According to news reports, a recent shock in the Russian political circle, Putin's old friend, longtime deputy director of the Presidential Office Dmitry Kozak announced his resignation. As the "elder" of the Putin regime, Kozak's resignation not only concerned about the internal part of the Russian political sphere, but also gave the outside world a lot of speculation: in the context of the war situation in the impasse, Russia's domestic and military decisions have begun to move to a situation uncontrollable?
At first glance, Kozak's resignation seems to be just a normal change in officials, but after careful analysis, it is not difficult to find that there is more political information behind this incident. Kozak was not only Putin's right-hand man in the early days, but also played a key role in many major decisions. Since becoming acquainted with Putin in the 1990s, Kozak has always been active at the core of power, participating in many decisions from Russia's domestic reforms to foreign policy. In the "brain" of Putin's regime, Kozak's position is undoubtedly important.
As early as the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 2022, Kozak had been privately opposed to the conflict and said that "this conflict was wrong." In 2025 he also proposed a ceasefire and domestic reform, advocating a peaceful settlement of the dispute.
The military progress of the Russian army has always been the focus of attention from the outside world, especially after the start of the "special military operation." Russia originally planned to use its huge military power to quickly conquer Ukraine. However, so far, Russia's 700,000-strong army has never been able to achieve decisive victory on the battlefield in Ukraine, especially in the capture of Kiev.
First of all, the Russian army's attack was too "benevolent". The Russian army's attacks in the four eastern Ukrainian states often avoid large-scale bombing of infrastructure and even exercise certain restraint in civilian casualties. Such "moral integrity" will undoubtedly slow down the speed of attack in conflicts, especially in areas with a deep Russian cultural background. The Russian army pays more attention to the reaction of the local people in its actions, rather than simply pursuing rapid military results.
In contrast, the Ukrainian army delayed the pace of the Russian offensive by deploying a large number of mines and implementing guerrilla tactics. With the help of Western weapons, the Ukrainian counterattack was also very effective, especially with the help of drones and guided missiles, the Russian armored forces were repeatedly hit. Such complex tactics made it difficult for the Russian army to quickly win the conflict, even if it had an absolute superiority in military force.
Does Kozak's resignation and Russia's plight in Ukraine mean that Putin's political situation is beginning to waver? It is widely believed that political pressure in Russia is gradually increasing, especially when the war is stagnant, and conflicts between the domestic people and political circles may become more apparent. Whether Putin's once-strong leadership can be maintained has also become the focus of attention from the outside world.
Most importantly, the 700,000 Russian troops in Putin’s hands are not Russia’s entire military force. If the situation continues to worsen, Putin would be able to mobilize more troops and possibly even use a reserve force larger than the current size. Therefore, despite the pressure of Russia at home and abroad, Putin still has the ability to continue to maintain control of the situation through military mobilization and political means.
Western media reports of Kozak’s resignation have often linked it to Russian political turmoil, attempting to put pressure on the public opinion by rendering the “Putin regime unstable.” The United States and Europe hope to create a psychological blow to Russia through this move, especially hoping to urge Russia to make strategic adjustments.
Russian domestic media reports of Kozak's resignation are relatively flat, and most view it as a normal turn of office or personal choice of officials, and do not link it to a political crisis. More importantly, the mainstream Russian public opinion does not believe that Kozak's resignation means that Putin's leadership is challenged. Even though he has advocated a ceasefire and domestic reform, these voices remain insignificant in the current situation of the war.
Although Kazak’s resignation has attracted widespread attention, it does not mean the collapse of the Russian regime. Putin remains firmly in control of the Russian political situation, and despite Russia’s military operations in Ukraine, Putin still has the ability to sustain the current situation through domestic and external means. However, the delay in the fighting in Ukraine has paid a huge price to Russia and increased domestic and external pressure. Both domestic economic pressure and continuing Western sanctions have put Putin’s leadership at a severe test. Kazak’s departure may be just a superficial phenomenon, but behind it is a deep political game and power adjustment within Russia, and the future situation is still full of variations.