On the global scale, the Russian-Ukrainian war has been delayed for more than three years, NATO's weapons shipping to Ukraine has not broken down, and Russia is exhausting its efforts.
The cooperation between China and Russia involves many areas of energy and trade. If Russia really cannot withstand it, the risks in these areas will directly affect China. China has a long way to deal with it, and the key lies in three things.
The first thing is to set up a geo-defense line and stop the risks outside the door.
If Russia defeats, the West will probably stretch the corner toward Asia, Central Asia is an important passageway to the west of China, and also a key node of the "Belt and Road", here is unstable, and there will be a lot of trouble.
Now China and Central Asian countries have not only been cooperating in business, but also advancing security collaboration, such as patroling the borders together, and communicating information against risks.
There are also many infrastructure projects that bind the two sides more tightly, such as power stations and railways. If Central Asia can stabilize itself, it will be difficult for the West to intervene.
The cooperation mechanism in the region has also been adjusted, and new partners have been incorporated, and we have discussed matters and solved problems together, which is much more efficient than before.
In this way, Central Asia has become a line of defense in the west. No matter how the outside shakes, China's geopolitical security in the west has a bottom.
China-Russia-Mongolia cooperation in the north is also going deeper. After all, this is an important direction to prevent risks in the north.
The three countries now have new cooperation on energy pipelines, and Russia will send more natural gas to China in the future, much larger than before.
More importantly, these energy transactions are not settled in U.S. dollars, but in yuan and rubles, and even if the West wants to do a small financial move, it will not affect the energy supply.
For the section of the pipeline passing through Mongolia, safety protection is also arranged, including drone inspections, intelligent equipment monitoring, and three parties on duty together, so that safety can be guaranteed.
The supporting railways are also advancing, and in the future the shipping of goods between the three countries will be more convenient, the cost will be reduced, the trade exchanges will be more smooth, the tighter the bond between the three sides, the more stability in the north will be guaranteed.
On the east side of Northeast Asia, there must also be a buffering approach, focusing on the Russian Far East, here and in the northeast of China, stability is crucial.
Now China and Russia have a plan to cooperate in the development of Black Blind Island, not just mining resources, but engaging in hydrogen and the digital economy, these new industries, to help Russia stabilize the development of this side.
At the same time, China has also strengthened cooperation with North Korea, such as sending some food and energy, and promoting railway intermodal transport among the three countries, so that logistics and energy in Northeast Asia can be transferred.
From west to north and then to east, with such a circle of defense, even if Russia is defeated, China's geopolitical security will not cause any major problems.
The second thing: building a safe base, not afraid of hardness.
The geopolitical defense line depends on external cooperation, but its own security capabilities are fundamental, so China has not relaxed in this respect.
This year's investment in national defense is a little more than last year's, with emphasis on equipment and forces that can cope with new battlefields, such as the research and development of weapons suitable for modern warfare.
In the air, fighter jets that can cooperate with drones and missiles that can stealth and penetrate are all advancing. Even if NATO expands eastward, the air pressure can be withstood.
Border prevention and control is also being upgraded. For example, anti-drone equipment has been installed in key areas. Lasers and electronic interference are used together to stop swarm attacks.
Military training is also closer to actual combat, drawing on a lot of international experience to ensure that it can withstand real situations.
Finance is also well prepared. If the West wants to cut off payment channels, China's own cross-border payment system can also be used to ensure that trade is not affected.
There are also reserves of strategic resources, which are the “backbone” for tackling the crisis.
In terms of energy, the state's oil and gas reserves have been sufficient for the past few months, and a reserve that can be flexibly scheduled has been built, where the lack of capacity is rapidly adjusted, not afraid of short-term supply cuts.
Key minerals such as cobalt and lithium have also signed long-term supply agreements with foreign countries. Coupled with domestic reserves, the new energy industry will not be suspended.
On the food side, they grow enough to eat, and also import more soybean from Brazil, Argentina and other places, not afraid that others use food cards for the neck.
These reserves are put together, and even in a crisis, the basic supply can remain stable.
The third thing: strengthen economic resilience and not be afraid of external containment
Once security is stabilized, the economy's ability to resist risks must also keep up, otherwise it will easily panic when external pressure is exerted.
China is now focusing on domestic demand while expanding external demand, and neither side is biased.
In terms of domestic demand, a lot of support has been given to small and medium-sized technology enterprises and manufacturing industries, and tax cuts and fee reductions have helped them withstand the pressure. Advantageous industries such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaics are still rushing to the global market.
In terms of external demand, the focus is not only on Europe and the United States, but also on cooperation with ASEAN and Africa, and exports to these places have increased considerably in the first few months of this year.
It has also upgraded the free trade agreement with many countries, and the "Belt and Road" is also linked to the African free trade zone, and the more convenient it will be to do business in the future, the more diverse the market, the stronger the resistance to risk.
The financial side is also looking for breakthroughs, no longer relying on the dollar.
Now many cross-border trade began to settle in yuan, such as energy transactions with Russia, and the sale of crude oil from Kazakhstan, the yuan is increasingly used.
The digital renminbi is also being tried to be used in cross-border transactions, which can reduce the risk of exchange rate fluctuations and bypass traditional payment restrictions.
Shanghai's financial center is also expanding its influence. Enterprises from many countries come here to do RMB business. International capital is becoming more and more confident in the Chinese market, and the amount of A shares held by foreign capital has been rising.
In this way, even if the West wants to block its finances, China has its own path to go.
In global cooperation, China is also striving for more voice and no longer listening to others.
For example, a special fund has been set up in the World Bank to help developing countries carry out livelihood projects, and it has also taken the lead in formulating rules for digital trade and green energy to make its own voice heard.
Cooperation with developing countries is also getting deeper and deeper, sending food and energy, and helping them build vaccine research and development centers to deal with problems together.
Cooperative banks in the region are also being established. In the future, it will be more convenient for Eurasian countries to cooperate in financing, and there is no need to look at Western financial institutions anymore.
Step by step, it will not be so easy for the West to impose unilateral sanctions, and China's economic environment will be more stable.
conclusion
Russia's defeat is still only an assumption, but China has long prepared for the worst. It does not respond blindly, but has clear ideas.
From geopolitical defense lines to security foundations, and then to economic resilience, these three things are interlocking to form a complete response system.
China does these preparations, not to challenge, but to preserve its own development achievements, as well as to make the global pattern more stable.
After all, in the present world, only ourselves are sufficiently prepared to not panic in the change, but can also contribute to the stability of the world.