A tug-of-war in Eastern Europe has been fought until now, and no one expected it to be so stalemate. Faced with layers of containment, Russia is still arching forward. Chinese people always feel a little familiar when they look at this matter. The big stick of Western sanctions is swinging happily, but Russia has withstood a lot of pressure, not only a military contest, but also a contest of will.
Russia-Ukraine tug-of-war resilience emerges
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict began on February 24, 2022, and more than three years have passed, the Russian army on the battlefield is still advancing in several directions, although the pace is not fast, but does not stop. On September 26, Russia continued its offensive operations in the Novopavlovsk direction, and no new progress was confirmed, but the overall situation remained stable.
Ukraine was hit by a major Russian airstrike on September 28th, with more than 600 drones and missiles crashing down, killing at least four people, a crash around Kiev. This battle has now been fought, Russia has controlled Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye and Helsinki four regions, outside Crimea, the total area of about one-fifth of Ukraine. Russia is slowly advancing, but can still bite twenty square kilometers per week, September 16 to 23 took 28 square kilometers, a little less than the previous week, can also explain the problem.
Economically, assets are frozen, oil prices are limited, technology is blocked, but the Russian economy has not collapsed. In the first half of 2025, the Russian GDP is expected to decrease by 1.9%, more than three times more than the original plan, the fiscal deficit is widened, the military industry absorbs too many resources, the local economy is a little depressed. But backwards, Russia turns to the Eastern market, energy exports around the Middle East and Asia, oil output falls, but the dollar loss is also bitten to the teeth. The debt burden drops to the lowest in the three countries, foreign debt / GDP is only 20%, more than the U.S. 100% and our 80% is much lower. This relies on spending, accelerating debt repayment, the Treasury Department watches the accounting,
China-Russia trade became a key support. In the first half of 2025, bilateral trade volume fell by 9.1%, totaling $1064.8 billion, China imports fell by 9.6%, but energy and mechanical parts were still the main force. In July, China exported $90.8 billion to Russia, imported $101 billion, trade deficit was $9.77 billion, and the overall scale was close to $2500 billion, Russia is China's sixth largest trading partner, China is its number one buyer.
Historical backstab alerts the dream of a big country
In the late Soviet Union, Gorbachev wanted to reconcile with the West, and on February 9, 1990 he talked with U.S. Secretary of State Baker about reunification of Germany, verbally promised that NATO would not expand, in exchange for the promise of aid. In July, in the Kremlin, Bush feasted, announced the dissolution of the Warsaw Treaty, Bush nodded his head to economic support, and the whole world looked. As a result, in 1991, the aid program was submitted to Congress, the three-billion-dollar framework included funding and trade, could be a high-level rumor, all yellow. Jeffrey Sachs, then Harvard professor, commissioned by the U.S. government, went to the Soviet Union, drafted reports, calculated data, and thought that it could help the Soviet Union pass
After the disintegration, Yeltsin came to power. In the 1990s, he privately supported NATO's eastward expansion, but also tried to build relations. At the Warsaw Summit on August 25, 1993, it said that it did not oppose Poland's accession to NATO; in 1994, it submitted a letter of intent for cooperation in Brussels; at the Madrid Summit in 1997, it signed the founding bill with Clinton. On the surface, it was harmonious, but the actual eastward expansion list has been decided. Sachs continued to serve as an economic adviser to Yeltsin, promoting privatization and learning from the Polish model, but Western aid fell through again and all proposals were rejected. He resigned in 1993 and transferred to the United Nations to reflect on the shortcomings of privatization and advocate public ownership of energy to ensure security. Over the years, Russia's economic shock therapy has closed factories and chaos on the streets, and the aid promised by the West has become empty talk.
Both the Soviet Union and Russia tried to compromise, in exchange for economic backfires and empty security windows. Russia spans Europe and Asia and wanted to integrate into the European family, but its cultural closeness could not stop it from being ostracized. Yeltsin approached NATO three times at that time, but they all hit a wall. In 1997, the NATO-Russia Founding Act was signed, but it was actually a helpless move. Yeltsin privately called it "forced one step."
The great powers insist on multipolarity.
The victory in Russia has inspired China a lot. We are the world's second largest economy. Faced with U.S. containment, the key is to learn from Russia and persist in struggle and uncompromising. Seeking peace through struggle will lead to peaceful survival; seeking peace through concession will lead to peaceful death. This saying cannot be more accurate now. Although Russia's economy will shrink in the first half of 2025, its low debt and the eastward shift of trade prove that self-sufficiency and mutual holding of partners can withstand pressure.
In the multipolar world, major powers contain and support each other. China stands in the east, Russia is in Central Asia, and small countries in the Middle East take root under the tree. They are not afraid of the West's words. On the other side of North Korea, it has been self-sufficient for decades, but it has been poor and has not collapsed. Russia has learned to reduce its debt. In 2025, its foreign debt will be the lowest, its wealth will be real and silver, and it does not rely on borrowing to live a life. China promotes domestic demand, becomes self-reliant in science and technology, localization of chips, and exports electric vehicles, and its economic circle is expanding.
Insisting on non-compromising, China will be able to lead the wind of multipolarization and promote the building of a community of human destiny.