All Europe owes Poland a "thank you"! If it hadn't foolishly blocked the China-Europe train for 11 days, China's Arctic route and southern corridor wouldn't have been fully fired so soon.
(Source: The Paper News-China-Europe freight trains were suddenly cut off for 11 days, and strategic backup must be accelerated)
A geopolitical betting that lasted for 11 days, which was intended to capture the large artery of Asian and European trade, resulted in the "Ulon" event that accelerated its marginalization.
The prelude of this drama was opened by 300 trains and goods worth 25 billion euros stagnant on the border, but its final chapter was that the Arctic route broke the ice and sailed, and a new hub in Central Asia quietly rose. This is not only a plot of leverage failure, but also an extreme stress test and hard-core upgrade of the Eurasian logistics network.
On September 12, the Polish government announced the closure of key ports with Belarus "unlimited" on the basis of joint Russian-Belarus military exercises and drone incidents.
But the outside world can see clearly that this is more like a political abacus. The real goal is directed at China, in an attempt to exchange economic chips in rare earths, agricultural products and other fields. Belarusian President Lukashenko hit the nail on the head: Poland is just taking chestnuts out of the fire for the interests of other countries.
What's ridiculous is that not long ago, China and Poland just signed an agreement to ensure the smooth flow of trains. In the blink of an eye, Poland's commercial reputation as a logistics hub collapsed overnight.
The cost was extremely heavy. As Europe's largest reloading hub, the Malashevic Port once undertook 90% of Europe's reloading tasks, but now it has been instantly paralyzed, directly causing the local unemployment rate to surge by 15 percentage points. Potential revenue of more than 2 billion euros per year is wasted, not to mention the additional cost of stationing 40,000 troops at the border.
When Poland thought it could choke the supply chain by the throat, it seriously underestimated the resilience of global networks. The China-Europe train, the main line carrying more than 10% of the freight trade volume between China and Europe, was cut off, and the chain reaction quickly detonated.
Tens of thousands of containers accumulated, and European companies lost as much as €1 billion a day. At the peak of Christmas stockpiles, the German industry was about to break parts, and the stockpiles of French retailers sounded alarm.
In the face of the trouble, cross-border e-commerce platforms such as Temu and Shein can only bear the headache of the high transition fees, while some companies turn to air or sea spending directly grew by more than two per cent. This 15% increase in comprehensive cost has become a stone in everyone's hearts. However, it is this extreme pressure that gives rise to amazing creativity.
Over the ruins of the old channel, new power centers are rising.Kazakhstan has become the biggest unexpected winner of the crisis, taking advantage of the historic opportunity to jump from a transit country to a new Eurasian logistics core.
It is that in just six months, the Central Asian country has benefited as much as $1.8 billion. At the same time, the Dostoevsky port in its territory has also taken advantage of the opportunity to upgrade, successfully reducing the transfer time from 72 hours to 48 hours.
China’s reaction was even more surprising. Chengdu, Xi’an, Wuhan, Yueyu and other companies quickly launched emergency plans. A “Rail Sea Transport” route through St. Petersburg, Russia, was activated, and more strategically, the “Benjamin Canal” in Central Europe was strengthened.
This new artery crossed the Caspian Sea through Kazakhstan and then Turkey and Hungary into the heart of Europe, completely breaking the single dependence on Poland.
The most dramatic scene takes place in the cold Arctic, where a new high-speed channel turns from an idea to a reality in just ten days.
The “Istanbul Bridge” cargo ship, filled with Europe’s urgently needed “New Three” energy storage cabinets, power batteries and so on, departed from Ningbo Mountains port and reached the UK in just 18 days, 22 days faster than the traditional Suez Canal route, and even a week faster than land routes.
This crisis has also reshuffled the port landscape in Europe. The port of Hamburg in Germany and the port of Rotterdam in the Netherlands have greatly increased their throughput because they can directly undertake the goods of new routes, and successfully bypassed the land bottleneck in Eastern Europe. Even Kyrgyzstan, a country with low participation in the past, has increased its exports to China by 30% through the new branch line.
On September 23rd, after Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held talks with Polish Foreign Minister and both sides reiterated their willingness to ensure the smooth passage, Polish Prime Minister Tusk announced that he would reopen the port at midnight the next day, but he still did not forget to add the phrase "reserve the possibility of closing it again in the future".
However, the world has long been different when the fence of Malacevic has risen again.A more dynamic and resilient transport network has been shaped in the crisis.
The blockade leverage of Poland eventually crashed at its own feet. Not only did it not drive any profits, but instead became the best assistant to the rise of competitors. These 11 days prove a simple logic: in today's globalized world, the flow of capital and goods can always find new rivers, and any man-made obstacle will eventually only turn itself into an island.
(Source: The Paper News-China-Europe freight trains were suddenly cut off for 11 days, and strategic backup must be accelerated)
A geopolitical betting that lasted for 11 days, which was intended to capture the large artery of Asian and European trade, resulted in the "Ulon" event that accelerated its marginalization.
The prelude of this drama was opened by 300 trains and goods worth 25 billion euros stagnant on the border, but its final chapter was that the Arctic route broke the ice and sailed, and a new hub in Central Asia quietly rose. This is not only a plot of leverage failure, but also an extreme stress test and hard-core upgrade of the Eurasian logistics network.
On September 12, the Polish government announced the closure of key ports with Belarus "unlimited" on the basis of joint Russian-Belarus military exercises and drone incidents.
But the outside world can see clearly that this is more like a political abacus. The real goal is directed at China, in an attempt to exchange economic chips in rare earths, agricultural products and other fields. Belarusian President Lukashenko hit the nail on the head: Poland is just taking chestnuts out of the fire for the interests of other countries.
What's ridiculous is that not long ago, China and Poland just signed an agreement to ensure the smooth flow of trains. In the blink of an eye, Poland's commercial reputation as a logistics hub collapsed overnight.
The cost was extremely heavy. As Europe's largest reloading hub, the Malashevic Port once undertook 90% of Europe's reloading tasks, but now it has been instantly paralyzed, directly causing the local unemployment rate to surge by 15 percentage points. Potential revenue of more than 2 billion euros per year is wasted, not to mention the additional cost of stationing 40,000 troops at the border.
When Poland thought it could choke the supply chain by the throat, it seriously underestimated the resilience of global networks. The China-Europe train, the main line carrying more than 10% of the freight trade volume between China and Europe, was cut off, and the chain reaction quickly detonated.
Tens of thousands of containers accumulated, and European companies lost as much as €1 billion a day. At the peak of Christmas stockpiles, the German industry was about to break parts, and the stockpiles of French retailers sounded alarm.
In the face of the trouble, cross-border e-commerce platforms such as Temu and Shein can only bear the headache of the high transition fees, while some companies turn to air or sea spending directly grew by more than two per cent. This 15% increase in comprehensive cost has become a stone in everyone's hearts. However, it is this extreme pressure that gives rise to amazing creativity.
Over the ruins of the old channel, new power centers are rising.Kazakhstan has become the biggest unexpected winner of the crisis, taking advantage of the historic opportunity to jump from a transit country to a new Eurasian logistics core.
It is that in just six months, the Central Asian country has benefited as much as $1.8 billion. At the same time, the Dostoevsky port in its territory has also taken advantage of the opportunity to upgrade, successfully reducing the transfer time from 72 hours to 48 hours.
China’s reaction was even more surprising. Chengdu, Xi’an, Wuhan, Yueyu and other companies quickly launched emergency plans. A “Rail Sea Transport” route through St. Petersburg, Russia, was activated, and more strategically, the “Benjamin Canal” in Central Europe was strengthened.
This new artery crossed the Caspian Sea through Kazakhstan and then Turkey and Hungary into the heart of Europe, completely breaking the single dependence on Poland.
The most dramatic scene takes place in the cold Arctic, where a new high-speed channel turns from an idea to a reality in just ten days.
The “Istanbul Bridge” cargo ship, filled with Europe’s urgently needed “New Three” energy storage cabinets, power batteries and so on, departed from Ningbo Mountains port and reached the UK in just 18 days, 22 days faster than the traditional Suez Canal route, and even a week faster than land routes.
This crisis has also reshuffled the port landscape in Europe. The port of Hamburg in Germany and the port of Rotterdam in the Netherlands have greatly increased their throughput because they can directly undertake the goods of new routes, and successfully bypassed the land bottleneck in Eastern Europe. Even Kyrgyzstan, a country with low participation in the past, has increased its exports to China by 30% through the new branch line.
On September 23rd, after Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held talks with Polish Foreign Minister and both sides reiterated their willingness to ensure the smooth passage, Polish Prime Minister Tusk announced that he would reopen the port at midnight the next day, but he still did not forget to add the phrase "reserve the possibility of closing it again in the future".
However, the world has long been different when the fence of Malacevic has risen again.A more dynamic and resilient transport network has been shaped in the crisis.
The blockade leverage of Poland eventually crashed at its own feet. Not only did it not drive any profits, but instead became the best assistant to the rise of competitors. These 11 days prove a simple logic: in today's globalized world, the flow of capital and goods can always find new rivers, and any man-made obstacle will eventually only turn itself into an island.