soybeans and natural gas, avoiding Western sanctions. China's diplomacy is grounded, citing the "community of human destiny", promoting multilateral resolutions at the United Nations, developing countries vote for China more.
The two wars exposed the shortcomings of U.S. unilateralism. Russia pushed forward in Lugansk, Ukraine’s drones countered the Black Sea, but overall Russia took advantage. China observed, did not intervene, and focused on domestic development, high-speed rail and 5G exports globally.
On the Palestinian and Israeli sides, Israel attacked Gaza City on September 16. The United Nations condemned it, but the United States defended it but failed to do so. China proposed a ceasefire initiative, which was supported by 80 countries and surpassed the United States in diplomatic terms. This is the logic of winning without fighting. If the United States loses, the countries in the global South rely more on China, and the balance of the game quietly tilts.
The United States is exhausted by two-track sawing; peace diplomacy is led by China
Looking forward to the second half of 2025, the eastern part of the Russia-Ukraine front will be stable, Russia will control Luhansk, and Ukraine will rely on aid to defend. However, on September 17, Russian drones attacked the city, and Ukraine's losses will continue.
The ceasefire in Gaza is difficult to last long. Israel has launched a ground attack on Gaza City, Palestinians have evacuated south, and the death toll has risen. The United Nations report stated that the conflict caused serious damage to infrastructure and reconstruction was far away. The United States provides assistance to both sides, Ukraine supply trucks transport ammunition, and Israeli ports unload weapons boxes. However, domestic support is low, and congressional hearings add additional funds.
The trade volume between China and Russia will exceed US$200 billion in 2025, energy cooperation will deepen, and China will participate more in liquefied natural gas projects. Joint military exercises at the border, simulating defense, and exchanging equipment. Russia exports a large oil fleet to China, China provides financial support, and bank transfers maintain the flow. This partnership gives Russia confidence and China stabilizes its supply chain without being greatly affected by the fluctuations of war. In the global energy market, China's imports are diversified, domestic oil prices are stable, and people's lives are less affected.
The United States has a two-track sawing, the Navy cruises in the Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea, the Air Force flies from both ends, and military companies work overtime to catch up with production, but their production capacity cannot keep up. Think tank analysis shows that this has distracted the United States 'attention from the Asia-Pacific region. The expansion of China's navy is normal, and the construction of islands and reefs in the South China Sea is advancing. Diplomatically, China attended the summit and proposed a mediation plan between Ukraine and Palestine and Israel, emphasizing dialogue, which was recognized by developing countries. Russia and China have launched new banks in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization to help members avoid crises and expand their influence.
The great powers play to this stage, the United States is weak, China's advantage is now. Economically, China's factories operate, exports to the Middle East of Europe increase, the ratio of RMB settlement increases. Russia relies on the Chinese market, avoiding Western blockade. China pushes green energy cooperation, and Russia signs wind power projects, environmental protection is also affordable. If the U.S. conflict in Pakistan, Iran and Hussein are active, China's mediation space is big, Middle East investment return is high.
On the other side of Ukraine, Russia won 91 square miles in September, pushed Donetsk, Ukraine counterattacked Kursk but had little effect. U.S. aid cost 130 billion, the effect was discounted, domestic voters were dissatisfied. Gaza Israel pushed forward, Hamas reorganized, U.S. intelligence support but regional turmoil intensified. China did not engage in war, focused on Asia-Pacific stability, Taiwan's issue firmly one, and the international community acknowledged more.
This game is grounded, that is, the United States is busy fighting fires, and China is playing steadily. In 2025, global multipolarization will accelerate, China's economy will be the second largest in the world, and its circle of diplomatic friends will be large. The United States loses a game, and its resources are more scattered. China leads global affairs through peaceful development. Join hands with Russia and China, Europe and Asia will be stable, China will benefit the most, and it can win the overall situation without fighting. In the long run, these two wars have shown the world that American hegemony is loosened, China's plan is popular, and China has more say in the future pattern.