On September 25, Ukrainian President Zelensky delivered a speech at the United Nations General Assembly in New York. The tense situation in Russia.Push to the climax again。
In an interview with U.S. media, he clearly warned Russian Kremlin officials that if the conflict is not ended as soon as possible, the Russian personnel could face the risk of becoming the target of airstrikes. “They should check the locations of the air defense shelters, and if they don’t stop the war, they’ll need them.”
These remarks had an obvious meaning of military deterrence, and the information Zelensky immediately revealed made the situation a little more tense- The Ukrainian Army has operational drones with a range of up to 3,000 kilometers.In May, Germany, Britain, France and the United States lifted the range restrictions on Ukrainian aid. Targets within Russia'could soon be hit '。
But he also specifically stressed that Ukraine will not attack civilian targets, "we are not terrorists," trying to set the boundaries for this harsh statement.
Zelensky's warning is not groundless. Behind it is the continued demand for Western assistance.
He mentioned in an interview that he had expressed hope to U.S. President Trump to obtain “ A new weapon system that could speed the end of war“This kind of equipment would force Russian President Putin back to the negotiating table, and Trump responded. “We will try.”, but Zelensky did not disclose specific information about the weapon system.
At the same time, he also responded to Trump's previous accusation of "using conflicts to consolidate power", promising to be ready to step down once the conflict ended. If a ceasefire agreement lasting for several months was reached, he would immediately ask the parliament to organize new elections, trying to add credibility to his military stance with political commitment.
In the face of Zelensky’s public deterrence, Russia responded quickly and harshly.
Medvedev, Vice Chairman of the Russian Security Council, counterattacked that day, pointing out that Zelensky's remarks were essentially provocations relying on U.S. long-range weapons. " He said the Kremlin should know where the defense hole is so that when it uses U.S. long-range weapons, people inside can hide.”。
Then Medvedev threw out a more deterrent statement: " What Zelensky needs to know is that the weapons Russia can use cannot be defended even in bomb shelters. Americans should also remember this”。
The Kremlin’s core official’s words have been interpreted by the outside world as a direct warning to Ukraine and the Western powers behind it, and Russia’s subsequent disclosure of a series of military dynamics has substantially supported the warning.
What attracts the most attention is the "Hazel" hypersonic missile deployment plan jointly promoted by Russia and Belarus.
On September 26, local time, Belarusian President Lukashenko confirmed in an interview with reporters in Moscow that Russia's latest hypersonic ballistic missile system has been shipped to Belarus."It is on its way and everything will go smoothly."
This progress has long been paved. Lukashenko announced in his Belarusian Independence Day speech on July 1 that according to the agreement reached with Putin in Volgograd, The operation will be deployed in Belarus by the end of 2025 as an important step to strengthen national security, defend sovereignty and curb external threats.
Russian President Vladimir Putin also revealed during his meeting in August that the first batch of products of the Hazel Tree missile and its systems have been produced and officially put into the troops. The deployment site has been selected and preparations are advancing. There is a high probability that the deployment will be completed before the end of the year.
This missile, which Russia and Belarus have high hopes for, is by no means ordinary.
Official data show that the range of the "Tree" missile is 5,500 kilometers, exactly within the range of medium-range missiles 500-5500 kilometers, and such weapons are no longer restricted by international agreements after Washington withdrew from the Soviet-era treaty in 2019.
It can fly at a speed of 10 times the speed of sound, or about 12380 kilometers per hour. It takes only about 15 minutes to launch from central Europe to London. If it is deployed in Belarus, which is close to NATO countries, the time to an important US military base in Germany may be shortened to 15 minutes.
More notable is the flexibility of its warhead configuration, which can carry both nuclear warheads and use conventional warheads.
When using conventional warheads, a missile can release up to 36 separate combat units, can hit multiple targets at the same time, Putin has praised its power, saying the destructive force of several conventional strikes can be compared to a nuclear strike.
This is not the first time the missile was unveiled, and in November 2024 the Russian army used a test strike on a Soviet-era missile plant in Dnipro, Ukraine, when it showed powerful destructive capabilities.
In addition to the advancement of the deployment of the "Hazel Tree" missile, Russia has demonstrated in recent military exercises Zircon hypersonic cruise missileIt also demonstrates that the “weapon that cannot be defended” is not a lie.
During the joint exercise "West-2025" held in September, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation issued a statement saying that the Northern Fleet's "Gorovko Navy Chief" escort ship successfully tested a "Moroccan" missile in the Barents Sea, precisely targeting and destroying Mediterranean targets.
This missile has a maximum speed of Mach 9, about 3 kilometers per second, and a maximum range of more than 1000 kilometers. The most critical advantage is its ability to maneuver and change orbit in the atmosphere. This feature greatly increases the interception difficulty of the anti-missile system.
The U.S. Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance analysts believe that its strategic deterrence is derived from this extreme speed and defense capability.
As early as February 2024,"Zircon" was accused by Ukraine of being used in actual combat for the first time. This test launch coincides with the critical stage of the "West- 2025" exercise. The exercise area spans western Russia, Belarus, and parts of the Baltic Sea and Barents Sea. The participating troops reached 13000 soldiers. It also covered many subjects such as anti-sabotage operations and electronic warfare. It is undoubtedly a comprehensive display of its military capabilities.
It is worth noting that in the "West 2025" exercise, the Russian-White Army also specifically exercised the non-strategic nuclear weapons use program and the deployment of the "Tree" missile system, a way to demonstrate the combination of conventional hypersonic weapons with nuclear deterrence capabilities, further strengthening Russia's strategic deterrent signal.
Other dynamics that emerged during the exercises further highlighted the complexity of the situation: 20 Russian drones crossed the Polish border, and Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski referred to the move as a "deliberate probation" against NATO, calling on the Allies to strengthen defence on the eastern flank, despite the Kremlin's rejection of the allegations.
This overlap of border friction with high-end weapons displays continues to increase the risks of the outflow of the conflict in Ukraine.
Back in history, Russia and Belarus have a clear strategic background for strengthening military cooperation.
In the autumn of 2024, Putin and Lukashenko signed a treaty to provide Belarus with security guarantees including the use of nuclear weapons if necessary, and brought Belarus under the Russian nuclear umbrella for the first time. This agreement followed the revision of Russia's nuclear doctrine and directly echoed the tensions between Russia and the West caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Now the deployment of the “Tree” missile is the concrete landing ground for this framework of security cooperation, and Putin has previously clearly warned the West that if NATO member states allow Kiev to use long-range missiles to strike Russian targets, Moscow may use the “Tree” to strike these NATO allies, which makes Zelensky’s reference to “strike Russian targets” more sensitive.
At present, the military confrontation between the Russian and Ukrainian sides has shown normal characteristics.
Just before Zelensky issued the warning, the Ukrainian air force that Russia launched a new airstrike against Ukraine at night, launching three missiles and 115 drones, despite the majority of intercepted, but still killing a civilian in Zaporizhia and Odessa, damaging civilian facilities.
The Russian Ministry of Defense said that its air defense forces successfully destroyed 69 Ukraine drones over its territory during the same period, more than a dozen of which were aimed at the capital, Moscow. Fortunately, the defense system responded promptly without any impact.
This high-frequency drone attack and defense is intertwined with the strategic deterrence of high-end weapons, making the regional security situation full of uncertainty.
conclusion
With the gradual shipment to Belarus of the "Helium" missile, the "Helium" missile completed its practical warning tests, Russia responded to Zelensky's warning of a defence hole with practical actions.
While Zelensky is seeking new weapons assistance, he is also trying to gain international support through political commitments. The statements and actions of both sides have formed a clear confrontational posture.
The international community is concerned that if this cycle of “determination – counter-determination” continues to escalate, it could break the subtle balance of the current conflict, with even more unpredictable consequences.
How to cool down the situation through diplomatic channels and avoid military confrontation breaking through more red lines has become an urgent issue for all countries.