The Spring Boy.
The so-called "honeymoon period" between Putin and Trump came and went quickly, just like a short summer shower. The core of this great power game surrounding the Ukraine crisis has been from the beginning It has nothing to do with personal pleasure, it is all naked profit calculation.。
This time Putin and Trump have completely broken down! On Russian Unity Day, Putin delivered a speech to 140 million people across the country. For the first time, he did not mention domestic unity. Instead, he concentrated all his firepower on "new Russian regions" such as Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. His sentence "Every inch of land we defend with our blood will never be surrendered to others."On the surface, it is said to listen to Ukraine, in fact, it is going to Trump.
The fuse of this break dates back to the secret meeting in Alaska on August 15th. At that time, Trump's team excitedly came to the door with a "ceasefire plan", hoping that Putin could cease fire before the end of the year, so that he could impact the 2028 general election as a "peacemaker". Unexpectedly, Putin didn't buy it at all. Not only did he refuse to meet with Zelensky, he also threw out a series of tough conditions: the Ukrainian army must withdraw from Donbass and the ownership of Crimea must be recognized. This is tantamount to directly smashing Trump's dream of "peace halo".
In September, he ripped off the “neutral mediator” mask and not only met Zelensky at the summit, but also declared that Ukraine had “the full capacity to recover all territory”. Cruise missiles with a range of more than 2,000 kilometers.——If this thing is true, Moscow is within the range of attack.
In the face of this threat, Putin's reaction was tough as a textbook level.The speech ended in less than 48 hours, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced. Fall conscription of 135,000 troopsAt the same time, the draft budget for 2026-2028 shows that Russian defense spending will break through the percentage of GDP. 8%, far exceeding the current 3.5% in the United States. This clearly tells the world: Want to fight a protracted war? I will fight it to the end!
The most worrying thing is the competition at the level of nuclear deterrence. Putin recently issued an ultimatum to the United States on the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, requiring "reciprocal compliance" or it may not renew it. This may sound like discussing a treaty, but the subtext is clear: If the United States really dares to give Ukraine the weapons it can fight against Moscow, The collapse of the global nuclear weapons system is not possible.。
For Putin, controlling the “New Russia region” is not only about territory, it is also a symbol of the “Russian rejuvenation” and the foundation of his rule; and Trump is planning elections from the beginning to the end – first to earn political capital by “promoting a ceasefire” and immediately to replace the “anti-Russian hardships” with conservative voters. When Putin's territorial bottom line hits Trump's electoral needs, the so-called "Tep honeymoon period" is naturally vulnerable.
Now the situation is slipping into a dangerous abyss: the United States is accelerating the arming of Ukraine, Russia is building its entire wartime economy, Europe is forced to follow the money, and on the land of Ukraine, young lives and urban ruins are still increasing. The arms merchants make a lot of money, but the people pay a heavy price for it.。What is even more terrifying is that the role of the United Nations in mediation is weakening, countries are forced to take sides again, and the international landscape is increasingly showing a camp trend during the Cold War.
The breakup drama between Putin and Trump has long gone beyond the scope of bilateral relations and is dragging the whole world into the whirlpool of uncertainty. When the rules of nuclear arms control are facing collapse, and when regional conflicts turn into great power wrestling, everyone has to think: Where will this intensifying confrontation take us?