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Editor | L.Y.
Preliminary
There are some things that China cannot do without taking action. For example, this incident in Afghanistan is related to China's strategic interests. We cannot let Trump mess around.
A few days ago, Trump called on the Afghan Taliban government and asked the Atta government to "return" Bagram Air Force Base to the US military. When the Atta government heard this, it immediately became furious. Its officials said: "At worst, we will fight with the United States for another 20 years and never betray any inch of our territory." Trump continues to threaten: If this is the case, something very bad could happen.
The core provisions of the draft resolution directly point to the request of the US military to return to Afghanistan: it clarifies that "any foreign military deployment must obtain the written consent of the Afghan Interim Government." At the same time, it proposes that China, Russia, Iran and Pakistan lead the "multilateral coordination mechanism for Afghanistan's economic reconstruction" to promote the implementation of international assistance. U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas Greenfield issued a statement after the vote, saying that the draft "ignores terrorist threats and limits U.S. military counter-terrorism operations" and insisted that "the Bagram base is crucial to containing regional security risks."
In the closed-door consultations before the vote, the synergy between the positions of China, Russia, Iran and Pakistan was particularly prominent. Russian representative Poliansky cited data on 12,000 weapons left behind when the US military withdrew in 2021, pointing out that "unauthorized troops may intensify armed conflicts." China representative Fu Cong emphasized that Article 2 of the United Nations Charter clearly states the principle of sovereign equality. If the US military returns without Arab consent, it will constitute a "violation of sovereignty."
Iranian and Pakistani representatives cut from energy security and refugee issues respectively — Iranian Foreign Minister Abdulazizyan mentioned the oil pipeline project on the border of the Afghan province of Herat with Iran, saying the military presence could threaten transportation security; Pakistani representatives revealed that after the withdrawal of the U.S. military in 2021, Pakistan has received more than 1.3 million Afghan refugees, and if the situation turbulences, the flow of refugees will increase further.
The attitude of countries that abstained also reflects controversy. Although France, the United Kingdom and other European countries did not oppose it, they demanded in their speeches that "the garrison should be linked to the protection of women's right to education." India, as the rotating presidency of the month, abstained on the grounds of "the need to assess the impact on the geographical pattern of South Asia." The representative of the United Nations privately revealed that India was worried that the return of the US military might affect military and trade cooperation with Russia, and was unwilling to offend the United States and ultimately chose neutrality.
Bagram Base
Trump's request for Atta to "return" Bagram Air Force Base is not a temporary intention. This military facility, located in Parwan Province, Afghanistan, is 60 kilometers away from Kabul and covers an area of 30 square kilometers. It was once the largest strategic fulcrum of the US military in Central Asia. During the garrison from 2001 to 2021, the base could take off and land C-17 transport aircraft and F-16 fighter jets, with 12,000 troops stationed in their heyday. Fighter jets can cover parts of Central Asia, South Asia and West Asia when taking off from here, with a strategic radiation radius of over 2,000 kilometers.
When the U.S. troops withdrew in 2021, although the command center and ammunition depot in the base were blasted, core facilities such as runways and oil depots were still intact. Mohammed Jacob, Minister of Defense of the Afghan Interim Government, revealed at the press conference on September 27th that Atta has invested 8 million dollars to repair the base and transform it into a "National Army Training Center". At present, 2,000 soldiers are deployed to maintain the safety of the traffic line from Kabul to Jalalabad. "There are still four oil depots in the base that can store 5,000 tons of fuel, which are enough to support daily defense needs".
Trump’s public cry had clear political and strategic intentions. On September 25, he first associated the base with China at the Iowa campaign rally, claiming that “the base is only an hour’s flight from China’s nuclear weapons manufacturing region, and the U.S. military must control to contain China.” This statement quickly sparked controversy —— The IAEA website data showed that China’s nuclear facilities are located in the heart of the land, more than 3000 kilometers from the direct line with the Bagram base, and there is no geographical basis for the so-called “one hour’s flight.” The U.S. Department of Defense subsequently tried to mitigate the controversy, saying “the return plan is still being evaluated,” but did not deny Trump’s core claims, this vague attitude further
Atta's "Fight for Another 20 Years": Sovereignty Persistence and Practical Preparations
In the face of Trump's threat, the Afghan Taliban (Atta) responded quickly and tough. On September 26th, Zabiullah Mujahid, spokesman of Atta's interim government, held a press conference in Kabul, making it clear that "Bagram base is a part of Afghan territory and will never be compromised by external pressure", and quoting history as saying that "the Afghan people persisted in the war against the Soviet Union for nine years, fought against the United States for 20 years, and their determination to defend sovereignty will not waver".
This toughness is not verbal deterrence, but is based on actual defensive deployment. Atta has built a triple defense system around the base: minefields and anti-tank trenches are set up within 5 kilometers of the periphery; 12 122-mm howitzers and 8 sets of "Stinger" air defense missiles restored from the legacy of the US military are deployed in the middle level; The core area is manned by elite "Haqqani Network" troops and equipped with night vision equipment and drone interference equipment. Atta insiders told Reuters that the base and surrounding areas have stored ammunition and food to support six months of combat,"enough to deal with small-scale military conflicts."
Domestic public opinion has become an important support for Atta. A poll released by Kabul University on September 27th showed that 82% of the respondents opposed the return of U.S. troops, and 78% believed that "foreign troops will aggravate the plight of people's livelihood". Behind the data is Afghanistan's severe economic situation-a report by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations shows that Afghanistan's food-insecure population will reach 22 million in 2025, accounting for 55% of the total population. People are worried that the return of the US military may interrupt international assistance.
Mujahid also mentioned this reality at the press conference, saying that "what we need is food and medicine, not fighter jets and troops." At the same time, he reserved limited room for consultation."If the United States is willing to provide humanitarian assistance, it can communicate through diplomatic channels., but there is no possibility of negotiation with military presence."
Collaboration with Ibiza.
Before and after the vote of the Security Council, China, Russia, Iraq and Pakistan not only made concerted voices at the diplomatic level, but also implemented their support measures. On September 29th, the four countries held a foreign minister-level consultation on Afghanistan in Moscow. The joint statement issued after the meeting clarified three specific actions: China will restart the Kabul-Kandahar road repair project.
The project passes through the south side of the Bagram base. After completion, it will improve logistics efficiency in southern provinces and is expected to create jobs for 50,000 people; Russia plans to ship 50,000 tons of wheat to northern Afghanistan in October to alleviate famine in Kunduz, Balkh and other provinces; Iran opened the Zaranj border port to increase exports of daily necessities to Afghanistan, and also assisted in repairing the Herat Provincial Hydropower Station to solve the electricity problem of 300,000 local people; Pakistan has promised to simplify transit procedures for Afghan goods and reduce transportation costs from Kabul to Karachi Port.
Behind these collaborations are the practical interests of the four countries. Pakistan Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif bluntly stated during the consultations that if the US military returns to the Bagram base, it "may lead to the influx of more Afghan refugees and increase the burden on Pakistan's economy." Currently, the number of Afghan refugees in Pakistan has exceeded 1.3 million, and US$1.2 billion is needed every year for resettlement. Iran is worried that the troops may affect energy cooperation with Afghanistan. The oil trade between the two countries in 2024 will reach US$800 million, accounting for 15% of Iran's non-OPEC exports. A spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China emphasized at a regular press conference on September 30 that support for Afghanistan is "always based on the principle of sovereign equality without attaching any political conditions," which is in sharp contrast to the US military intervention.
conclusion
The Security Council’s 4:1 vote in cooperation with Russia and China puts the Trump administration in multiple difficulties. At the international level, the United States’ separate opposition has isolated it on the issue of al-Qaeda —— The New York Times quoted the United Ministry of Internal Affairs report as pointing out that seven out of 10 abstentions have privately stated that they “do not recognize the legitimacy of unauthorized U.S. troops”.
Trump’s threat also faces the test of practical effects. Atta has clearly stated “not to compromise because of the threat”, and China-Russia’s aid is gradually easing Afghan people’s pressure and weakening U.S. pressure space. Analysts point out that if the U.S. insists on pushing for the return program, it may face double counterfeiting: one is the intensification of the confrontation with China-Russia, leading to the four countries to further strengthen support for Atta; and the other is to stimulate Atta to take countermeasures, such as attacking U.S. allies bases in Central Asia, or strengthening cooperation with regional armed organizations. This reality constraint leaves Trump’s “hard speech” to stay more on the verbal level, forming a passive strategy of “
Reference source:
https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/web/fyrbt_673021/jzhsl_673025/202509/t20250926_11717872.shtml