Duterte, 80 years old, was taken to a hospital in a coma, disrupting the course of the international justice process.
According to the latest news, the International Criminal Court has approved its provisional release provisions.
From “exit” to prison?
On September 27, 2025, the 80-year-old former president of the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte, fell into a coma in the International Criminal Court detention room and was urgently taken by an ambulance to a medical center.
Just as the outside world speculated about his life and death, the exclusive report of Manila Times threw out greater suspense.
The ICC has quietly approved the core clauses for Duterte’s interim release, and is being questioned by potential recipients.
From a coma to a prospective release from prison, in just a few days, the 80-year-old's fate is like sitting in a mountain car, and people look blurred.
Duterte was found on the floor of the detention room, when he had lost consciousness and was sent to the medical center, the preliminary judgment of doctors could be linked to long-term malnutrition and worsening of underlying illness.
Sarah mentioned in her statement that her father had a toothache for a month and had no one cared for him. The ingrown nail was so serious that he had difficulty walking. Many applications for 24-hour care were rejected.
However, ICC's response seemed a bit blunt, saying only that all measures had been taken to protect the well-being of detainees, but refused to disclose specific medical details. It also cited the Dutch medical secrecy law to warn family members not to spread unconfirmed information.
The incident spread to the Philippines and immediately sparked a wave of upset.
On September 28th, thousands of Duterte supporters gathered in Davos Square, sitting with the slogan "Let the old duo go home", and police had to set up road barriers to prevent conflict.
Davos is Duterte’s headquarters, and even in prison, family members have taken over the position of mayor and deputy mayor in the mid-term elections in 2025.
Interestingly, on another street in Manila on the same day, thousands of people were protesting against corruption in the Marcos government.
They burned models and blocked roads, and protests spread to Cebu and Davao. Students and workers held up signs saying "Family first, people's livelihood aside" to put the conflict between the two major political families on the table.
And the changes in the attitude of the Marcos government can explain the problem.
Marcos' Art of "Changing Face"
At the beginning, Sarah directly accused the Philippine Embassy in the Netherlands of "welfare visits" as basically surveillance, specifically collecting Duterte's health information and reporting it to Manila.
However, as public opinion fermented, Marcos spokesman Castro suddenly let go on the 27th, saying that the government "did not participate in the trial and did not know about the release, but would respect the ICC's decision".
This softening is not without reasons. The victory of the Duterte family in the mid-term elections and the dismissal of Sarah's impeachment case have weakened the offensive of the Marcos camp. In addition, the family is plagued by corruption cases. To hold Duterte's supporters at this time is tantamount to causing trouble for yourself.
The ICC also has its own calculator.
If Duterte, who is critically ill, is forced to be locked in the detention room, if a person does die, the label of abusing a sick prisoner will definitely not be removed, and criticism from international human rights organizations will be overwhelming.
But if it is agreed to release, the biggest problem is who will receive it.
The United Nations War Crimes Tribunal has learned a lesson. Rwandan suspect Kabuga was finally imprisoned in The Hague for more than ten years because no country was willing to take it.
Fortunately, Duterte's lawyer team quickly gave the direction. The document submitted on September 26th mentioned that Dubai, United Arab Emirates, was willing to accept him, and promised to provide top-level medical treatment and 24-hour monitoring to ensure that he would not escape.
However, judging from the current information, the Netherlands is still the most likely recipient.
As the seat of the ICC, placing Duterte in the Netherlands is equivalent to being under the nose of the court. Whether it is regular reporting or emergency handling, it is much more convenient, and no one can question its legitimacy.
Moreover, there is no need for cross-country transfer, and he can settle in the Netherlands after completing the procedures, avoiding accidents on the road.
As for another potential recipient, the lawyer only said it was a party to the Rome Statute, the name has not yet been revealed, and is estimated to remain an alternative in negotiations with the Netherlands.
Many people are concerned that if Duterte could really get out of jail, would it immediately spark a big wave of political power in the Philippines?
The final battlefield.
It can only be said that there is a possibility, but there is a high probability that the overall situation will not be overturned.
Although he is a man of the hour, he is 80 years old after all, and his health is so poor. Even if he can move abroad, his influence is far less than that when he was at home.
Marcos is now in the hands of the president's power, mostly at the expense of his own people.
The Duterte family is also aware of this, and their current goal is not to strike hard, but to protect.
As long as Lao Du can escape the harsh environment of the detention room, the family foundation can be stabilized.
Everyone in the circle knows that the real battlefield between the two families is the 2028 presidential election.
Duterte's team has long released the wind, saying that Lao Du's last wish is to return to Davao to rest in peace, but the more practical plan is to let Sarah accumulate political capital in the next three years.
Sarah is now the vice president. As long as she can handle people's livelihood issues and expand her support base in recent years, she has a good chance of running for president in 2028.
If you can come to power at that time, you can not only completely reverse the family situation, but maybe you can also re-examine the anti-drug war case of that year. This is the long-term layout of "it's not too late for a gentleman to avenge in ten years".
The most painful now may be the families of those victims of the war on drugs.
They waited for several years for the prosecution to be held, and as a result, they were postponed again and again because of Duterte's health problems.
However, these family members did not give up. Some people said that "if we can wait eight years to see him go to prison, we can wait for him to stand on the trial bench." This kind of persistence adds a layer of justice to this judicial game.
As of the end of September, the ICC had not officially announced the final release decision, and it is said that the results may not be available until October.
But in any case, 80-year-old Duterte has stood at the turning point of fate.
From the arrest at Manila airport to the coma in The Hague, from the charges of three crimes against humanity to the dawn of provisional release, his personal experiences have long gone beyond ordinary cases.
Behind this, there is the swing of international justice between procedural justice and humanitarianism, the dark war of power change between two families in the Philippines, and the expectation of thousands of families for justice.
Perhaps as old people in Philippine politics say, politics in this country has always been full of drama.
Duterte once became a legend with an iron fist to fight drugs, but now he may get a turning point due to health problems.
And the game around the 80-year-old will eventually go where, the 2028 general election will not be the final confrontation, I am afraid there will be time to give answers.
But one thing is certain: no matter where Duterte ends up, this global justice and political thriller has not yet come to an end.
Edited by: Alone