Preliminary

On September 26, the European Union announced the highest tariffs on Chinese steel. 50% tariffMexico is synchronized. Motor tariffsmentioned to 50%.

Within a short month, 28 countriesSubsequently, restrictive measures were introduced, and the tariff rate rose from 10% to 10%. 145%, involving Trade volumeMore than trillion.

Why did Trump change the go-it-alone model? This round The siegecan How long lasts？

Trump changed his move: pulling 28 countries to form a group to encircle China

has changed . Trump isThe game has completely changed.

I used to scream.” America First"He is now wooing allies everywhere, putting on a Collective siegeThe posture.

This time it was no longer a single-gun war, but a carefully planned war. Multilateral encirclement。 The United States, the 27 European Union countries, and Mexico and other followers formed a huge 28-nation alliance.

First look at the new tricks on the U.S. side. The Global Supply Chain Security FrameworkThey set the course for the entire operation.

The goal is clear: limit investment in China and require it to be taken out before October Unified Tariff List。

In order to get everyone to move, the big stick of threats is always raised. For example, directly warn Mexico: If you do not cooperate with restricting China products, your products sold to the United States will be prepared to receive them. 30% tariff。

The EU is proactive, directly announcing plans to impose tariffs on Chinese steel products. 50% penaltiesLocal priority clauses were also quietly added to government procurement.

What's even more interesting is that the European Commission took the initiative to launch an investigation into China Electric vehicle countervailing investigation, no member state companies have filed complaints at all, and the political implications are self-evident.

Mexico has been the most active partner.” The Urgent PioneerIt announced a maximum of 50% tariff on automobiles and parts for countries that have not signed a free trade agreement with them, mainly on China.

This is a cruel move, which is to cut off the entry of Chinese products through Mexico North American industrial chainThe road of.

Within the G7, Japan and Canada took the lead in stating that they would implement the first round of tax increases in November. Trump even shouted directly through social media to increase the levy on China 50% to 100% tariffsAnd the end of the Russian conflict hangs on the hook.

There is really a market for this bond. 18 NATO countriesExpressed willingness to consider the proposal. The UK is particularly positive, announcing plans to increase taxes on Chinese steel by 60% in October.

The European Union is at the forefront, but Germany is in debt.

This looks like.” Unite as one"Big network, as soon as you look closely, you can see how chaotic the lines inside.

The political glue cannot cover the profound differences between member states. Contradictions of economic interests。

The industry’s biggest backlash. German automobile giants, such as Volkswagen and BMWSimply sitting in anxiety.

Their survival is heavily dependent on the Chinese market, and they are very concerned that countermeasures will hit their heads. Trade protectionismOf opposition.

On the other side of Italy, the associations of small and medium-sized enterprises also rushed to fear that their country's chemical and machinery industries would be severely damaged, and publicly protested the EU's tariff policy.

This sentiment even affects high-level decision-making. At the G7 meeting, France and Italy explicitly requested that a 3 to 6 months.The tariff transition period, so that the domestic enterprises have a buffer.

In addition to industrial interests, there are more realistic ones. Energy issuesWhen the United States attempted to politicize energy security, Hungary and Slovakia immediately openly opposed it.

They emphasized that this matter is related to the national economy and people's livelihood and cannot be used as a geopolitical bargaining chip. This directly exposes the American style Security Binding Strategy.of the limitation.

Even more interesting are those "passive obeyers" and "opportunists."Mexico appears to be obedient, adding heavy taxes on Chinese cars.

But privately, in the first half of this year, the proportion of Chinese goods re-exported through third-party channels rose instead of falling, which became a huge " The grey path."。

South Korea's recent imposition of temporary anti-dumping duties on China's stainless steel plates has also been widely viewed as a gesture under US-Korean negotiating pressure, rather than a genuine desire to circumvent.

Countries like Vietnam, because their supply chains with China are too tight, simply choose Deepening of cooperation, has no intention of completely following the pace of the United States at all.

In the end, this so-called encirclement is more like a group of people with their own small AbacusA temporary worker, not a piece of a strategic alliance.

China breaks the game with three measures: pork, rare earths, and pecan

In the face of this overwhelming "circle of siege", China's response strategy is far from simple. Tooth tooth."。

It is more like a three-dimensional toolbox, launching a precise and asymmetric exercise from the three dimensions of law, economy and diplomacy. Systematic countermeasures。

First the feast.” Sword of RulesYes, the draft amendment of the Foreign Trade Act was submitted, which is equivalent to building a stronger legal shield for yourself.

Authorizing governments to counteract foreign entities and individuals that endanger national interests, by the way, discourages those who want to help.” take advantage of the loopholes“The third party.

Externally, a formal complaint was filed at the WTO against the EU's electric vehicle countervailing case. This move is to pull the dispute from a pure confrontation of strength back to Multilateral rule frameworkdown to resolve.

You talk about politics, I talk about rules. The second is to show " Spear of Precision"China's economic leverage has been used extremely hard, specifically seven centimeters.

For example, in April, we announced seven categories of medium weight for uranium and uranium. Rare Export Controls, which directly choked the U.S. military and high-tech industries.

Even the F-47 fighter program is said to have been affected, and on a political level, China has been stopping its procurement since May. American soybeans。

This seemed to be just ordinary trade, but boxing was played on the Trump administration’s agricultural state boxing warehouse, full of killing power. 6 US companiesIncluded in the list of unreliable entities.

For the European Union, launched a Provisional anti-dumping measures on pork; For Mexico, an investigation into trade and investment barriers was launched, and an anti-dumping case was also filed against pecan produced in the United States and Mexico.

This "you hit yours, I hit mine" strategy realizes the impact of specific countries and industries Precision strikeAvoid a full war.

Finally, it is the strategic expansion of the "strategy of breaking the circle". When Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Poland, he said, " No way to compromise.Throwing the sound.

While calling for the EU to remain strategically autonomous, this is undoubtedly the consensus within the differentiated alliance. More importantly, China is actively building a parallel to the "circle of encirclement". Network of Cooperation。

Through the "the belt and road initiative", the upgrading network of free trade agreements and currency swap mechanism, China's "circle of friends" is also expanding.

Abacus mistyped? The encirclement may collapse from the inside first

Looking back, the Trump administration carefully woven this year " The web of stress“It looks structurally fragile, far from looking so terrible.

Because of its profound and irreconcilable conflicts of interests, it is difficult to form a lasting joint force. China, on the other hand, relies on huge economic resilienceAnd a systematic multi-dimensional response strategy.

Showed a strong ability to break the game. It didn't fall into the rhythm of confrontation set by the opponent, but calmly played a set Combination boxing。

The winner of this game has long been not about who can pull more allies in the short term, or who puts more pressure on.

Who can build a more inclusive and resilient Global Network of Economic RelationsTrade with ASEAN exceeds billions and cooperation with Africa and Latin America is deepening.

These are all hedging against external pressure and expanding a broader strategic space for themselves. From the data point of view, China has been More than 120 countriesThe largest trading partner.

This is not an objective reality that tariff wars can change. The EU's economic downturn, the industrial chain is blocked, and prices are rising, which are rooted in the backlash of sanctions against Russia.

But putting the bills on the head of China is actually a transfer of internal contradictions. Right-wing forces came to power, governance crisis highlighted, and the EU used it." China threat theoryReduce internal disputes.

China counter-precision, targeting EU pork and Mexico restrictions to safeguard industrial interests. 4 million jobs。

Nearly 300 billion euros of goods are digested every year. Trump's style of play has changed, pulling 28 countries to contain it, but China shines its sword and makes the losses clearly calculated.

The EU and Mexico are highly dependent on China for manufacturing, and tax increases will only exacerbate inflation. Trump pushes for a transatlantic alliance, but the EU wants a better position, but it has to pay more.

Mexico is in the backyard of the United States and does not move freely. This tax increase is more due to the situation. In the final analysis, only those who can be stable and go far can dominate the future Order。

In this turbulent era, the real power is not in how much noise we make, but in whether we can deliver better. alternative。

conclusion

This seemingly huge encirclement actually exposes the dilemma of unilateralism and the complexity of multilateral cooperation.

The real problem is not who can attract more allies, but who can build a more resilient global network of economic relationships.