Autumn was supposed to be the season of harvest, but for farmers in the Midwest of the United States, it became a "no-one to pay for the harvest."
Once the most generous buyer suddenly took his hand, the scene can be said to be "beans not moved, the heart has been messed up". and Trump sitting in the White House orange office, watching the mountains of soybeans, finally unable to press, and actively shouted to China "buy a little."
China is very simple, the conditions are on the table, the tariffs are not lifted, let's not talk. The soya behind this seemingly simple deal, but in fact is a concentrated projection of the Sino-U.S. game.
“Golden Beans” not sold.
In the main soybean region in the Midwest of the United States, this year’s harvest is said to be “temporarily rainy”, but the market is frozen like a pool of water.
Local soy storage warehouses have long been full of work, many farmers have to put the harvest outdoors, eyes open and watch the beans mould and degradation. these were originally to send to China soybeans, but now there is no way out.
Life for American soybean farmers is becoming increasingly difficult. Originally, relying on exports to China, the soybean industry has supported the economies of many states in the central and western regions. Nowadays, exports are cut off, and local agricultural machinery manufacturers, grain processing plants, and transportation companies are all in a downturn.
Farmers have no orders in their hands, their wallets are tight, and small shops in the town have closed down, and the whole agricultural ecological chain is quietly stalling.
This "soybean shortage" is not sudden, but the result of the gradual fermentation of Sino-US trade friction. On the surface, it is the purchase order zeroing; From a deeper perspective, it is the break of trust in the supply chain.
American farmers originally thought that the political wave would not affect their fields, and the result was the biggest "victim" overnight. soybeans can not be sold, loans are not yet, the next season should not be planted, became the biggest problem in front of their eyes.
Trump naturally knows the seriousness of the problem. Soybean farmers are not ordinary agricultural groups, they are the "ballast stone" of votes. If these people defect, the desk in the White House will be unstable.
So he began to speak frequently, hoping that China would re-purchase, and even hinted that farmers could be subsidized through tariff revenue. But the problem is, farmers are not fools. What they want is the market, not subsidy checks.
China hasn’t relied on U.S. beans.
China's sudden "failure" may seem like a last-minute initiative, but in fact it is the result of step-by-step efforts. In recent years, China has completely "de-Americanized" its soybean supply chain.
South America has become a new main battlefield, especially Brazil, which has now become almost the number one supplier of soybeans to China. There, soybean planting area continues to expand, port transportation capabilities are upgraded, and the pace of meeting China's needs is becoming more and more precise.
This “supplementary cooperation” has led many Chinese importers to feel that Brazil is more like a reliable long-term friend than the U.S. is engaged in political pressure.
In addition to Brazil, China is also located in Argentina, Uruguay, and even African countries such as Ethiopia and Mozambique have been included in the network of agricultural cooperation.
Although the export capabilities of these countries are not as good as those of South America, they are superior in their large potential and low costs, and they are an important supplementary force in the future.
More importantly, China is not only "changing suppliers," but also "cutting demand." By improving feed formulas, promoting low-protein feeds, and developing local alternatives, China is gradually reducing its reliance on imported soybeans, especially soybean meal.
The feed structure of the breeding industry is also quietly transforming. It no longer relies on a high proportion of soybean meal, but uses more domestic raw materials. Although this transformation is less conspicuous, the effect is tangible.
From the perspective of economic accounts, the current price advantage of U.S. soybeans is no longer obvious. Due to the additional costs caused by trade frictions, the terminal price of American beans to China is much higher than that of Brazilian beans.
And in the price-sensitive import market, who is cheap, who is good to use, who is stable, who can occupy the market.
China's conditions are clear, Trump has little choice
Trump wants to get China back to buy beans, China has not closed the door, but the threshold is clear: tariffs should be lifted, trade policy should be stable.
China's Ministry of Commerce made it clear at a regular press conference at the end of September: If the United States really intends to promote soybean trade, it must first remove those unreasonable trade barriers.
This is not complicated or ambiguous.The Chinese side is not "to buy", nor is it "to gamble not to buy", but is talking about something that is not normal - to do business and tell the rules, no one does business without saying the rules.
Trump’s response was the old way: using subsidies to “reassure” farmers, promising to take a portion of tariff revenues to support the soybean industry.
But the reality is that U.S. farmers have already eaten a loss of "oral subsidies".The round of the trade war in 2019 they waited for subsidies, and the result was that market share was completely robbed by South America and has not yet been able to get back.
Now, Trump is coming up with the same scenario, will farmers believe it again?The news from Kansas, Minnesota, etc. is that the patience is running out.
Many farmers' organizations have publicly stated that the government should not use them as bargaining chips in political negotiations. What they want is a stable market and long-term cooperation, rather than a policy of being led away every three days.
And China's attitude here is obvious: willing to cooperate, but not accept strong buy and sell. You want to sell beans can, provided that you have to remove those on the head "trade sticks". otherwise, the market has a choice, not your family.
Trump’s request for China to buy soybeans is not just an economic “bean deal” but a political “game project.”
Through years of layout, China has turned the soybean supply chain into a diversified, stable and controllable system; However, the United States is still counting on a subsidy to clean up the mess.
Today, soybeans are piled in warehouses and farmers are in dire straits. Trump can only watch as his approval rating slowly drains.
If China responded passively in the past, now it is making an active choice. The direction of this game may have long been written in the mountains of soybeans.
Source:
U.S. soybean farmers suffered a "devastating blow": Even if an agreement is reached with China, they will not be able to catch up with this year's harvest season September 28, 2025 12:48 Observer.com