Having said that, Mongolia always gives people a low-key feeling. It is sandwiched between the two giants of China and Russia. The land is frighteningly large, but its population is only over 3 million, and its economy mainly depends on selling mineral resources. In recent years, some people in the world have been talking about whether Mongolia will become the second Ukraine and be dragged as a pawn by the West to fight against China and Russia, and as a result, it will suffer itself. At first glance, it sounds reasonable. After all, Mongolia has been very close to the United States and NATO in recent years, sending troops to help the United States fight, and engaging in a "third neighbor" policy. But if you think about it carefully, it's not that simple. Mongolia's geographical location is too special, with Russia in the north and China in the south. It has no access to the sea, and its economic lifeline is all in the hands of China and Russia. If it really wants to be a "nail" inserted between China and Russia, it may end up worse than Ukraine, because it does not have the backing of Europe like Ukraine, and it does not have the strength to confront China and Russia head-on.

First of all, Mongolia is the satellite state of the Soviet Union, and since its independence in 1921, the Soviet Union has always followed the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union has helped it to build industry and help, Mongolia has been industrialized very quickly, the city population is half, the standard of living in Asia is not bad. But the Soviet Union has collapsed, Mongolia has become blind. After 1991, the economy has collapsed directly, the unemployment rate has risen to two numbers, and the government has not even issued official employees. Russia at the time has been confused, and has not managed to manage Mongolia. Mongolia has only turned its head to help others, democratic transformation, and entered the market economy. Since then, its diplomacy has been adjusted: balancing Russian influence, finding "third neighbors" as a

Cooperation between Mongolia and the United States began since the establishment of diplomatic relations in 1987. At that time, the Cold War had just ended, and the United States took a fancy to the position of Mongolia and wanted to intervene in the backyard of China and Russia. In 1998, U.S. Secretary of State Albright visited Mongolia, and Mongolia provided high-level reception. In 2000, the U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense went to activate a security mechanism and gave Mongolia millions of dollars in weapons aid every year. Mongolia also reciprocated by sending troops directly to follow the United States during the 2001 Afghanistan War and the 2003 Iraq War. Some U.S. allies give verbal support, but Mongolia is good for its soldiers to go to the battlefield, patrol the desert, and stand guard on the streets of Baghdad. Bush was stunned and said that Mongolia responded faster than its allies. In 2005, Bush visited Mongolia to promote the US-Mongolia Free Trade Area. Although Mongolia's trade value is not great, the United States is seeking political influence.

In recent years, the US-Mongolia relationship has been upgraded to a "strategic third neighbor partnership." In 2023, the Prime Minister of Mongolia visited the United States and signed a joint statement with Harris. In 2024, Blinken will visit Mongolia to discuss cooperation in minerals, energy, and education. Mongolian President Khurelsukh said that the United States is one of Mongolia's diplomatic priorities, and praised the United States for helping Mongolia expand relations in the Indo-Pacific strategy. The aid given by the United States to Mongolia is not only money, but also military experts training soldiers and conducting border security exercises, saying that it is not aimed at third parties, but everyone knows that it is aimed at China and Russia. The Mongolian army has only 20,000 people in total, and its equipment is backward, but it has been slowly modernized through the United States and NATO. Since 2003, Mongolia has sent more than 1,300 soldiers to participate in NATO operations in Afghanistan, and also helped the United States train troops.

Mongolia has been working with NATO since 2005 and joined the ¡°Individual Partnership Program¡± in 2012 as Australia, South Korea and Japan. NATO has helped Mongolia reform national defense university courses, teaching English and improving teaching methods. Since 2019, Mongolia has also trained officers. The Mongolian President attended the NATO Summit in 2010 and the Chicago Summit in 2022 as a ¡°Peace Partnership State¡±. NATO looks at Mongolia¡¯s geographical location and wants to use it to engage China and Russia. Mongolia is also happy because it can reduce its reliance on Russia and seek security from NATO. In 2021, NATO has strengthened defense cooperation with Mongolia, talking about women, peace and security, climate change, emergency management, human rights security and defense networks. At the Summit in Vienna in 2023, NATO has reiterated its concerns

But Mongolia is not stupid enough to be one-sided. Its diplomatic principles are "openness, non-alignment, multi-fulcrum, and maintaining a balance between China and Russia". With Sino-Russian relations, it pays more attention to economy. Mongolia has a single economy, relying on the export of copper, gold, uranium and coal. In 2023, the GDP will only be US $19.8 billion, equivalent to RMB 146.6 billion, less than one tenth of Inner Mongolia's. Inner Mongolia's GDP in 2023 will be 2.5 trillion yuan, and Ordos alone will be dozens of times higher than Mongolia's. Mongolia's trading partner, the first is China, accounting for more than 90% of exports, and all coal and minerals are sold to China. The second is Russia, which imports all oil and gas from Russia. If Russia stops supplying, Mongolia will be paralyzed. In 2024, Mongolia will talk with Russia about the "Power of Siberia 2" natural gas pipeline, which will run from Russia to China via Mongolia. In September 2025, the Russian state-owned energy company said it had signed a legally binding agreement to build the pipeline. Mongolia wants to earn transit fees from it and deepen China-Mongolia-Russia cooperation.

Mongolia also plans to build roads and railways to connect China and Russia. In February 2025, the Mongolia government said it would expand railway connections with China, which was finalized during the Prime Minister's visit to China. Mongolia knows that resource exports depend on the China market, and China industries need Mongolia's coal and rare earths. In the first five months of 2024, Mongolia traded with 145 countries, but foreign trade cannot be separated from China and Russia. Australia's Rio Tinto Group's Oyu Tolgoi copper mine in Mongolia is exported to China. China welcomes Western investment in Mongolia because it does not threaten China's security interests.

Mongolia balanced between China and Russia and was quite clever. In history, it was afraid of being controlled by the great powers. In the Soviet era, it was a buffer zone. After the Second World War, the Soviet Union invested 37 billion rubles in aid to build industry, but the purpose was to control. In the Yalta Conference in 1945, Stalin and Roosevelt and Churchill spoke about the status of Mongolia, and the referendum was decided. In August 1945, the Soviet Friendship Treaty, China recognized Mongolia's independence, in exchange for the Soviet Union did not interfere with Xinjiang, did not help other forces. After independence, Mongolia went with the Soviet Union, in the 1960s, the Soviet-Chinese relations were tense, and it was hostile to China. After 1990, it studied Western democra

Mongolia is now neutral towards the Russia-Ukraine conflict. When Russia and Uzbekistan started fighting in 2022, Mongolia was shocked and divided into pro-Russia, pro-Uzbekistan, and neutral factions. It abstained at the United Nations and did not condemn Russia. In September 2024, Putin visited Mongolia. Mongolia did not execute the ICC arrest warrant, although it was a member of the ICC. A spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine said he was disappointed that Mongolia had not "committed suicide" for Ukraine. Mongolia knows that its economy relies on Russia and cannot afford to offend it. Senior Russian officials have warned that the United States wants to turn Mongolia into Ukraine. In September 2023, after Vice Chairman of the Russian State Duma visited Mongolia, he said that the United States was active in Mongolia and wanted to use Mongolia to confront China and Russia. Putin visited Mongolia in September 2024 to attend the 85th anniversary of the Battle of the Halshin River. He also reminded Mongolia not to get too close to the West.

Will Mongolia really become the second Ukraine? Most analyses say it is impossible. First of all, the geographical location is different. Ukraine relies on Europe, has the backing of NATO and the European Union, and can use weapons to fight Russia. Mongolia has been surrounded by China and Russia and has no way out. Once relations deteriorate, trade will be cut off and its economy will collapse. NATO cannot save it, and the United States is beyond its reach. If Mongolia announces its accession to NATO, China and Russia will go crazy. Russia views Mongolia as a "sphere of influence," and China also views Mongolia as a buffer zone. Mongolia has weak military strength and joining NATO has great symbolic significance and cannot actually help. NATO will not really accept Mongolia because it is too far away and has no strategic value. The Prime Minister of Mongolia visited the United States in 2023 and said that the United States is the "strategic third neighbor," but the United States is the "guide of the democratic journey." Mongolia knows that U.S. aid is conditional and not in vain.